GraphShield uses dynamic graph learning to detect and visualize financial risks.
problem Detecting and mitigating risks in financial networks.
method Enhanced Cross-Domain Information Learning, Advanced Risk Recognition, Risk Propagation Visualization.
result GraphShield effectively identifies and visualizes hidden financial risks.
Establishes relationships between prudence and stability properties of risk functionals.
problem Stability properties of risk functionals
method General relationships and preservation of prudence under cash-additive hulls and inf-convolutions
result General methods for constructing prudent risk measures
Modeling financial systemic risk with optimal control theory for stability.
problem Analyzing and stabilizing systemic risk in interconnected financial entities.
method Developed a theoretical model using optimal control theory, including steps for synthesizing stabilizing controllers.
result The model ensures that the H∞ norms of the mappings from disturbance to output are less than a predefined constant, stabilizing the system. Debt-financed collateral in DeFi increases stability risks.
problem Financial stability risks in DeFi ecosystems due to debt-financed collateral.
method Categorization and classification algorithm to measure debt-financed collateral.
result Wide-spread use of stablecoins as debt-financed collateral increases financial stability risks.
There is accumulating evidence in the literature that stability of learning algorithms is a key characteristic that permits a learning algorithm to generalize. Despite various insightful results in this direction, there seems to be an overlooked dichotomy in the type of stability-based generalization bounds we have in …
New algorithms achieve uniform stability for empirical risk minimization.
problem Designing uniformly stable optimization algorithms for empirical risk minimization.
method Black-box conversion of smooth optimization algorithms and development of Mirror Descent for smooth optimization.
result Optimal algorithms with uniform stability and convergence rates for smooth optimization.
Paper proposes a new framework to improve stability-based bounds in deep learning.
problem Explaining generalization in overparameterized neural networks.
method Decomposes excess risk dynamics into signal and noise components, applying stability-based bounds only to the noise.
result The decomposition framework improves stability-based bounds and explains generalization in neural networks.
New algorithms help machines forget old data efficiently.
problem Machine learning models can retain old data, hindering new learning.
method Developed TV-stable algorithms based on noisy SGD for convex and non-convex functions.
result Achieved efficient unlearning with upper and lower bounds on risk.
Paper uses Time Series Transformer for bank stability prediction.
problem Predicting bank stability using complex financial data.
method Time Series Transformer model with self-attention mechanism.
result Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in MSE and MAE.
Study accelerates gradient methods in machine learning, revealing risk and stability connections.
problem Understanding the statistical risk of accelerated gradient methods in machine learning.
method Continuous-time analysis of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method and Polyak's heavy ball method for least squares regression.
result Connections between early stopping, stability, and curvature of loss function are revealed.
GNMR controls runtime stability in low-precision language model training.
problem Efficient low-precision training faces numerical risks at specific operators.
method GNMR compares gradient norms to historical means, applying bounded recovery actions.
result GNMR preserves high-fidelity quality with sparse, budgeted recovery.
Paper uses TDA to assess cryptocurrency risk by measuring phase space instability.
problem Traditional risk measures fail to capture market dynamics' geometric structure.
method Applied Takens' Delay Embedding Theorem to generate point cloud, computed persistent homology groups, defined Topological Persistence Norm.
result Proposed leverage calibration heuristic based on persistence of 1-dimensional cycles.
New bounds show faster convergence for learning algorithms.
problem Improving risk bounds for learning algorithms.
method Using algorithmic stability and common assumptions like Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition, smoothness, and Lipschitz continuity.
result Achieves convergence rate of O(log2(n)/n2) with high probability. New method turns optimization algorithms into uniformly stable learning algorithms for non-Euclidean norms.
problem Non-Euclidean norms in binary classification problems.
method Black-box reduction method using uniformly convex regularizers.
result Achieves optimal statistical risk bounds on excess risk for non-Euclidean norms.
New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.
problem Controlling risk for non-monotonic losses with multidimensional parameters.
method Stability-based guarantees for generic algorithms applied to non-monotonic losses.
result Guarantees depend on algorithm stability, with looser guarantees for unstable algorithms.
