The paper uses stochastic control to analyze interest rate markets with roll-over risk.
problem Analyzing interest rate markets with roll-over risk without classical arbitrage assumptions.
method Stochastic optimal control problems with power-type objective functionals.
result Endogenously determined funding-liquidity spread.
Study evaluates technical trading rules on various markets, introduces DFRD+/- method.
problem Evaluating the profitability and robustness of technical trading rules across different markets.
method Investigated 21,000 technical trading rules on 12 markets over 12 years, introduced DFRD+/- method.
result DFRD+/- method is adaptive and more powerful, accommodating discrete p-values.
Paper forecasts stock correlations using a hybrid model combining graph neural networks and transformers.
problem Improving stock correlation forecasts for better portfolio management.
method Hybrid model combining Transformer and graph attention networks for forecasting residual deviations from historical data.
result The hybrid model reduces correlation forecasting error compared to rolling-window estimates.
Study on rolling of 2D and 3D manifolds, identifying orbit dimensions.
problem Understanding rolling dynamics of 2D and 3D manifolds with constraints.
method Modeling rolling as a control affine system on a fibered space Q, analyzing reachable sets.
result Identified possible dimensions of non-open rolling orbits: 2, 5, 6, 7.
Robotics: Rolling robots on a moving platform can be controlled.
problem Controlling the motion of rolling robots atop a moving platform.
method Developed a mathematical model and demonstrated simulations.
result Platform acceleration can control robot's heading and motion.
Proposes a model for long-term electricity contracts with explicit computation and easy calibration.
problem Non-storability and poor liquidity in long-term electricity markets.
method Multi-factor polynomial framework for explicit computation of forwards, risk premium, and correlation.
result Calibrated model provides a risk-minimizing hedge for various time horizons.
Derives new equations for stochastic volatility models.
problem Modeling local-stochastic-volatility models and their derivatives.
method Conditional forward equation, Dupire stochastic PDE, rolling expiry vanilla option SPDE.
result New equations for LSV models and their derivatives.
Derives new equations for volatility models and option pricing.
problem Modeling and pricing options in local-stochastic-volatility models.
method Develops conditional forward equations and Dupire stochastic PDEs.
result Derives new SPDE for vanilla options.
Study extremal trajectories of a rolling disk using geometric control theory.
problem Optimizing the motion of a vertical rolling disk.
method Geometric control theory and symmetries of geometric structures.
result Demonstrated computations in Maple for extremal trajectories.
Framework improves ETF volatility forecasting by adapting to market conditions.
problem Challenges in volatility forecasting due to shifting market conditions and varying model performance.
method Risk-sensitive specialist routing using online risk-sensitive evaluation and state-dependent gating.
result Reduces forecast loss by 24% and underprediction loss by 22% compared to rolling-best baseline.
In this paper, we consider two cases of rolling of one smooth connected complete Riemannian manifold (M,g) onto another one $(\hM,\hg)$ of equal dimension n≥2. The rolling problem (NS) corresponds to the situation where there is no relative spin (or twist) of one manifold with respect to the other one. As for…
XGBoost predicts NEPSE Index log returns with low error and high directional accuracy.
problem Forecasting daily log-returns in the NEPSE Index with high accuracy.
method XGBoost machine learning, feature engineering, hyperparameter optimization, walk-forward validation.
result Optimal XGBoost configuration achieves lowest log-return RMSE and MAE.
Analyzes K-homology classes of singular complex spaces.
problem Analyzing K-homology classes of singular complex spaces.
method Examines various L2-∂ complexes and their rolled-up operators. result Analytic K-homology classes of singular spaces can be related to their birational invariants.
TOLD++ improves convergence of diffusion models by critically damping the forward transition matrix.
problem Improving the convergence of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models.
method Critically damping the Third-Order Langevin Dynamics (TOLD) forward transition matrix using eigen-analysis.
result TOLD++ converges faster than TOLD, verified on toy and real datasets.
New classification of conformal structures with maximal G2 symmetry.
problem Classifying conformal structures with maximal G2 symmetry. method Complete local classification of homogeneous 4D split-conformal structures.
result Established a complete local classification of conformal structures with maximal G2 symmetry. We study the control system of a Riemannian manifold M of dimension n rolling on the sphere Sn. The controllability of this system is described in terms of the holonomy of a vector bundle connection which, we prove, is isomorphic to the Riemannian holonomy group of the cone C(M) of M. Using Berger's list, we…
QNA uses quantum-inspired density operators to diagnose market dependence and structural risk.
problem Lack of unified operator representation for market dependence and structural risk diagnostics.
method Quantum Network of Assets (QNA) framework using density operators.
result QNA entropy remains strongly related to covariance spectral entropy but becomes distinct with multi-feature rolling trajectories.
