Neural network model improves robustness of mortgage bond yield curve estimation.
problem Overfitting and instability in traditional yield curve estimation methods for small mortgage bond markets.
method Neural network framework with a new loss function for smoothness and stability.
result Empirical results show more robust and stable yield curve estimates compared to existing methods.
This work introduces new ways to compare adversarial robustness of classifiers globally.
problem The limitations of point-wise measures in comparing adversarial robustness.
method Robustness curves and scale analysis to uncover global properties of robustness.
result Point-wise measures fail to capture important global properties of adversarial robustness.
The existence of adversarial examples has led to considerable uncertainty regarding the trust one can justifiably put in predictions produced by automated systems. This uncertainty has, in turn, lead to considerable research effort in understanding adversarial robustness. In this work, we take first steps towards separ…
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
problem Noisy and uncertain U.S. Treasury yields pose risk to forecast users.
method Formulates yield curve forecasting as a distributionally robust problem, combining factor models and machine learning.
result Robust forecast combinations improve out-of-sample performance across different maturity periods.
New knot models analyze local entanglement for robust curve analysis.
problem Lack of local structural information in classical knot theory.
method Proposed multiscale and persistent Jones polynomials.
result Models are stable to small perturbations, robust for real-world applications.
Overparameterized MLR fits hyper-curves, improving model robustness.
problem Improper predictors degrade model generalizability.
method Parameterizing with a scalar and monomial basis, fitting hyper-curves.
result Hyper-curve approach yields robust predictions for noisy data.
Paper introduces k-DTW for robust curve comparison.
problem Robust dissimilarity measure for polygonal curves.
method Introduces k-Dynamic Time Warping (k-DTW) as a novel dissimilarity measure.
result k-DTW is more robust to outliers and has stronger metric properties than DTW.
New criteria ensure uniqueness of curve signatures, robust to metric variations.
problem Ensuring uniqueness of curve signatures in differential geometry.
method Introducing new methods through differential equations and higher order derivatives.
result New criteria for curve signature uniqueness in general settings.
New method for curve comparison using iterated integrals and moving frames.
problem Comparing curves robustly to noise and transformations.
method Moving frame method paired with log-signature transform.
result Algorithmic construction of invariants for curve equivalence under rigid motions.
Paper develops methods to estimate derivative of dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
problem Estimating the derivative of the dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
method Doubly robust (DR) inference method using kernel smoothing, bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators.
result Proposes novel bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators for continuous treatments.
Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.
We provide a general framework for characterizing the trade-off between accuracy and robustness in supervised learning. We propose a method and define quantities to characterize the trade-off between accuracy and robustness for a given architecture, and provide theoretical insight into the trade-off. Specifically we in…
Optimizes bond portfolios to avoid worst-case losses.
problem Finding the worst-case value of a bond portfolio over a range of yield curves and spreads.
method Solves a convex-concave saddle point optimization problem to find the worst-case value and construct a robust portfolio.
result Constructs a bond portfolio that includes the worst-case value, ensuring robustness against market uncertainties.
Deep networks have recently been shown to be vulnerable to universal perturbations: there exist very small image-agnostic perturbations that cause most natural images to be misclassified by such classifiers. In this paper, we propose the first quantitative analysis of the robustness of classifiers to universal perturba…
Study bifurcations of curves on surfaces in Minkowski 3-space.
problem Understanding the behavior of curves on surfaces in Minkowski 3-space.
method Analyzing the degeneracy of induced pseudo metric, discriminant of principal curvatures, parabolic curve, and mean curvature vanishing points.
result Bifurcations of robust features on surfaces in Minkowski 3-space.
Model-based clustering approaches concern the paradigm of exploratory data analysis relying on the finite mixture model to automatically find a latent structure governing observed data. They are one of the most popular and successful approaches in cluster analysis. The mixture density estimation is generally performed …
CP-ROC bands improve graph classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distributional shifts in graph classification.
method Conditional Prediction ROC (CP-ROC) bands for graph classification, developed for TGNNs and adaptable to GNNs.
result Statistically guaranteed coverage for CP-ROC under local exchangeability condition, improving prediction reliability.
