A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper predicts run times for Gaussian chemistry code.
What predicts the evolution over time of subjective well-being? We correlate the trends of subjective well-being with the trends of social capital and/or GDP. We find that in the long and medium run social capital largely predicts the trends of subjective wellbeing in our sample of countries. In the short-term this rel…
Machine learning improves accuracy of running gait event detection from tibial acceleration.
We propose a real-time context-aware learning system along with the architecture that runs on the mobile devices, provide services to the user and manage the IoT devices. In this system, an application running on mobile devices collected data from the sensors, learned about the user-defined context, made predictions in…
Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situ…
Randomly chosen support makes sparse linear regression easy.
Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring…
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
Extracting actionable intelligence from distributed, heterogeneous, correlated and high-dimensional data sources requires run-time processing and learning both locally and globally. In the last decade, a large number of meta-learning techniques have been proposed in which local learners make online predictions based on…
We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to the possibility of identif…
Running high-resolution physical models is computationally expensive and essential for many disciplines. Agriculture, transportation, and energy are sectors that depend on high-resolution weather models, which typically consume many hours of large High Performance Computing (HPC) systems to deliver timely results. Many…
We examined the use of three conventional anomaly detection methods and assess their potential for on-line tool wear monitoring. Through efficient data processing and transformation of the algorithm proposed here, in a real-time environment, these methods were tested for fast evaluation of cutting tools on CNC machines…
The dynamic emulation of non-linear deterministic computer codes where the output is a time series, possibly multivariate, is examined. Such computer models simulate the evolution of some real-world phenomenon over time, for example models of the climate or the functioning of the human brain. The models we are interest…
Study shows HFT benefits large traders under certain conditions.
Classical time series models forecast Bitcoin prices and volatility accurately.
This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the time-series, Bayesian tools are used for model fitting, prediction, and feature selec…
New algorithms improve time series prediction with uncertainty quantification.
FOLKLORE algorithm speeds up online multiclass logistic regression.
We propose a machine learning approach to address a key challenge in materials science: predicting how fractures propagate in brittle materials under stress, and how these materials ultimately fail. Our methods use deep learning and train on simulation data from high-fidelity models, emulating the results of these mode…
Trading styles affect long-run variance of asset prices, increasing under trend-following and decreasing under mean-reverting.
Compressive image recovery is a challenging problem that requires fast and accurate algorithms. Recently, neural networks have been applied to this problem with promising results. By exploiting massively parallel GPU processing architectures and oodles of training data, they can run orders of magnitude faster than exis…
Deep learning predicts baseball home runs with better accuracy.
Proposes online conformal prediction method with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
PureTS uses simple linear models to improve long-term time series forecasting.
This paper improves SGMs by using a predictor-corrector scheme to converge faster.
Enhanced ad event prediction boosts performance.
In this paper we describe a novel implementation of adaboost for prediction of survival function. We take different variations of the algorithm and compare the algorithms based on system run time and root mean square error. Our construction includes right censoring data and competing risk data too. We take different da…
Clusters of withdrawals emerge in banks due to latent fragility.
Machine learning models accurately predict the state and dynamics of reactive mixing.
New method combines model forecasts and real-time observations for hourly wind speed predictions.
Improved TreNet for trend prediction in time series data.
New compression technique reduces RNN size by 2-4x without sacrificing accuracy.
New method reduces neural image compression run-time by 50%.
Graphical heuristic reduces and partitions large datasets for faster supervised training.
Managing data storage growth is of crucial importance to businesses. Poor practices can lead to large data and financial losses. Access to storage information along with timely action, or capacity forecasting, are essential to avoid these losses. In addition, ensuring high accuracy of capacity forecast estimates along …
This paper proposes a method for estimating the effect of a policy intervention on an outcome over time. We train recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on the history of control unit outcomes to learn a useful representation for predicting future outcomes. The learned representation of control units is then applied to the t…
The objective for this work is to develop a data-driven proxy to high-fidelity numerical flow simulations using digital images. The proposed model can capture the flow field and permeability in a large verity of digital porous media based on solid grain geometry and pore size distribution by detailed analyses of the lo…
In online advertising, display ads are increasingly being placed based on real-time auctions where the advertiser who wins gets to serve the ad. This is called real-time bidding (RTB). In RTB, auctions have very tight time constraints on the order of 100ms. Therefore mechanisms for bidding intelligently such as clickth…
tsbootstrap handles time series uncertainty without assuming independence.
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which the return growth depends…
Freezing intermediate layers reduces DNN inference latency.
Study optimal control of diffusion processes with infimum or supremum costs.
We demonstrate a simple strategy to cope with missing data in sequential inputs, addressing the task of multilabel classification of diagnoses given clinical time series. Collected from the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at Children's Hospital Los Angeles, our data consists of multivariate time series of observat…
Improved SVRG for quadratic functions achieves better performance and running times.
Deep neural networks reduce weather forecast uncertainty estimation costs.
We provide scientific foundations for athletic performance prediction on an individual level, exposing the phenomenology of individual athletic running performance in the form of a low-rank model dominated by an individual power law. We present, evaluate, and compare a selection of methods for prediction of individual …
FastCPH efficiently predicts survival times using neural networks.