Paper establishes robust asset pricing theorems under uncertainty.
problem Tackles asset pricing in uncertain discrete time settings.
method Introduces a new topological framework for Lp spaces and functional analysis. result Equivalence of robust no arbitrage condition and robust pricing system existence.
Characterizes Fatou closedness for robust asset pricing.
problem Robust asset pricing under model uncertainty.
method Characterization in terms of Fatou closedness for weakly closed monotone convex sets.
result Characterization of Fatou closedness for robust asset pricing.
Paper analyzes arbitrage in uncertain markets, providing quantitative asset pricing.
problem Dealing with model uncertainty in markets that allow small arbitrage.
method Quantitative analysis of arbitrage, focusing on asset price processes close to martingales.
result Quantitative version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and Super-Replication Theorem.
New methods for pricing and hedging options on multiple assets.
problem Pricing and hedging options on multiple assets given market prices for individual assets.
method Two numerical methods: discretisation and linear programming, and penalisation and deep neural networks.
result Proved convergence and compared numerical performance of methods.
Optimal early liquidation strategy reduces financial losses during crises.
problem Substantial losses from simultaneous asset liquidation at depressed prices.
method Developed a worst-case approach for optimal early liquidation, considering uncertainty of other banks' decisions.
result Proposed robust optimal strategy maximizes liquid assets' value at clearing, even with uncertainty.
Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives using market option data.
problem Creating robust price bounds for multi-asset derivatives under market-implied dependence.
method Extracting inter-asset dependence information from market option prices and applying modified martingale optimal transport.
result Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives, demonstrating relevance and tractability.
Paper reduces dimensionality for robust option pricing in 2-asset markets.
problem Robust option pricing in multi-asset markets with sub- or supermodular payoffs.
method Investigates the geometry of VMOT solutions, proving dimension reduction for 2 assets and developing a Sinkhorn algorithm.
result Dimension reduction to single-factor structure for 2-asset markets, significantly reducing computational time and improving accuracy.
Develops a robust framework for pricing and hedging in discrete-time markets.
problem Pricing and hedging of derivative securities in markets with dynamically and statically traded assets.
method Abstract Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and Pricing--Hedging Duality, minimal measurability assumptions, scenario-based approach.
result Includes model-independent results and extends classical probabilistic approaches.
This paper develops a pricing model for data assets from the buyer's perspective.
problem Insufficient research on pricing data assets from the buyer's perspective.
method Develops a pricing model based on the informational value of data assets from the buyer's perspective, using an implicit function derived from value functions in investment-consumption problems under ambiguity markets.
result Derives general expressions and explicit pricing formulas for data assets under various conditions.
We prove dual attainment for multi-asset financial derivatives pricing.
problem Model-independent pricing and hedging of complex financial derivatives.
method Established duality and attained optimizers for multimarginal, multi-asset martingale optimal transport.
result Existence of dual optimizers under mild conditions for arbitrary numbers of assets and time periods.
Improved asset pricing using uncertainty-adjusted sorting in machine learning models.
problem Ignoring asset-specific estimation uncertainty in portfolio construction.
method Uncertainty-adjusted prediction bounds for sorting assets.
result Improves portfolio performance across various ML models and equity panels.
Study robust hedging and valuation under combined uncertainty about asset price drifts and volatilities.
problem Robust hedging and valuation under uncertainty about asset price drifts and volatilities.
method Non-dominated multiple priors approach to model uncertainty, worst-case good-deal bounds, coherent risk measures, second-order backward stochastic differential equations.
result Characterization of hedging strategies and good-deal bounds via solutions to backward stochastic differential equations.
Econometric framework integrates heavy-tailed distributions with behavioral probability weighting for better asset pricing.
problem Underestimation of Value-at-Risk by traditional models in asset pricing.
method Developed an econometric framework combining heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting. result Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4% of cases, reducing underestimation of Value-at-Risk by 16.5 percentage points. In this paper we derive robust super- and subhedging dualities for contingent claims that can depend on several underlying assets. In addition to strict super- and subhedging, we also consider relaxed versions which, instead of eliminating the shortfall risk completely, aim to reduce it to an acceptable level. This yie…
Analyzes robust martingale selection problem and its relation to no-arbitrage theory.
problem Martingale selection problem in a robust setting.
method Derives conditions for solvability and connects to no-arbitrage theory.
result Obtains versions of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in various market conditions.