We give a description of Nurowski's conformal structure for some examples of bracket-generating rank 2 distributions in dimension 5, aka (2,3,5)-distributions, namely the An-Nurowski circle twistor distribution for pairs of surfaces of constant Gauss curvature rolling without slipping or twisting over each other. In …
Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency basis (i.e. a spread applied to one leg of a swap to exchange one floating inter…
Explains rolling of symmetric spaces on flat spaces.
problem Clarifying the difference between two types of rolling.
method Detailed explanation and illustrative examples.
result Theoretical results complemented with examples.
ERDM integrates rolling forecasts with diffusion models for complex dynamics.
problem Forecasting complex dynamics with rolling forecasts and diffusion models.
method Adapting EDM components for rolling forecasts, introducing novel loss weighting, efficient initialization, and hybrid architecture.
result ERDM outperforms diffusion-based baselines in 2D Navier-Stokes simulations and ERA5 weather forecasting.
AlphaZeroBeta uses deep reinforcement learning for market-neutral portfolios, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Traditional portfolio management methods often fail during market regime shifts or when assumptions break down.
method Combines a composite reward function and CNN-GRU policy trained end-to-end via Recurrent PPO.
result Achieves higher Sharpe ratios than baselines while maintaining near-zero benchmark correlations.
Study on rolling Stiefel manifolds with specific metrics.
problem Intrinsic and extrinsic rolling of Stiefel manifolds with α-metrics. method Investigation of intrinsic rolling of normal naturally reductive homogeneous spaces, derivation of ODEs for rolling, and explicit solutions.
result Explicit solutions for intrinsic and extrinsic rolling of Stiefel manifolds.
A new model for curves on manifolds using rolling operations.
problem Modeling curves on manifolds without explicit parametrization.
method Using rolling operations to construct Gaussian processes on manifolds.
result Conditions for the rolling of mean to equal Fréchet mean and estimators of parameters.
The Blaschke rolling disk theorem is extended to non-convex domains.
problem Classical inclusion principle for non-convex domains.
method Geometric conditions based on curvature, algorithm for decomposition.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for rolling disks in non-convex domains.
RGRR allocates between QQQ and DIA based on relative states, improving Sharpe and CAGR.
problem Optimizing ETF allocation between QQQ and DIA for better risk-adjusted returns.
method Screened relative and macro states, globally screened interactions, fixed position mapping, walk-forward validation.
result RGRR improves Sharpe and CAGR compared to 100% QQQ and 50/50 QQQ-DIA allocations.
Local equivalence found between maximally symmetric rolling and flat Cartan distributions.
problem Establishing local equivalence between maximally symmetric rolling and flat Cartan distributions.
method Using complex parametrisation of su(2), a change of coordinates maps the maximally symmetric rolling (2,3,5)-distribution to the flat Cartan distribution. result Local equivalence between maximally symmetric rolling and flat Cartan distributions established.
Generalized Blaschke rolling theorem for curved spaces.
problem Extending classical theorem to curved spaces.
method Generalization to Riemannian manifolds with bounded curvature.
result Sharp results in arbitrary dimensions, new even in constant curvature spaces.
Rolling two hyperboloid surfaces is described using a Monge normal form.
problem Describing the rolling motion of hyperboloid surfaces.
method Parametrization of sl2 using unimodular fractional linear transformations. result Found a Monge normal form for the rolling of hyperboloid surfaces.
Shapes can roll downhill following any curve, but often return to initial orientation after crossing multiple copies.
problem How to design shapes that roll downhill along a given curve and its translations.
method Analyzing the geometric properties and motion of shapes on inclined planes.
result Most curves allow shapes to roll downhill following them and their translations, but some require crossing multiple copies.
