In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean- portfolio we compute portfolio's Profit and Loss series and corresponded risk measures curves. Value-…
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48 results for “risk curve”
The work deals with the risk assessment theory. An unitary risk algorithm is elaborated. The algorithm is based on parallel curves. The basic curve of risk is a hyperbolic curve, obtained as a multiplication between the probability of occurrence of certain event and its impact. Section 1 contains the problem formulatio…
Empirical risk minimizers can be non-monotonic in learning curves.
problem Understanding the behavior of learning curves for empirical risk minimizers.
method Introducing risk monotonicity and analyzing its implications for various learners.
result Standard learners that minimize empirical risk can be non-monotonic regardless of training sample size.
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
problem Noisy and uncertain U.S. Treasury yields pose risk to forecast users.
method Formulates yield curve forecasting as a distributionally robust problem, combining factor models and machine learning.
result Robust forecast combinations improve out-of-sample performance across different maturity periods.
RestoreAI predicts landmine risk from patterns, improving clearance efficiency.
problem Predicting landmine risk from spatial patterns to enhance clearance efficiency.
method RestoreAI uses landmine patterns for risk prediction, implementing three deminers: linear, curved, and Bayesian.
result RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency, achieving a 14.37 percentage point increase in cleared landmines per timestep.
Two models show risk peaks and decreases with feature count.
problem Understanding risk curves in machine learning models with weak features.
method Analyzing two simple data models with least squares/least norm predictors.
result Risk peaks when features are close to sample size, decreases beyond it.
Optimal cutoff interval for risk scores improves binary classification accuracy.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy with abstention.
method Determines optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, refraining from decisions outside this interval.
result Minimizes classification margin and maximizes accuracy within the interval.
This study proves new financial market theorems breaking standard risk definitions.
problem Breaking standard risk definitions in financial markets.
method Presenting proofs for new financial market theorems.
result New definitions are richer and broader than standard ones considering shape.
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
problem Inconsistency in pricing zero-coupon bonds and equity markets.
method Unified term structure of interest rates framework using put-call parity.
result Option-implied yield curves closely match treasury par yield curves.
We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market data with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship…
This study models Burundi's bond market yield curve using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
problem Modeling the yield curve of Burundian bond market for financial analytics.
method Collected treasury securities auction reports, computed zero-coupon rates, and applied Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
result Nelson-Siegel model is optimal for Burundian yield curve modeling.
We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for a finite number of time-to-maturity buckets, we propose a modelling framework w…
Proposes a model for long-term electricity contracts with explicit computation and easy calibration.
problem Non-storability and poor liquidity in long-term electricity markets.
method Multi-factor polynomial framework for explicit computation of forwards, risk premium, and correlation.
result Calibrated model provides a risk-minimizing hedge for various time horizons.
SSPN uses deep learning to estimate risk scores in survival analysis with competing risks.
problem Nonidentifiability of cause-specific survival curves in competing risk survival analysis.
method Siamese Survival Prognosis Network (SSPN) that avoids estimating cause-specific survival curves and optimizes an approximation to the C-discrimination index.
result SSPN estimates pairwise concordant time-dependent risks, improving risk scoring in survival analysis with competing risks.
Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
The High Line: Exact Risk and Learning Rate Curves of Stochastic Adaptive Learning Rate Algorithmsmath.OC
Exact risk and learning rate curves derived for adaptive SGD on high-dimensional problems.
problem Analyzing risk and learning rate dynamics in high-dimensional optimization problems.
method Developed a framework to give exact expressions for risk and learning rate curves using ODEs.
result Exact expressions for risk and learning rate curves, with detailed analysis of two adaptive learning rates.
By adopting the polynomial interpolation method, we propose an approach to hedge against the interest-rate risk of the default-free bonds by measuring the nonparallel movement of the yield-curve, such as the translation, the rotation and the twist. The empirical analysis shows that our hedging strategies are comparable…
Paper discusses extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
problem Extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
method Discuss and adapt Gini score for ties and case weights.
result Gini score can be used for tied rankings and case weights.