Introduces human capital into asset pricing model for better return prediction.
problem Improving asset pricing models to better predict stock returns.
method Used OLS and IVGMM to estimate six-factor model parameters from four sets of portfolios.
result Human capital component shares predictive power with other factors in explaining stock returns.
De Finetti's 1931 work laid the groundwork for modern arbitrage theory.
problem The lack of recognition of de Finetti's contributions to arbitrage theory.
method Examining de Finetti's 1931 work and its relation to recent developments in Robust Finance.
result De Finetti's work is considered the precursor of Asset Pricing Theory.
Bayesian investor learns unknown asset drift, trades mean-variance optimal portfolio, but policy is robust to observation model distortion.
problem Bayesian portfolio selection with observation model distortion
method Robust Bayesian portfolio selection
result Robust policy and its price are closed form, with price of robustness half the variance of the non-robust investor's loss.
Examines how central bank policies affect stock markets and asset prices.
problem Understanding the impact of monetary policy on stock markets and asset prices.
method Used Taylor rule equations to analyze data from 1990 to 2020 for US and UK, testing with various econometric methods.
result Monetary policy can explain asset price volatility and output gap better than just inflation rate.
The paper addresses pricing contingent claims by accounting for model uncertainty.
problem Pricing contingent claims under model uncertainty.
method Defines a confidence set of possible models, uses multi-stage stochastic optimization under model uncertainty, and derives distributionally robust solutions.
result Derives bid and ask prices under model ambiguity and relates them to data quality.
Develops a novel framework for pricing variance swaps in multi-asset stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing variance swaps in multi-asset stochastic volatility models.
method Determinant-based instantaneous generalized variance, Heston and BNS stochastic volatility frameworks.
result Analytical pricing expressions for multi-asset Heston and BNS formulations.
This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. The paper specifies and tests a multi-factor housing asset pricing mode…
We show how to price and replicate a variety of barrier-style claims written on the log price X and quadratic variation ⟨X⟩ of a risky asset. Our framework assumes no arbitrage, frictionless markets and zero interest rates. We model the risky asset as a strictly positive continuous semimartingale w…
The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.
problem Constructing or selecting probability measures for asset pricing.
method Historical review of various approaches including state price theory, martingale measures, and modern data-driven methods.
result Modern asset pricing involves constructing, transforming, or selecting probability measures to represent market prices.
CB-APM uses analyst consensus as a bottleneck to interpret stock returns.
problem Tackles the challenge of understanding and predicting stock returns using professional beliefs.
method Embeds analyst consensus as a structural bottleneck, treating it as a sufficient statistic for market information.
result CB-APM portfolios exhibit strong monotonic return gradients and robust across different economic conditions.
We develop a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing for discrete-time markets with proportional transaction costs and model uncertainty. A robust notion of no-arbitrage of the second kind is defined and shown to be equivalent to the existence of a collection of strictly consistent price systems.
The paper studies the robust maximization of utility of terminal wealth in the diffusion financial market model. The underlying model consists with risky tradable asset, whose price is described by diffusion process with misspecified trend and volatility coefficients, and non-tradable asset with a known parameter. The …
Study shows no sure profits via flash strategies if asset prices don't have predictable jumps.
problem Existence of sure profits via flash strategies in financial markets.
method Introduced and studied the notion of sure profit via flash strategy, proving the existence of such profits under specific conditions.
result No sure profits via flash strategies if and only if asset prices do not exhibit predictable jumps.
We price and hedge American options robustly in continuous time.
problem Pricing and hedging American options in continuous time with model uncertainty.
method Assumes continuous semimartingale asset prices and closed convex constraints on volatility. Proves robust pricing-hedging duality and identifies American options as European options on an enlarged space.
result We prove robust pricing-hedging duality and show it holds against richer models with dynamic trading of European options.
New method detects asset price bubbles in young markets.
problem Detecting asset price bubbles in young, immature markets.
method Proposed a simple but effective statistical method to capture and quantify bubbles.
result New method applicable to immature markets without sufficient data.