Proposes neuron alignment to optimize mode connectivity in neural networks.
problem Understanding and optimizing mode connectivity in deep neural networks.
method Introduces neuron alignment to approximate optimal weight permutations and improve mode connectivity.
result Neuron alignment significantly alleviates robust loss barriers and improves model robustness and accuracy.
Optimizes shapes of curves using Möbius energy gradients.
problem Finding optimal shapes of curves within isotopy classes.
method Gradient-based optimization with Sobolev inner products.
result Significantly more efficient and robust optimization methods.
Formalizes integral curves on Banach manifolds in Lean.
problem Existence and uniqueness of integral curves on Banach manifolds.
method Formalized differential equations on Banach spaces, then generalized to Banach manifolds.
result Established theorems for integral curves on Banach manifolds.
AIB method improves robustness against adversarial perturbations.
problem Optimizing the IB principle for better robustness and understanding compression effects.
method Proposes adversarial information bottleneck (AIB) method to optimize IB principle without explicit distribution assumptions.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in learning more invariant representations and mitigating adversarial perturbations.
Area under ROC curve (AUC) is a widely used performance measure for classification models. We propose two new distributionally robust AUC maximization models (DR-AUC) that rely on the Kantorovich metric and approximate the AUC with the hinge loss function. We consider the two cases with respectively fixed and variable …
Nonparametric methods are widely applicable to statistical inference problems, since they rely on a few modeling assumptions. In this context, the fresh look advocated here permeates benefits from variable selection and compressive sampling, to robustify nonparametric regression against outliers - that is, data markedl…
Enhances clustering for functional data, robust to outliers.
problem Challenges of clustering infinite-dimensional functional data and outlier sensitivity.
method Extends OCLUST algorithm to handle functional data, trimming outliers.
result Strong performance in clustering and outlier identification on simulated and real-world datasets.
Establishes necessary conditions for cylindrical curves using curvature and torsion.
problem Geometrically identifying curves on cylindrical surfaces.
method Identifying a fundamental function ψ and reducing the problem to a compatibility condition between an eighth-degree polynomial and a differential equation for ψ.
result Proves that for curves with constant curvature κ0 = 1/ρ, the torsion τ admits an explicit, exact solution.
Deep networks are well-known to be fragile to adversarial attacks. We conduct an empirical analysis of deep representations under the state-of-the-art attack method called PGD, and find that the attack causes the internal representation to shift closer to the "false" class. Motivated by this observation, we propose to …
This paper introduces a novel monotone curve estimation framework based on convex duality.
problem Estimating smooth, continuous, and monotonic curves in data.
method Convex duality and optimal transport theories.
result Established statistical guarantees for monotone curve estimates.
We show some generic (robust) properties of smooth surfaces immersed in the real 3-space (Euclidean, affine or projective), in the neighbourhood of a {\em godron} (term due to R.Thom): an isolated parabolic point at which the (unique) asymptotic direction is tangent to the parabolic curve. With the help of these proper…
Metrics on shape space are used to describe deformations that take one shape to another, and to determine a distance between them. We study a family of metrics on the space of curves, that includes several recently proposed metrics, for which the metrics are characterised by mappings into vector spaces where geodesics …
Generalizes Hasimoto transformation to arbitrary flows on space curves.
problem Modeling and analyzing wave motions on space curves.
method Develops a mapping between curve evolution and scalar equations, transforming general vector fields in the Frenet frame.
result Binormal flows are generally length preserving but bending energy is fragile.
Locates entanglement in curves using knot intensity distribution.
problem Finding robust methods for locating entanglement in embedded curves.
method Introducing knot intensity distribution as a local quantifier for entanglement contribution.
result Intensity distributions identify regions in knots accommodating topological changes.