In the present work we define the rolling of one pseudo-Riemannian manifold over another without slipping and twisting. We compare the definition of the rolling without slipping and twisting of two manifolds isometrically embedded into a pseudo-Euclidean space with the rolling defined only by the intrinsic data, namely…
Study rolling dynamics with random slipping and twisting using large deviation principles.
problem Analyzing the stability of a rolling model with random slipping and twisting.
method Modelled as a stochastic differential equation on the orthonormal frame bundle, examined via large deviations.
result Proved large deviation principles for projection curves and their horizontal lifts on the base manifold.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
Rollings of reductive homogeneous spaces are studied using intrinsic curves.
problem Investigate rollings of reductive homogeneous spaces without slip and twist.
method An intrinsic point of view, considering rollings as curves in the configuration space Q tangent to a certain distribution. result Explicit solutions for rollings of m over G/H are obtained for specific cases. New method for rolling bodies on inclined planes, with applications to rescue operations.
problem Constructing solid bodies rolling along curves on inclined planes.
method Rigorous existence theorems and connections to maritime rescue operations.
result Comprehensive existence theorems for rolling bodies on inclined planes.
In the present paper, we study the infinitesimal symmetries of the model of two Riemannian manifolds (M,g) and (M^,g^) rolling without twisting or slipping. We show that, under certain genericity hypotheses, the natural bundle projection from the state space Q of the rolling model onto M is a principal …
Develops high-order geometric integrators for nonholonomic systems.
problem Simulating nonholonomic mechanical systems with preserved geometric properties.
method High-order geometric (pseudo-variational) integrators for nonholonomic systems.
result Preserves the geometry and constraints of nonholonomic systems.
Study rolling control of Lorentzian manifolds on flat space.
problem Complete controllability of rolling Lorentzian manifolds.
method Examining the holonomy group of the distribution encoding rolling constraints.
result Rolling problem is completely controllable if and only if the holonomy group equals SO0(n,1). We relate a Chaplygin type system to a Cartan decomposition of a real semi-simple Lie group. The resulting system is described in terms of the structure theory associated to the Cartan decomposition. It is shown to possess a preserved measure and when internal symmetries are present these are factored out via a process…
Proves isometric correspondence of leaves for generic rolling distributions.
problem Isometric correspondence of leaves in generic rolling distributions.
method Uses Bäcklund transformation for proof.
result Requires Bäcklund transformation for isometric correspondence of leaves.
We give a complete answer to the question of when two curves in two different Riemannian manifolds can be seen as trajectories of rolling one manifold on the other without twisting or slipping. We show that up to technical hypotheses, a rolling along these curves exists if and only if the geodesic curvatures of each cu…
Framework for causal signals in non-stationary financial markets.
problem Constructing causal signals in non-stationary financial time series.
method Combines normalized indicators and causally computed derivatives, with hysteresis-based decision mapping.
result Demonstrates risk-reshaping effect with smoother trajectories and reduced drawdowns.
Study forecasts commodity options' implied volatility using Nelson-Siegel factors.
problem Predicting implied volatility in commodity markets.
method Rolling out-of-sample forecasting with Nelson-Siegel factors.
result Nelson-Siegel factors improve forecasting accuracy for energy and precious metals options.
New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.
problem Traditional claims reserving methods are limited in individual claim prediction.
method Restructured data utilization for CL prediction, using multi-period factors.
result Neural networks applied for individual claims reserving.
Given any smooth plane curve α(s)representing a mirror that reflects light the usual way and any radiant light source at a point in the plane, the reflected light will produce a caustic envelope. For such an envelope, we show that there is an associated curve \b{eta}(s) and a family of circles C(s) that roll on \b{eta}…
Dancing polygons and rolling balls linked via a special geometric distribution.
problem Understanding the geometric and mechanical relationship between dancing polygons and rolling balls.
method Mapping dancing polygons to trajectories of a rolling ball on a 3D surface, both described by a specific geometric distribution.
result Non-degenerate dancing pairs of polygons exist for all n≥6 and correspond to rolling ball trajectories. DBNs improve VaR forecasting compared to traditional models, but SVaR forecasts are conservative.
problem Forecasting VaR and SVaR using dynamic Bayesian networks.
method DBN framework applied to S&P 500 index returns, comparing to autoregressive models and historical simulation.
result DBNs achieve comparable VaR forecasting accuracy to historical simulation models, but SVaR forecasts remain conservative.
Framework mitigates overfitting in quantitative trading strategies.
problem Overfitting during strategy transition from backtest to live trading.
method Three-stage protocol: IS, WFA, OOS; majority pass, purge gaps, cliff veto, etc.
result Demonstrates how to detect overfitting through performance decay and drawdown behavior.