We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed between choices of risk function (e.g. VaR vs CVaR); choice of return distribution (p…
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48 results for “risk vs return”
Investigates quantum vs classical portfolio optimization of 60 stocks.
problem Optimizing risk vs return portfolios of 60 stocks using quantum and classical methods.
method Classical and quantum annealing approaches applied to historical data.
result Quantum and classical methods yield similar optimal portfolios.
Method for factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
problem Factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
method Pseudo maximum likelihood method and asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test.
result Systematic risk explains a large part of cross-sectional total variance in bear markets but is not spanned by observed factors.
Simple model uses time series momentum to outperform benchmarks in equity and bond markets.
problem Finding systematic excess returns in various markets.
method Time series momentum applied to multiple investable indices without complex parameter estimation.
result Significant outperformance in equity and bond markets, nearly doubling returns.
Myopic optimization outperforms reinforcement learning in portfolio management, leading to lower returns and higher risks.
problem Reinforcement learning strategies in portfolio management yield lower or negative returns and higher risks compared to myopic optimization.
method Modeling execution/liquidation frictions with mark-to-market accounting, using Malliavin calculus to derive policy gradients and risk shadow price, and quantifying phantom profit.
result Myopic optimization outperforms reinforcement learning in portfolio management, leading to better returns and lower risks.
Efficient Portfoliosq-fin.PM
A new perspective on portfolio selection using realized returns.
problem Choosing between two investments with the same expected return.
method Modeling realized returns as random variables and applying the CAPM formula.
result The CAPM formula applies to realized returns, not just their expectations.
Peer-reviewed research and mined data predict stock returns similarly.
problem Predicting stock returns using research quality.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 29,000 accounting ratios with t-statistics > 2.0.
result Post-sample performance is largely independent of whether the predictor is peer-reviewed or mined.
We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.
problem Understanding how factors decay over time and their impact on performance.
method Derived a hyperbolic decay model for factors, tested against linear and exponential alternatives.
result Momentum exhibits hyperbolic decay, outperforming linear and exponential models.
Cryptocurrency markets show similar returns but different volatility responses to infrastructure and regulatory shocks.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency markets differentiate between infrastructure and regulatory shocks.
method Event-level block bootstrap inference on 31 cryptocurrency events across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano (2019-2025).
result No statistically significant difference in cumulative abnormal returns between infrastructure failures and regulatory enforcement.
Study compares short vs long strategies for equity factors, finds short strategy better.
problem Determining the best market-neutral implementation of equity factors.
method Revisited the relative predictability of short and long legs, diversification, and costs.
result Long-Short implementation yields superior risk-adjusted returns compared to Hedged Long-Only.
First, classes of Markov processes that scale exactly with a Hurst exponent H are derived in closed form. A special case of one class is the Tsallis density, advertised elsewhere as nonlinear diffusion or diffusion with nonlinear feedback. But the Tsallis model is only one of a very large class of linear diffusion with…
Improved stock selection through predictive fundamentals and uncertainty estimates.
problem Selecting stocks based on future financial data to outperform traditional factor models.
method Train deep nets to forecast future fundamentals, incorporate uncertainty estimates, and adjust portfolios to manage risk.
result Simulated annualized return of 17.7% and Sharpe ratio of 0.84 for uncertainty-aware model, significantly higher than 14.0% and 0.52 for standard factor models.
Introduces an asymmetric model for measuring market risk.
problem Existing models are symmetric and do not account for asymmetric risk.
method Develops an asymmetric capital asset pricing model that considers position-dependent market risk.
result Long positions in Apple stock have lower volatility than the market, contrary to the standard model.
This paper compares token and equity financing for startups.
problem Understanding differences in return rates between token and equity financing.
method Developed a three-period model to analyze liquidity and return differences.
result Entrepreneurs can achieve higher payoffs by issuing tokens, especially for risk-averse investors with liquidity needs.
Proposes QGC to distinguish between lower and upper tail connectivity in financial networks.
problem Identifying systemically important firms using financial data.
method Quantile Granger Causality (QGC) using Lasso penalized quantile regressions.
result QGC networks detect systemic risk more accurately than mean-based networks.
Using daily returns of the S&P 500 stocks from 2001 to 2011, we perform a backtesting study of the portfolio optimization strategy based on the extreme risk index (ERI). This method uses multivariate extreme value theory to minimize the probability of large portfolio losses. With more than 400 stocks to choose from, ou…
Quantum self-attention boosts automated market maker performance in crypto trading.
problem Improving automated market maker rebalancing in crypto trading.
method Quantum Adaptive Self-Attention (QASA) using variational quantum circuits and softmax attention.
result QASA-Sequence variant achieves best single-model risk-adjusted performance in crypto trading.