Many problems that appear in biomedical decision making, such as diagnosing disease and predicting response to treatment, can be expressed as binary classification problems. The costs of false positives and false negatives vary across application domains and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a visu…
Defines weak normals for irregular curves in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Dealing with irregular curves in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces.
method Using sequences of inscribed polygonals and Gram-Schmidt procedure, introduces a relaxed notion of weak normals.
result Weak normals for irregular curves are the strong limit of approximating polygonals and agree with relaxed energy.
The level sets of neural networks represent fundamental properties such as decision boundaries of classifiers and are used to model non-linear manifold data such as curves and surfaces. Thus, methods for controlling the neural level sets could find many applications in machine learning. In this paper we present a simpl…
Unified approach classifies stable and minimal elastic curves.
problem Classifying stable and minimal elastic curves under various conditions.
method Unified geometric approach using a `cut-and-paste` trick.
result Complete classification of stable closed p-elasticae and stable pinned p-elasticae. Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples, which becomes one of the most important research problems in the development of deep learning. While a lot of efforts have been made in recent years, it is of great significance to perform correct and complete evaluations of the adversarial attack and defense…
A new model captures forward curve dynamics with stochastic volatility.
problem Modeling continuous-time evolution of forward curves in financial markets.
method Affine stochastic volatility model with modulated dynamics.
result Model allows for maturity-specific risk and volatility clustering.
By adopting the polynomial interpolation method, we propose an approach to hedge against the interest-rate risk of the default-free bonds by measuring the nonparallel movement of the yield-curve, such as the translation, the rotation and the twist. The empirical analysis shows that our hedging strategies are comparable…
New method uses contours of segmented images for X-ray classification.
problem Classifying X-ray images of segmented radiography.
method Develops a new approach for image analysis of multivariate planar curves, addressing alignment issues.
result Demonstrates the robustness and appeal of the proposed method through detection of cardiomegaly and numerical experiments.
We present a robust multiple manifolds structure learning (RMMSL) scheme to robustly estimate data structures under the multiple low intrinsic dimensional manifolds assumption. In the local learning stage, RMMSL efficiently estimates local tangent space by weighted low-rank matrix factorization. In the global learning …
The article presents a new non-parametric approach for forecasting mortality and fertility using Gaussian process regression.
problem Precise forecasting of demographic movements in developed countries.
method Gaussian process regression with natural cubic spline and spectral mixture covariance functions.
result The approach shows significant improvements in forecasting precision and robustness.
Confidence bands for tuning curves improve hyperparameter comparison in NLP.
problem Ambiguity in comparing hyperparameter tuning methods.
method Constructs exact, simultaneous, and distribution-free confidence bands for tuning curves.
result Confidence bands provide a robust basis for comparing methods rigorously.
Symmetric losses improve classifier robustness from corrupted labels.
problem Improving classifier performance from corrupted labels.
method Symmetric losses that satisfy a certain condition.
result Symmetric losses enhance robust classification from corrupted labels.
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correl…
Adapts IG for better feature attributions and robustness.
problem Reliability concerns in feature attributions for deep learning models.
method Adaptation of path-based feature attribution to Riemannian geometry of data manifolds.
result IG along geodesics generates more intuitive and robust explanations.
Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have been attracting increasing attention in various research domains recently. There have been some works studying optimization issues and approximation capabilities of neural ODEs, but their robustness is still yet unclear. In this work, we fill this important gap by expl…
Paper tackles catastrophic overfitting in single-step adversarial training.
problem Catastrophic overfitting leads to sudden drop in robust accuracy.
method Proposes a method to prevent overfitting by using all adversarial examples.
result Demonstrates prevention of catastrophic overfitting and improves robustness.
Proposes FunNoL for better curve classification and reconstruction in multivariate functional data.
problem Linear methods fail to capture nonlinear structures in multivariate functional data.
method Functional nonlinear learning (FunNoL) method using nonlinear mapping.
result FunNoL outperforms FPCA in curve classification and reconstruction, especially in multivariate settings.