A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper tackles belief-state selection in simulators with latent states.
We present an algorithm for model-based reinforcement learning that combines Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with random roll-outs and stochastic optimization for policy learning. The BNNs are trained by minimizing -divergences, allowing us to capture complicated statistical patterns in the transition dynamics, e.g.…
The decision to rollout a vehicle is critical to fleet management companies as wrong decisions can lead to additional cost of maintenance and failures during journey. With the availability of large amount of data and advancement of machine learning techniques, the rollout decisions of a supervisor can be effectively au…
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the financialization of futures markets in the early 2000s, we investigate if these extant mod…
To act and plan in complex environments, we posit that agents should have a mental simulator of the world with three characteristics: (a) it should build an abstract state representing the condition of the world; (b) it should form a belief which represents uncertainty on the world; (c) it should go beyond simple step-…
We propose a lifelong learning architecture, the Neural Computer Agent (NCA), where a Reinforcement Learning agent is paired with a predictive model of the environment learned by a Differentiable Neural Computer (DNC). The agent and DNC model are trained in conjunction iteratively. The agent improves its policy in simu…
RGRR allocates between QQQ and DIA based on relative states, improving Sharpe and CAGR.
Learning robot controllers by minimizing a black-box objective cost using Bayesian optimization (BO) can be time-consuming and challenging. It is very often the case that some roll-outs result in failure behaviors, causing premature experiment detention. In such cases, the designer is forced to decide on heuristic cost…
We study the problem of learning a good search policy for combinatorial search spaces. We propose retrospective imitation learning, which, after initial training by an expert, improves itself by learning from \textit{retrospective inspections} of its own roll-outs. That is, when the policy eventually reaches a feasible…
Paper proposes a novel method to assess treatment effect estimators using cross-validation.
A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.
Paper tackles offline RL from mixed datasets with adaptive KL regularizer.
Deep neural networks, and in particular recurrent networks, are promising candidates to control autonomous agents that interact in real-time with the physical world. However, this requires a seamless integration of temporal features into the network's architecture. For the training of and inference with recurrent neura…
Understanding search queries is critical for shopping search engines to deliver a satisfying customer experience. Popular shopping search engines receive billions of unique queries yearly, each of which can depict any of hundreds of user preferences or intents. In order to get the right results to customers it must be …
This work proposes robust reinforcement learning methods using both offline and online data.
Driver drowsiness increases crash risk, leading to substantial road trauma each year. Drowsiness detection methods have received considerable attention, but few studies have investigated the implementation of a detection approach on a mobile phone. Phone applications reduce the need for specialised hardware and hence, …
Paper uses RL to optimize ICU load during COVID-19.
Optimal sample complexity for autoregressive chain-of-thought learning proven.
CViT learns complex physical systems using vision transformer techniques.
Detecting concept drift is a well known problem that affects production systems. However, two important issues that are frequently not addressed in the literature are 1) the detection of drift when the labels are not immediately available; and 2) the automatic generation of explanations to identify possible causes for …
Generates infinite-depth hierarchical clusters from few examples.
Study generalizes Picard iteration for nonlinear PDEs, deriving bounds on error.
The protection of user privacy is an important concern in machine learning, as evidenced by the rolling out of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in the European Union (EU) in May 2018. The GDPR is designed to give users more control over their personal data, which motivates us to explore machine learning fr…
Robust RL with learned optimal adversary improves agent performance under adversarial state observations.
Novel approach to learning models based on subjective timescales for better exploration and decision-making.
Root cause analysis in a large-scale production environment is challenging due to the complexity of services running across global data centers. Due to the distributed nature of a large-scale system, the various hardware, software, and tooling logs are often maintained separately, making it difficult to review the logs…
Convolutional Neural Processes improve data efficiency in neural processes.
Improved iterative methods for risk parity portfolio weights.
We describe a novel optimization method for finite sums (such as empirical risk minimization problems) building on the recently introduced SAGA method. Our method achieves an accelerated convergence rate on strongly convex smooth problems. Our method has only one parameter (a step size), and is radically simpler than o…
A new method combines Laplace and Variational Bayes for scalable inference.
Unified framework for model explanation methods based on feature removal.
This work reviews and evaluates methods for predicting prediction intervals in regression problems.
Derives kernel PCA with Nyström method for scalability.
In this paper, the author considers the numerical computation of CVA for large systems by Mote Carlo methods. He introduces two types of stochastic mesh methods for the computations of CVA. In the first method, stochastic mesh method is used to obtain the future value of the derivative contracts. In the second method, …
New method combines spectral and sparse methods for Gaussian processes.
A comprehensive benchmark of 15 scRNA-seq imputation methods across various datasets and analyses.
New methods using natural gradient for structured optimization.
Recently, {\it stochastic momentum} methods have been widely adopted in training deep neural networks. However, their convergence analysis is still underexplored at the moment, in particular for non-convex optimization. This paper fills the gap between practice and theory by developing a basic convergence analysis of t…
We investigate methods for pricing American options under the variance gamma model. The variance gamma process is a pure jump process which is constructed by replacing the calendar time by the gamma time in a Brownian motion with drift, which makes it a time-changed Brownian motion. In general, the finite difference me…
A new method speeds up deep neural network training.
We propose a new stochastic dual coordinate ascent technique that can be applied to a wide range of regularized learning problems. Our method is based on Alternating Direction Multiplier Method (ADMM) to deal with complex regularization functions such as structured regularizations. Although the original ADMM is a batch…
NCG methods improve shape optimization efficiency.
We propose two localized Radial Basis Function (RBF) methods, the Radial Basis Function Partition of Unity method (RBF-PUM) and the Radial Basis Function generated Finite Differences method (RBF-FD), for solving financial derivative pricing problems arising from market models with multiple stochastic factors. We demons…
Proposes UTC method for stock price prediction with uncertainty quantification.
Survey of spectral, probabilistic, and deep metric learning methods.
Various approaches to gene selection for cancer classification based on microarray data can be found in the literature and they may be grouped into two categories: univariate methods and multivariate methods. Univariate methods look at each gene in the data in isolation from others. They measure the contribution of a p…
A novel weighted feature selection method using fuzzy sets improves classification accuracy and stability.
New method improves accuracy in computing implied volatility.