A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Models analyze strategic risk-taking in continuous action games.
We generalize the momentum indicator idea taking into account the volume of transactions as a multiplicative factor. We compare returns obtained following strategies based on the classical or the generalized technical analysis, taking into account a sort of risk investor criterion.
Dynamic risk constraints help limit risky behavior in financial portfolios.
We propose a mathematical model of momentum risk-taking, which is essentially real-time risk management focused on short-term volatility of stock markets. Its implementation, our fully automated momentum equity trading system presented systematically, proved to be successful in extensive historical and real-time experi…
Study optimal reward schemes for inducing desired player performance in risky contests.
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
The aim of this paper is to introduce a risk measure that extends the Gini-type measures of risk and variability, the Extended Gini Shortfall, by taking risk aversion into consideration. Our risk measure is coherent and catches variability, an important concept for risk management. The analysis is made under the Choque…
Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail Expectation describes the expected amount of risk that can be experienced given …
We discuss two distinct approaches, for distorting risk measures of sums of dependent random variables, which preserve the property of coherence. The first, based on distorted expectations, operates on the survival function of the sum. The second, simultaneously applies the distortion on the survival function of the su…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are popular risk measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of Neyman-Pearson type binary solution. We add a constraint on expected return to investigate the Mean-CVaR portfolio sele…
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during learning. In this framework, the preference for risk can be tuned by variation of the p…
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands. We first study this problem under expected utility preferences with an objectivel…
Spectral risk measures (SRMs) are risk measures that take account of user riskaversion, but to date there has been little guidance on the choice of utility function underlying them. This paper addresses this issue by examining alternative approaches based on exponential and power utility functions. A number of problems…
This study analyzes the alignment between charter value and supervision in banks.
We propose a robust risk measurement approach that minimizes the expectation of overestimation plus underestimation costs. We consider uncertainty by taking the supremum over a collection of probability measures, relating our approach to dual sets in the representation of coherent risk measures. We provide results that…
We propose a generalization of the classical notion of the that takes into account not only the probability of the losses, but the balance between such probability and the amount of the loss. This is obtained by defining a new class of law invariant risk measures based on an appropriate family of acceptance set…
Modelling of contagion in interbank networks is discussed. A model taking into account bow-tie structure and dissasortativity of interbank networks is developed. The model is shown to provide a good quantitative description of the Russian interbank market. Detailed arguments favoring the non-percolative nature of conta…
We describe a general framework for measuring risks, where the risk measure takes values in an abstract cone. It is shown that this approach naturally includes the classical risk measures and set-valued risk measures and yields a natural definition of vector-valued risk measures. Several main constructions of risk meas…
This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given family. For the risk estimation problem, we compute the bias (which can also be …
The paper optimizes risk-sharing in decentralized networks.
In this paper we describe a novel implementation of adaboost for prediction of survival function. We take different variations of the algorithm and compare the algorithms based on system run time and root mean square error. Our construction includes right censoring data and competing risk data too. We take different da…
Analyzes how rough volatility affects stock pricing and risk premium.
Paper introduces new risk measures for default risk and model uncertainty.
Different models of capital exchange among economic agents have been proposed recently trying to explain the emergence of Pareto's wealth power law distribution. One important factor to be considered is the existence of risk aversion. In this paper we study a model where agents posses different levels of risk aversion,…
In this text, we establish the risk model based on AR(1) series and propose the basic model which has a dependent structure under intensity of claim number. Considering some properties of the risk model, we take advantage of newton iteration method to figure out the adjustment coefficient and estimate the exponential u…
The article develops a model for skewness risk in risk parity portfolios.
The aims of this study are twofold. First, we consider an optimal risk allocation problem with non-convex preferences. By establishing an infimal representation for distortion risk measures, we give some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal and asymptotic optimal allocations. We will show th…
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal reinsurance design, when the risk is measured by a distortion risk measure and the premium is given by a distortion risk premium. First, we show how the optimal reinsurance design for the ceding company, the reinsurance company and the social planner can be formulated i…
The aim of this paper is to introduce a method for computing the allocated Solvency II Capital Requirement (SCR) of each Risk which the company is exposed to, taking in account for the diversification effect among different risks. The method suggested is based on the Euler principle. We show that it has very suitable p…
The paper analyzes the risk of investing in a basket of 27 cryptocurrencies using statistical distributions.
We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably p…
New versions of the set-valued average value at risk for multivariate risks are introduced by generalizing the well-known certainty equivalent representation to the set-valued case. The first "regulator" version is independent from any market model whereas the second version, called the market extension, takes trading …
Develops a new method for robust risk measurement by averaging nearby payoffs.
In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with empirical data. At the same time, it is desirable to still preserve some analytical tra…
Risk assessment is a major challenge for supply chain managers, as it potentially affects business factors such as service costs, supplier competition and customer expectations. The increasing interconnectivity between organisations has put into focus methods for supply chain cyber risk management. We introduce a gener…
We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal (ISDA) documentation suggests in many points that a substitution closeout should be u…
This research develops a dynamic risk management system for industrial companies.
Optimizes information acquisition to reduce estimation risk and maximize utility.
Multi-period measures of risk account for the path that the value of an investment portfolio takes. In the context of probabilistic risk measures, the focus has traditionally been on the magnitude of investment loss and not on the dimension associated with the passage of time. In this paper, the concept of temporal pat…
A blockchain replaces central counterparties with time-consuming consensus protocols to record the transfer of ownership. This settlement latency slows cross-exchange trading, exposing arbitrageurs to price risk. Off-chain settlement, instead, exposes arbitrageurs to costly default risk. We show with Bitcoin network an…
In Electricity markets, illiquidity, transaction costs and market price characteristics prevent managers to replicate exactly contracts. A residual risk is always present and the hedging strategy depends on a risk criterion chosen. We present an algorithm to hedge a position for a mean variance criterion taking into ac…
The paper extends the market price of risk for electricity swap contracts, incorporating jump risk.
Study shows marketable order routing to wholesalers benefits all traders, leading to lower market depth and price volatility.
Paper introduces MSPD for multivariate risk processes with dependencies.
Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic model of interbank contagion explicitly taking into account the empirical bow-t…
Unified formula for optimal portfolio under piecewise hyperbolic risk aversion.
Paper argues context equals environment, improving AI generalization.
We prove that Pareto theory of circulation of elites results from our wealth evolution model, Kelly criterion for optimal betting and Keynes' observation of "animal spirits" that drive the economy and cause that human financial decisions are prone to excess risk-taking.