Study calculates Bayes risk for semi-supervised learning with uncertain labels.
problem Uncertain labeling in semi-supervised classification.
method Gaussian mixture model, Bayes risk computation, comparison with algorithm performance.
result New insights into semi-supervised learning algorithm performance.
The study calculates the risk of semi-supervised multitask learning on Gaussian mixtures.
problem Understanding the risk in semi-supervised multitask learning on Gaussian mixtures.
method Statistical physics methods applied to Gaussian mixture models.
result The study evaluates the performance gain of learning tasks together versus separately.
This study analyzes the alignment between charter value and supervision in banks.
problem The alignment between charter value and supervision in banks is complex and varies by risk type.
method Classification and regression tree analysis using the CAMELS rating system.
result Supervision and charter value are aligned for some types of risk.
The paper improves semi-supervised learning using f-divergences and α-Rényi divergences.
problem Improving semi-supervised learning with noisy pseudo-labels.
method Inspired by f-divergences and α-Rényi divergences, the paper develops new empirical risk functions and regularization techniques. result The new methods show better performance than traditional self-training methods, especially in noisy pseudo-label scenarios.
Develops a SAS approach for high-dimensional risk prediction using unlabeled data.
problem Challenges in risk modeling with EHR data due to lack of direct disease outcomes and high dimensionality.
method Surrogate Assisted Semi-supervised Learning (SAS) approach leveraging unlabeled and labeled data.
result Valid inference for predicted risk even when underlying model is dense and mis-specified.
We train and validate a semi-supervised, multi-task LSTM on 57,675 person-weeks of data from off-the-shelf wearable heart rate sensors, showing high accuracy at detecting multiple medical conditions, including diabetes (0.8451), high cholesterol (0.7441), high blood pressure (0.8086), and sleep apnea (0.8298). We compa…
Unified framework for N-tuples learning improves weakly supervised tasks.
problem Reducing annotation burden in supervised learning.
method Empirical risk minimization framework integrating pointwise unlabeled data.
result Framework improves generalization across various N-tuples learning tasks.
Develops uniform convergence guarantees for a broad class of risk functionals in supervised learning.
problem Bounding generalization gaps for various risk functionals beyond the expectation.
method Establishes uniform convergence for Hölder risk functionals, providing guarantees for empirical risk minimization.
result First uniform convergence results for estimating the CDF of loss distributions, applicable to various risk functionals.
The minimum description length (MDL) principle in supervised learning is studied. One of the most important theories for the MDL principle is Barron and Cover's theory (BC theory), which gives a mathematical justification of the MDL principle. The original BC theory, however, can be applied to supervised learning only …
Researchers propose a new SSL risk decomposition method to evaluate and improve self-supervised learning models.
problem Self-supervised learning evaluation is limited to a single metric, providing little insight into model performance and improvement.
method Proposes an SSL risk decomposition that considers four error components: approximation, representation usability, probe generalization, and encoder generalization.
result Analysis of 169 SSL vision models reveals the main sources of error and provides insights for improving SSL models in specific settings.
Paper tackles weakly supervised learning from similarity-confidence data.
problem Learning binary classifier from unlabeled data pairs with confidence of similarity.
method Proposes an unbiased estimator of classification risk from Sconf data and risk correction scheme.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of proposed methods through experiments.
Improves risk control in predictions using semi-supervised calibration.
problem Noisy hyper-parameter tuning from limited labeled data.
method Semi-supervised calibration using unlabeled data to tune hyper-parameters rigorously.
result Improves prediction accuracy without sacrificing statistical validity.
The Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) provides the theoretical guarantees for supervised machine learning based on the Empirical Risk Minimization Principle (ERMP). Such principle defines an upper bound to ensure the uniform convergence of the empirical risk Remp(f), i.e., the error measured on a given data sample, to …
Enhanced financial forecasting using supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple labeling.
problem Improving investment strategy performance on noisy financial data.
method Supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling.
result Supervised autoencoders with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size significantly boost strategy effectiveness.
A system for supervising decentralized finance risks using LLMs and structured evidence.
problem Supervising decentralized finance risks
method Forecast-grounded agentic supervision system
result Developed a system that scores tickets against a regulator-aligned ground truth and false-intervention rate.
