A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper studies risk-based prices in financial markets under volatility uncertainty.
Optimizes insurance pricing by accounting for policyholders' price sensitivity.
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
In this paper we derive robust super- and subhedging dualities for contingent claims that can depend on several underlying assets. In addition to strict super- and subhedging, we also consider relaxed versions which, instead of eliminating the shortfall risk completely, aim to reduce it to an acceptable level. This yie…
Risk-based active learning improves SHM decision-making.
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a quantile spectral beta representation of risk based on the decomposition of cova…
The paper addresses sampling bias in risk-based active learning.
We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric approach that allows us to get rid of any assumption on the distribution of returns.…
Discriminative classifiers improve decision-making in SHM systems.
Paper solves bond option pricing with credit risk using Black-Scholes equations.
New method uses non-translation invariant risk measures for fair financial derivative pricing.
We advocate the use of Agnostic Allocation for the construction of long-only portfolios of stocks. We show that Agnostic Allocation Portfolios (AAPs) are a special member of a family of risk-based portfolios that are able to mitigate certain extreme features (excess concentration, high turnover, strong exposure to low-…
Proposes a method to quantify uncertainty in DNN models for discrete inputs.
In this paper, we consider a risk-based optimal investment problem of an insurer in a regime-switching jump diffusion model with noisy memory. Using the model uncertainty modeling, we formulate the investment problem as a zero-sum, stochastic differential delay game between the insurer and the market, with a convex ris…
Risk-only investment strategies have been growing in popularity as traditional in- vestment strategies have fallen short of return targets over the last decade. However, risk-based investors should be aware of four things. First, theoretical considerations and empirical studies show that apparently dictinct risk-based …
Proposes a new metric for financial risk based on volatility's local deviations.
Two new approaches improve decision-making in asset monitoring systems.
Study finds stocks with higher cyber risk scores outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
Optimizes cryptocurrency exchanges' risk management by reducing positions based on leverage.
Based on a point of view that solvency and security are first, this paper considers regular-singular stochastic optimal control problem of a large insurance company facing positive transaction cost asked by reinsurer under solvency constraint. The company controls proportional reinsurance and dividend pay-out policy to…
Framework assesses treatment effects by risk groups in observational studies.
New study finds targeting based on treatment effects outperforms risk-based targeting in social interventions.
We propose a route for the evaluation of risk based on a transformation of the covariance matrix. The approach uses a `potential' or `objective' function. This allows us to rescale data from different assets (or sources) such that each data set then has similar statistical properties in terms of their probability distr…
The insurance industry uses predictions based on customer characteristics, but this can lead to discrimination. We propose using Wasserstein barycenters to mitigate biases.
Inspired by recent ideas on how the analysis of complex financial risks can benefit from analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk---a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of net…
GAICF proposes a framework for governing generative AI in banking.
GAICF proposes a framework for managing generative AI risks in banking.
cCorrGAN approximates conditional correlation matrices using GANs.
This paper considers optimal control problem of a large insurance company under a fixed insolvency probability. The company controls proportional reinsurance rate, dividend pay-outs and investing process to maximize the expected present value of the dividend pay-outs until the time of bankruptcy. This paper aims at des…
Study uses spectral risk for learning with heavy-tailed data.
Motivated by the unceasing interest in hidden Markov models (HMMs), this paper re-examines hidden path inference in these models, using primarily a risk-based framework. While the most common maximum a posteriori (MAP), or Viterbi, path estimator and the minimum error, or Posterior Decoder (PD), have long been around, …
New risk class defined based on loss location and deviation.
Dynamic reinsurance aims to minimize surplus risk using martingale transport.
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating transition matrices to the macroeconomic variables. Our method can overcome the shortcomi…
Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk level. Account behaviour is modelled parametrically and we then implement the behav…
Paper studies convex risk measures linked to optimization.
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of discipli…
AI systems need reliable testing to ensure safety and trustworthiness.
Dynamic model considers private asset markets' complexities.
Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirica…
We address the problem of maintaining high voltage power transmission networks in security at all time, namely anticipating exceeding of thermal limit for eventual single line disconnection (whatever its cause may be) by running slow, but accurate, physical grid simulators. New conceptual frameworks are calling for a p…
Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.
Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.
We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set of training samples observed so far. For non-i.i.d. data, the training set contai…
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was …
In this article we deal with the problem of portfolio allocation by enhancing network theory tools. We use the dependence structure of the correlations network in constructing some well-known risk-based models in which the estimation of correlation matrix is a building block in the portfolio optimization. We formulate …
This study assesses risk concentration in MDB portfolios using Monte Carlo simulations.