Paper tackles P vs NP problem in portfolio optimization with cardinality constraints and Black-Scholes derivatives.
problem Operationalizing the P vs NP problem in cardinality-constrained portfolio selection.
method Mixed-integer quadratic program with genetic algorithms, Monte Carlo sampling, and greedy screening.
result Cardinality constraint reshapes efficient frontier, highlighting trade-offs between stability and computational cost.
Geometric observables detect financial regime shifts with high accuracy.
problem Detecting regime shifts in financial markets.
method Extracted four geometric observables from equity-index returns and evaluated them against various baseline methods.
result The Berry Phase Rate achieves an unbiased out-of-sample median Cohen's d of 0.72, significantly reducing false alarms.
Dynamic Network Riskq-fin.GN
The paper finds stocks with higher dynamic network risk have lower returns.
problem Understanding and pricing short-term and long-term dynamic network risk in stock returns.
method Examined the relationship between stock sensitivities to dynamic network risk and expected returns, using economic theory and empirical analysis.
result A one-standard deviation increase in long-term network risk loadings associates with a 7.66% drop in annualized expected returns.
Tsallis Relative entropy from asymmetric distributions as a risk measure for financial portfoliosq-fin.ST
New method uses asymmetric Tsallis relative entropy for better risk assessment in financial portfolios.
problem Improving risk assessment for financial portfolios using asymmetric data.
method Generalized Tsallis relative entropy (ATRE) for asymmetric distributions of returns.
result ATRE shows better risk-return profiles, especially during market crashes.
A new model decomposes equity returns and volatilities into memory components.
problem Understanding long-term equity dynamics and volatility patterns.
method Proposes a multivariate generalization of the variance ratio to decompose long-horizon equity dynamics.
result Identifies a five-factor model capturing persistent, antipersistent, and multi-scale memory in returns and volatility.
The paper analyzes elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
problem Elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
method Dual representation results for convex and geometrically convex return risk measures, axiomatic characterizations of Orlicz premia, and construction of strictly consistent scoring functions.
result Orlicz premia are the only elicitable return risk measures under different sets of conditions.
The paper links labor income risk to stock returns using industry portfolio returns.
problem Understanding the impact of sectoral shifts on stock returns.
method Using cross-industry dispersion (CID) as a proxy for unemployment risk, the paper examines the relationship between stock returns and the sensitivity of returns to CID innovations.
result Stocks with high sensitivity to CID have lower expected returns, suggesting they are more exposed to sectoral shifts and unemployment risk.
Quantum computer helps optimize stock portfolios.
problem Finding the best mix of stocks for optimal risk and return.
method Classical and quantum approaches to portfolio optimization.
result Quantum computer improves portfolio selection.
Study finds high cyber risk stocks generate significant excess returns.
problem Understanding and quantifying cyber risk's impact on stock returns.
method Machine learning algorithm measuring cyber risk proximity to a corpus.
result High cyber risk stocks generate an excess return of 18.72% p.a.
Study analyzes smart contract adoption under bounded risk, showing stable adoption but fragile financial outcomes.
problem Understanding smart contract adoption in derivative markets under risk constraints.
method Structural theory linked with simulation and real-world validation.
result Adoption intensity is stable but profitability and service outcomes are sensitive to volatility.
This paper examines the possibility of using derivative-implied risk premia to explain stock returns. The rapid development of derivative markets has led to the possibility of trading various kinds of risks, such as credit and interest rate risk, separately from each other. This paper uses credit default swaps and equi…
MILLION: A General Multi-Objective Framework with Controllable Risk for Portfolio Managementq-fin.PM
MILLION framework optimizes portfolio risk and return efficiently.
problem Optimizing risk and return in AI for FinTech portfolio management.
method Two phases: return maximization with auxiliary objectives and risk control with portfolio interpolation and improvement.
result Framework achieves fine-grained risk control and improved return rates.
Market makers face a trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns, requiring contrarian strategies.
problem Navigating the trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns in market making.
method Analysis of live trading data from Binance Bitcoin perpetual.
result A negative correlation between maker fill likelihood and post-fill returns, necessitating contrarian strategies.
Multi-asset return risk measuresq-fin.MF
Extends return risk measures to multiple assets, proving properties and comparing different risk models.
problem Evaluating risk in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Develops multi-asset return risk measures (MARRMs), analyzes their properties, and compares them with other risk models.
result Proves that a positively homogeneous MARRM is quasi-convex if and only if it is convex, and provides conditions to avoid inconsistent risk evaluations.