Two models are identified for robust cross-impact analysis.
problem Developing and validating cross-impact models that fit data and are well-behaved.
method Classified cross-impact models according to desirable properties and evaluated them on three asset classes.
result Only one model satisfies all desirable properties and is suitable for applications.
DFMM automates market making with adaptive pricing and risk management.
problem Challenges in decentralised automated market making (AMMs).
method Data aggregator, order routing, rebalancing, arbitrageurs, protective buffers, algorithmic accounting.
result DFMM optimises inventory risk and ensures market stability.
We propose a continuous time model for financial markets with proportional transactions costs and a continuum of risky assets. This is motivated by bond markets in which the continuum of assets corresponds to the continuum of possible maturities. Our framework is well adapted to the study of no-arbitrage properties and…
The paper prices and replicates various financial contracts on a risky asset with stochastic volatility and jumps.
problem Pricing and replicating financial contracts on assets with stochastic volatility and jumps.
method Develops pricing and hedging formulas for various financial contracts, independent of the volatility process dynamics.
result Pricing and hedging formulas for financial contracts are derived without dependence on the volatility process dynamics.
We propose the development of a prediction market for forecasting prices for "toxic assets" to be transferred from Irish banks to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). Such a market allows market participants to assume a stake in a security whose value is tied to a future event. We propose that securities are cr…
Adversarial deep hedging learns to hedge without specifying asset price models.
problem Lack of effective underlying asset models for deep hedging.
method Adversarial learning framework where a hedger and a generator compete to improve hedging performance.
result Adversarial deep hedging achieves competitive performance without explicit asset process modeling.
Paper explores asset pricing dynamics in Bachelier model.
problem Understanding risky asset price dynamics in Bachelier model.
method Analyzes Bachelier market model to represent risky asset price dynamics.
result Defines riskless assets within the Bachelier model.
Paper introduces prospective strict no-arbitrage for markets with transaction costs.
problem No-arbitrage condition in markets with transaction costs.
method Introduces prospective strict no-arbitrage, proves closedness of attainable portfolios.
result Prospective strict no-arbitrage implies closed attainable portfolios, equivalent to consistent price system.
We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical multifactor asset pricing model. First, we present a spectral test for market timi…
Modeling asset trading strategies with noisy information.
problem Understanding heterogeneous trading strategies in markets with information friction.
method Developed a behavioral asset pricing model using a thin set and extended method of moments.
result The model accurately predicts return time series moments of real data.
Option contracts are a type of financial derivative that allow investors to hedge risk and speculate on the variation of an asset's future market price. In short, an option has a particular payout that is based on the market price for an asset on a given date in the future. In 1973, Black and Scholes proposed a valuati…
Improved probabilistic forecasts using behavioral transformations.
problem Improving accuracy and consistency of probabilistic asset price forecasts.
method Behavioral transformation of fundamental expectations to disentangle sentiment-induced biases.
result Substantial forecast gains across various models and risk-preferences.
We provide a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem for a model independent discrete time financial market with proportional transaction costs. We consider a probability-free version of the Robust No Arbitrage condition introduced in Schachermayer ['04] and show that this is equivalent to the e…
Study finds similar price changes across various assets.
problem Understanding changes in different asset prices over time.
method Used traditional and spectral methods to analyze asset prices.
result Discoveries of universal phenomena across asset classes.
Extends martingale transport for robust finance problems.
problem Addressing specific robust finance problems not covered by standard martingale transport.
method Introduces an additional parameter to the weak martingale optimal transport problem and proves stability.
result Stability of the extended problem with respect to risk-neutral marginal distributions.
We investigate pricing-hedging duality for American options in discrete time financial models where some assets are traded dynamically and others, e.g. a family of European options, only statically. In the first part of the paper we consider an abstract setting, which includes the classical case with a fixed reference …
Decomposes portfolio returns into drift and asset price distribution changes.
problem Understanding efficient markets through portfolio returns and asset price distributions.
method Continuous semimartingale price representations and accounting identity.
result Existence of an asset pricing factor emerges from an accounting identity across various economic and financial environments.
Paper presents new expansions for option pricing with cash dividends.
problem No exact formula for European options with cash dividends.
method Uses Etore and Gobet's technique for piecewise lognormal process with jumps.
result Provides more robust first, second, and third-order expansions.