New tensor approach models global fixed income risks across maturities and economies.
problem Lack of models capturing multi-dimensional data in global fixed income markets.
method Introduces tensor-valued approach to model shared risks among multiple interest rate curves.
result Estimates risk factors decomposable into maturity and country domains, enabling tailored portfolio management.
Expanding on techniques of concentration of measure, we develop a quantitative framework for modeling liquidity risk using convex risk measures. The fundamental objects of study are curves of the form , where is a convex risk measure and a random variable, and we call such a curve a \emph{liqu…
The paper uses daily bond price data to estimate corporate default spreads, improving credit risk assessment.
problem Outdated credit risk information from quarterly accounting items.
method Adapting classic yield curve estimation methods to corporate bonds, using Bayesian estimation.
result High-frequency credit risk proxy via corporate default spreads improves model stability and prediction uncertainty.
MDS selects assets by combining daily returns and intraday risk curves, improving portfolio performance.
problem High estimation error in large-scale asset selection.
method Metric Dependence Screening (MDS) incorporating high frequency information as object valued data.
result MDS improves portfolio performance over benchmarks by preserving intraday risk dynamics.
Interest-Rate Modelling in Collateralized Markets: Multiple curves, credit-liquidity effects, CCPsq-fin.PR
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
Neural network model improves robustness of mortgage bond yield curve estimation.
problem Overfitting and instability in traditional yield curve estimation methods for small mortgage bond markets.
method Neural network framework with a new loss function for smoothness and stability.
result Empirical results show more robust and stable yield curve estimates compared to existing methods.
Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.
problem Estimating cumulative incidence functions in competing risks settings.
method Uses augmented estimators of the Brier score risk to build and prune regression trees.
result Demonstrates the utility of the proposed methods through simulation studies and real data.
New algorithms avoid non-monotonic risk curves in statistical learning.
problem Non-monotonic behavior of risk curves in statistical learning.
method Derive risk-monotonic algorithms under weak assumptions.
result Risk monotonicity does not necessarily lead to worse excess risk rates.
This paper tests yield curve generators for property-casualty insurers.
problem Quantifying interest-rate risk for property-casualty insurers with high bond holdings.
method Develops and tests yield curve generators to quantify bond-value changes.
result Tests yield curve generators against known distributional properties of yield curves.
New study shows how model complexity affects test risk, challenging classical theory.
problem Understanding how test risk scales with model complexity for large over-parametrized deep networks.
method Developed norm-based capacity measures for random features based estimators, providing precise characterization of estimator's norm concentration and test error.
result Predicted learning curve shows a phase transition from under- to over-parameterization, confirming classical U-shaped behavior with appropriate capacity measures.
Over-parameterized CNNs show U-shaped test risk with depth increase.
problem Understanding the impact of depth on test risk in over-parameterized CNNs.
method Empirical image classification experiments and linear regression framework.
result Test risk is U-shaped with increasing depth in over-parameterized CNNs.
We formalize AURC and develop estimators for SC systems.
problem Evaluation of SC systems' performance.
method Formal statistical formulation, Monte Carlo methods, plug-in estimators.
result Plug-in estimators are consistent, with low bias and bounded MSE.
Detects potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools to protect LPs.
problem Detecting and alerting LPs to potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools.
method Constructed metrics based on price and trading data, fine-tuned BOCD algorithm.
result Model detects USDC depeg 5 hours before price dip, with few false alarms.
Investigates risk measures for DC pension decumulation.
problem Develop optimal decumulation strategies for DC plan holders.
method Formulates decumulation as a control problem, studies risk measures (expected shortfall, linear shortfall, probability of shortfall).
result Optimal controls for expected reward and expected shortfall are identical to those for expected reward and linear shortfall.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
Paper proposes embedding models to capture semantic similarities of categorical attributes in financial bonds.
problem Challenges in finding similar bonds due to overshadowing of categorical non-financial attributes.
method Embedding models to capture semantic similarities of categorical attributes.
result Improves risk modeling and curve construction via sparse-issuer augmentation.