Noise can stabilize systemic risk models with uncertain robustness.
problem Understanding systemic risk in financial systems with uncertain parameters.
method Analyzing a mean-field model of systemic risk with uncertain coefficients and noise.
result Noise can induce stability in systemic risk models, contrary to intuition.
Analyzes how many people can receive stable income in a pooled annuity fund.
problem Quantifying the trade-off between income stability and the number of members in a pooled annuity fund.
method Investment returns held constant, systematic longevity risk omitted. Derived an analytical expression for income stability.
result The number of fund members who receive stable income is independent of the mortality model.
Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.
Batching stabilizes risk in high-dimensional linear regression models.
problem Stability and risk behavior in high-dimensional overparameterized linear regression.
method Minimum-norm overparameterized linear regression model with batch-partitioning.
result Optimal batch size is inversely proportional to noise level and overparametrization ratio, leading to stable risk behavior.
Enhanced stability improves privacy in machine learning.
problem Improving privacy in machine learning training while maintaining accuracy.
method Study of stability in private empirical risk minimization, focusing on strongly-convex loss functions and uniform stability.
result An algorithm with uniform stability of β implies a bound of O(√β) on the scale of noise required for differential privacy.
Recurring international financial crises have adverse socioeconomic effects and demand novel regulatory instruments or strategies for risk management and market stabilization. However, the complex web of market interactions often impedes rational decisions that would absolutely minimize the risk. Here we show that, for…
New stability framework relaxes boundedness assumptions for generalization bounds.
problem Overly restrictive assumptions for modern learning settings with heavy-tailed or unbounded losses.
method Develops a stability-based framework requiring only finite Lp moment conditions. result Sharp generalization bounds derived for various learning paradigms.
We formulate and analyze a multi-agent model for the evolution of individual and systemic risk in which the local agents interact with each other through a central agent who, in turn, is influenced by the mean field of the local agents. The central agent is stabilized by a bistable potential, the only stabilizing force…
RIVCoin stabilizes cryptocurrency portfolios through a DAO and redistributes income.
problem Stabilizing cryptocurrency value and aligning incentives for all users.
method Decentralized DAO, diversified reserves, and income redistribution.
result Aligns incentives for wealthier users to stabilize smaller users' risk.
GNN improves financial risk detection in dynamic networks.
problem Complex, changing financial networks make traditional risk identification methods ineffective.
method Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for embedded representation learning of financial data.
result GNN enhances the detection of hidden risks and abnormal behaviors in financial networks.
Paper analyzes IHT's performance in sparse recovery problems.
problem Generalization performance of Iterative Hard Thresholding (IHT).
method Sparse generalization theory under algorithmic stability.
result IHT achieves convergence rates in sparse excess risk.
We examine the problem of dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure. The reserver requires to hedge risk in a time-consistent manner by trading in baskets of currencies. We show that reserving portfolios in multiple currencies V are time-consistent when (and only…
New stability bounds for GD in overparameterised shallow nets without NTK assumptions.
problem Generalisation and excess risk bounds for shallow neural networks.
method Oracle inequalities and stability analysis of GD without kernelisation.
result Oracle type bounds reveal GD's generalisation is controlled by an interpolating network with shortest GD path.
We contrast Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), the theoretical basis for the development of financial instruments, with a dynamical picture of an interacting market, in a simple setting. The proliferation of financial instruments apparently provides more means for risk diversification, making the market more efficient and…
New stability analysis improves generalization of multipass SGD.
problem Improper preconditioning affects generalization in multipass SGD.
method Developed on-average stability analysis for multipass SGD.
result Proper preconditioning yields optimal effective dimension dependence.
Compound Finance optimizes risk metrics for V3 protocol using Chainrisk simulations.
problem Optimizing systemic risks in Compound V3 protocol.
method Millions of Chainrisk simulations to evaluate VaR and LaR, providing parameter adjustments.
result Optimization framework enhances protocol stability.
Paper analyzes stability and generalization of SCO algorithms.
problem Understanding how SCO algorithms perform on unseen data.
method Algorithmic stability analysis in statistical learning theory.
result Derives dimension-independent excess risk bounds for SCGD and SCSC.