The CAPM's market returns are endogenously determined, affecting all assets' expected returns.
problem The standard CAPM's market return assumption is not endogenously consistent.
method Demonstrates the impact of endogenously determined market returns on asset returns and the range of feasible market returns.
result Expected returns are influenced by all assets' risks, and market returns are limited by asset distribution.
Earlier studies have shown that stock market distributions can be well described by distributions derived from Tsallis entropy, which is a generalization of Shannon entropy to non-extensive systems. In this paper, Tsallis relative entropy (TRE), which is the generalization of Kullback-Leibler relative entropy (KLRE) to…
Study tests if equity factors explain Bitcoin's risk and returns.
problem Explaining Bitcoin's risk and return with equity factors.
method Applied statistical methods to test Fama-French factors on Bitcoin's excess returns.
result Fama-French factors have explanatory power on Bitcoin's risk and returns.
Based on a faithful representation of the heavy tail multivariate distribution of asset returns introduced previously (Sornette et al., 1998, 1999) that we extend to the case of asymmetric return distributions, we generalize the return-risk efficient frontier concept to incorporate the dimensions of large risks embedde…
Study optimal portfolio choice with risk control for log-returns.
problem Optimal portfolio choice with risk management in continuous-time markets.
method Characterized optimal terminal wealth using concave envelope, derived analytical expressions for optimal wealth and policy, found efficient frontier.
result Efficient frontier is concave curve connecting minimum-risk to growth-optimal portfolios, not a vertical line.
News explains most overnight stock market gains.
problem Understanding why overnight stock market gains are common.
method Supervised topic analysis of 2.4 million news articles.
result Time variation in news topics and their responses explain overnight returns.
CV outperforms mean-variance for stock returns, minimizing risk and maximizing growth.
problem Traditional risk assessment methods underperform in stock market analysis.
method Derived new CV equation and used it to analyze stock performance.
result Stocks with low but positive CV grow exponentially, outperforming high-risk stocks.
We compare the risk of ridge regression to a simple variant of ordinary least squares, in which one simply projects the data onto a finite dimensional subspace (as specified by a Principal Component Analysis) and then performs an ordinary (un-regularized) least squares regression in this subspace. This note shows that …
Geometrically convex return risk measures on AM-algebras
problem Quantifying risk in time series analysis
method Extending return risk measures to general ordered vector spaces
result Establishing results on finiteness, continuity, separability, and dual and aggregation-based representations
New algorithm optimizes adaptive return level for Markowitz portfolios.
problem Finding an optimal return level for Markowitz portfolios when investor's risk appetite is unknown.
method Krasnoselskii-Mann Proximity Algorithm based on proximity operator and momentum technique.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods in portfolio optimization.
Model predicts risk-adjusted returns across various financial markets.
problem Stationary models fail in predicting risk-adjusted returns due to market regime changes.
method Asset-independent regime-switching model using hidden Markov models.
result Accurately detects bull, bear, and high volatility periods for improved risk-adjusted returns.
Study develops models to predict severe COVID-19 progression.
problem Identifying high-risk individuals for severe COVID-19.
method Developed survival models using EHR data, learning clinical concepts to improve accuracy.
result Learned clinical concepts improve model performance, boosting C-index to 0.858.
Deep neural networks improve portfolio construction by jointly modeling returns and risks.
problem Traditional portfolio construction methods fail under time-varying market conditions.
method Jointly modeling dynamic expected returns and risk structures using deep neural networks.
result Deep forecasting model achieves competitive predictive accuracy and economically meaningful directional accuracy.
Leptokurtic Portfolio Theoryphysics.soc-ph
The question of optimal portfolio is addressed. The conventional Markowitz portfolio optimisation is discussed and the shortcomings due to non-Gaussian security returns are outlined. A method is proposed to minimise the likelihood of extreme non-Gaussian drawdowns of the portfolio value. The theory is called Leptokurti…
Neural networks improve VaR estimation accuracy and robustness.
problem Estimating Value at Risk (VaR) in financial markets.
method Generative regime switching framework with Monte-Carlo simulations, neural networks initialized via best model, balanced incentive function, reduced training data.
result Neural networks outperform traditional methods in VaR estimation, especially with less data.
Leveraged ETF Investingq-fin.ST
Leveraged ETFs can boost returns but increase risk.
problem Risk and return trade-off in leveraged ETF investing.
method Bootstrapped Monte-Carlo simulations of mixed stock and bond portfolios.
result Leverage can amplify returns without significantly increasing risk for long-term investors.
Study uses RL to optimize risky vs. risk-free asset allocation.
problem Optimal asset allocation in volatile financial markets.
method Formulated as MDP, uses DDPG with TiDE for dynamic policy learning.
result DDPG-TiDE outperforms Q-learning and buy-and-hold strategies.