DeXposure-Claw supervises decentralized finance risks by grounding LLM decisions in evidence.
problem Weak evidence leads to over-interventions by general-purpose LLM agents in decentralized finance.
method DeXposure-Claw uses a graph time-series foundation model to forecast exposure networks, turning forecasts into alerts and constraining escalation with data-health gates.
result DeXposure-Claw reduces false alarms and improves regulator alignment in decentralized finance risk supervision.
Paper explores VRM for PSMLC with partially labeled medical images.
problem Improving PSMLC with limited labeled data.
method Applies VRM to PSMLC for better model performance.
result VRM improves PSMLC performance with partial labels.
This paper improves learning complex functions with CoT supervision, reducing sample complexity.
problem Learning complex functions with multi-step reasoning.
method Develops a statistical theory linking CoT risk and end-to-end risk, using CoT information measure.
result CoT supervision can achieve significantly faster learning rates compared to standard E2E supervision.
New method learns from noisy data without knowing noise level.
problem Learning from noisy data without knowing noise level.
method Uses Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE) without noise level knowledge.
result Outperforms other self-supervised methods on imaging problems.
Unified approach for multicalibration in weakly supervised learning.
problem Existing multicalibration methods require clean input-label pairs, which are unavailable in weakly supervised learning.
method Developed estimators and post-hoc correction methods for multicalibration under weak supervision.
result Unified framework for estimating and correcting multicalibration under weak supervision with finite-sample guarantees.
Semi-supervised learning improves prediction using unlabeled data.
problem Improving prediction performance using unlabeled data.
method General methodology for semi-supervised Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) focusing on generalized linear regression.
result Adaptive SSL can achieve substantial improvement over supervised and null models in various settings.
GAN improves financial risk prediction by generating synthetic minority events.
problem Data imbalance in financial market supervision.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) to generate synthetic data.
result GAN-generated synthetic data significantly improves prediction accuracy.
Paper develops MRCs for supervised classification using generalized maximum entropy.
problem Developing robust classifiers for decision problems.
method Generalized maximum entropy principle applied to minimax risk classifiers.
result Learning techniques for determining MRCs with performance guarantees.
The paper establishes risk bounds for PU learning with label noise.
problem Finding a classifier in PU learning with label noise.
method Establishes risk bounds under the assumption of label selection randomness.
result Proves that the upper bound on minimax risk is almost optimal.
This paper critiques the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) for operational risk and recommends maintaining Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA).
problem Weaknesses and failures of the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) in operational risk.
method Critical review and analysis of SMA and AMA approaches.
result SMA is unstable, insensitive to risk, and implicitly related to systemic risk in the banking sector.
New method shows supervised learning can mimic unsupervised learning effectively.
problem The fundamental difference between supervised and unsupervised learning.
method A two-stage procedure where unsupervised model selection is followed by adding outputs without changing parameters.
result Asymptotic out-of-sample risk bounds for various models trained without access to labels.
Paper analyzes self-supervised image denoising with denatured data.
problem Understanding the performance of self-supervised image denoising with denatured data.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on a denoising algorithm.
result Theoretical analysis shows the algorithm finds desired solutions to the optimization problem.
The recently proposed unlabeled-unlabeled (UU) classification method allows us to train a binary classifier only from two unlabeled datasets with different class priors. Since this method is based on the empirical risk minimization, it works as if it is a supervised classification method, compatible with any model and …
The paper addresses sampling bias in risk-based active learning.
problem Sampling bias in active learning leads to poor decision-making performance.
method The paper uses a semi-supervised Gaussian mixture model with an EM algorithm to counteract sampling bias.
result The EM algorithm effectively incorporates pseudo-labels for unlabelled data, reducing sampling bias.
GNNs improve semi-supervised node regression, but why? We explain.
problem Understanding when and why GNNs succeed in semi-supervised node regression.
method Aggregate-and-readout model encompassing message passing architectures, least-squares estimation over GNNs with linear graph convolutions and a deep ReLU readout.
result Sharp non-asymptotic risk bound separating approximation, stochastic, and optimization errors.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have shown promising results on a wide variety of complex tasks. Recent experiments show adversarial training provides useful gradients to the generator that helps attain better performance. In this paper, we intend to theoretically analyze whether supervised learning with adversar…
Develops bounds for deep learning risk via Hilbert coresets.
problem Risk estimation for complex deep learning models.
method Hilbert coreset approach for transductive risk bounds.
result Effective and meaningful bounds for deep neural networks.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
Enhanced financial forecasting with supervised autoencoders for S&P 500 and cryptocurrencies.
problem Improving investment strategy performance in financial markets.
method Supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling.
result Supervised autoencoders with balanced parameters significantly boost strategy effectiveness.