The paper examines how CoCo bonds can enhance financial stability in interconnected banking systems.
problem Enhancing financial stability in interconnected banking systems.
method Financial network model with contingent convertible (CoCo) debt obligations.
result Replacing unsecured interbank debt with CoCo debt decreases systemic risk and increases bank shareholder value.
This paper analyzes stability and generalization of Markov chain stochastic gradient methods.
problem Analyzing stability and generalization of Markov chain stochastic gradient methods.
method Algorithmic stability in statistical learning theory.
result Established optimal generalization bounds for both smooth and non-smooth cases.
New risk measures improve portfolio diversification and stability.
problem Concentration risk in traditional portfolio optimization methods.
method Equal-correlation portfolio strategy with mathematical optimization.
result Improved risk diversification and stable returns.
Study quantifies financial contagion risks in supply chains.
problem Supply chain shocks contribute to financial losses.
method Multi-layer network framework, micro-dataset of Hungarian firms.
result Supply chain shocks amplify financial losses by 4-3x.
We consider a system of diffusion processes that interact through their empirical mean and have a stabilizing force acting on each of them, corresponding to a bistable potential. There are three parameters that characterize the system: the strength of the intrinsic stabilization, the strength of the external random per…
Optimizes dividends with stability for risky businesses.
problem Maximizing dividends with stability in risky businesses.
method Linear-quadratic optimization for a general Lévy process.
result Derives optimal affine dividend strategies with stability.
Simplifies study of multivariate shortfall risk measures.
problem Complexity in studying multivariate shortfall risk measures.
method Defines shortfall risk measures through a 1-dimensional function.
result Simplifies properties of multivariate shortfall risk measures.
We provide a dual characterisation of the weak∗-closure of a finite sum of cones in L∞ adapted to a discrete time filtration Ft: the tth cone in the sum contains bounded random variables that are Ft-measurable. Hence we obtain a generalisation of Delbaen's m-stability condition…
This paper introduces Libra to analyze and optimize generalization in Federated Learning.
problem Inconsistent local optima in Federated Learning lead to poor generalization performance.
method Introduces Libra, a generalization dynamics analysis framework for algorithm-dependent excess risk minimization.
result Libra highlights the trade-offs between model stability and gradient norms in Federated Learning.
Developed a new risk measure, CRI, for evaluating concentrated portfolios.
problem Current risk assessment methods fail to adequately evaluate concentrated portfolios.
method Modified Herfindahl-Hirschman index to create CRI.
result CRI provides a single numeric score for evaluating portfolio risks.
PAC-Bayes bounds have been proposed to get risk estimates based on a training sample. In this paper the PAC-Bayes approach is combined with stability of the hypothesis learned by a Hilbert space valued algorithm. The PAC-Bayes setting is used with a Gaussian prior centered at the expected output. Thus a novelty of our …
We introduce a notion of algorithmic stability of learning algorithms---that we term \emph{argument stability}---that captures stability of the hypothesis output by the learning algorithm in the normed space of functions from which hypotheses are selected. The main result of the paper bounds the generalization error of…
This article studies the sensitivity of the power utility maximization problem with respect to the investor's relative risk aversion, the statistical probability measure, the investment constraints and the market price of risk. We extend previous descriptions of the dual domain then exploit the link between the constra…
Unified framework explains why overfitting is benign in interpolating learning.
problem Understanding why overfitting is benign in highly overparameterized models.
method Spectral-transport stability framework.
result Sharp benign-overfitting criterion and explicit phase-transition rates.
This paper analyzes the stability and generalization of triplet learning algorithms.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of triplet learning's generalization performance.
method Stability analysis and high-probability generalization bounds for triplet learning algorithms.
result Established general high-probability generalization bound for triplet learning algorithms.
The paper analyzes stability and generalization of shallow neural networks using gradient methods.
problem Understanding the generalization of overparameterized shallow neural networks.
method The paper uses gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent to study shallow neural networks, developing consistent excess risk bounds.
result The analysis improves on existing methods by providing a refined estimation of iterates and Hessian eigenvalues, leading to better excess risk bounds.