Different types of training data have led to numerous schemes for supervised classification. Current learning techniques are tailored to one specific scheme and cannot handle general ensembles of training data. This paper presents a unifying framework for supervised classification with general ensembles of training dat…
UREs lead to overfitting in complex models, especially in complementary label learning.
problem Overfitting in weakly supervised learning with complementary labels.
method Proposed a surrogate complementary loss (SCL) framework to reduce gradient variance.
result SCL mitigates overfitting and improves URE-based methods.
ICU mortality risk prediction is a tough yet important task. On one hand, due to the complex temporal data collected, it is difficult to identify the effective features and interpret them easily; on the other hand, good prediction can help clinicians take timely actions to prevent the mortality. These correspond to the…
Overview of SML techniques with banking applications.
problem Credit risk modeling in banking.
method Tree-based ensemble algorithms, Feedforward NNs, hyper-parameter optimization, machine learning interpretability.
result Comparison of ML algorithm features and their application in banking.
Paper analyzes factors affecting COVID-19 risk in US counties.
problem Identifying factors influencing COVID-19 risk in US counties.
method Combines unsupervised (K-means clustering) and supervised learning models.
result Mean temperature, poverty, obesity, and other factors are most significant.
Empirical risk minimization (ERM), with proper loss function and regularization, is the common practice of supervised classification. In this paper, we study training arbitrary (from linear to deep) binary classifier from only unlabeled (U) data by ERM. We prove that it is impossible to estimate the risk of an arbitrar…
New method extends supervised learning for non-stationary control problems.
problem Optimal control in non-stationary, reset-free environments.
method Prospective Learning with Control (PLuC) using Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM).
result ERM asymptotically achieves Bayes optimal policy in non-stationary environments.
A new machine learning framework called machine collaboration improves prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in machine learning.
method Machine Collaboration (MaC) framework, which uses a circular and interactive learning approach.
result Machine Collaboration framework significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in most cases.
The study improves sentiment analysis of 10-K filings, revealing aggregation effects on accuracy and correlation with market outcomes.
problem Lack of sentiment analysis for 10-K filings, particularly for risk disclosures.
method Supervised lexicon-learning approach applied to 10-K filings and Item 1A risk-factor sections, trained against return and volatility labels at different levels of aggregation.
result Sentiment analysis of Item 1A sections performs better at the individual-firm level, while full-filing text is more accurate at sector and portfolio levels.
Gaussian Processes outperform other models in estimating uncertainty for radiology report observation detection.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automatic data labelling for semi-supervised learning in clinical NLP.
method Investigation of uncertainty estimates from various predictive models using NLPP and MMPCL metrics.
result Gaussian Processes provide superior performance in quantifying uncertainty for radiology report observation detection.
In many machine learning scenarios, supervision by gold labels is not available and consequently neural models cannot be trained directly by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). In a weak supervision scenario, metric-augmented objectives can be employed to assign feedback to model outputs, which can be used to extract …
Boosting for off-policy learning reduces empirical risk.
problem Learning from logged bandit feedback without labeled data.
method A boosting algorithm optimizing policy's expected reward.
result Excess empirical risk decreases with each round of boosting.
Study on clustering in high dimensions with anisotropic Gaussian mixtures, showing interpolation can be optimal and robust.
problem Clustering in high-dimensional anisotropic Gaussian mixtures.
method Derive minimax bounds, analyze ℓ2-regularized classifiers, and investigate interpolation's robustness. result Interpolating solutions can be optimal and robust under certain conditions.
Multi-domain learning (MDL) aims at obtaining a model with minimal average risk across multiple domains. Our empirical motivation is automated microscopy data, where cultured cells are imaged after being exposed to known and unknown chemical perturbations, and each dataset displays significant experimental bias. This p…