We present a dialogue on Funding Costs and Counterparty Credit Risk modeling, inclusive of collateral, wrong way risk, gap risk and possible Central Clearing implementation through CCPs. This framework is important following the fact that derivatives valuation and risk analysis has moved from exotic derivatives managed…
DBN improves sepsis mortality risk prediction in ICU patients.
problem Early sepsis detection in ICU patients with infection.
method Data-driven, semantically enhanced dynamic Bayesian network.
result DBN AUROC 0.91, outperforming other scoring tools.
We present a detailed analysis of interest rate derivatives valuation under credit risk and collateral modeling. We show how the credit and collateral extended valuation framework in Pallavicini et al (2011), and the related collateralized valuation measure, can be helpful in defining the key market rates underlying th…
New insights into overfitting peaks in generalization error for and penalized interpolation.
problem Understanding the phenomenon of overfitting peaks in generalization error for modern machine learning models.
method Introducing a generative and fitting model pair (MiSpaR) and deriving analytical risk curves for and penalties.
result The overfitting peak can be dissociated from the point of model flexibility, complicating the interpretation of overfitting as a boundary between classical and modern regimes.
One Other Option Pricing Schemeq-fin.CP
A new method for pricing options with flexible volatility shapes.
problem Parameterizing risk-neutral distributions for accurate option pricing.
method Parsimonious and interpretable parameters for direct control over implied volatility curves.
result Accurate calibration across a large dataset of option curves.
A new method uses SVMs and active learning for efficient fragility curve estimation.
problem Estimating fragility curves for structures under seismic and other excitations.
method Support Vector Machines (SVMs) coupled with active learning algorithm.
result Efficient estimation of fragility curves with reduced numerical calculations.
This article presents FVA and CVA of a bilateral derivative in a coherent manner, based on recent developments in fair value accounting and ISDA standards. We argue that a derivative liability, after primary risk factors being hedged, resembles in economics an issued variable funding note, and should be priced at the m…
Paper explores universal rates of ERM in machine learning.
problem Understanding universal learning rates for ERM.
method Analyzes realizable concept classes and ERM principles.
result Four possible universal learning rates by ERM.
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
Self-training in linear models shows a U-shaped test-risk curve due to signal forgetting and denoising.
problem Understanding the dynamics of iterative self-training in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Derivation of deterministic-equivalent recursions for prediction risk and effective noise, analysis of signal forgetting and denoising effects.
result An optimal early-stopping time is determined, and a U-shaped test-risk curve is observed.
SignSGD analysis quantifies its effects in high dimensions.
problem Understanding signSGD's effects in high-dimensional settings.
method High-dimensional analysis of signSGD, deriving SDE and ODE for risk.
result Quantification of signSGD's effects: effective learning rate, noise compression, diagonal preconditioning, gradient noise reshaping.
Local risk-minimization with multiple assets under illiquidity with applications in energy marketsq-fin.MF
We propose a hedging approach for general contingent claims when liquidity is a concern and trading is subject to transaction cost. Multiple assets with different liquidity levels are available for hedging. Our risk criterion targets a tradeoff between minimizing the risk against fluctuations in the stock price and inc…
This paper explores leverage staking with stETH, revealing high returns but also significant risks.
problem Leverage staking introduces risks through intensified selling pressure and cascading liquidations.
method Formal framework for leverage staking, stress tests under extreme conditions of stETH devaluation.
result Leverage staking amplifies risks, leading to intensified selling pressure and price declines.
Study optimal portfolio choice with risk control for log-returns.
problem Optimal portfolio choice with risk management in continuous-time markets.
method Characterized optimal terminal wealth using concave envelope, derived analytical expressions for optimal wealth and policy, found efficient frontier.
result Efficient frontier is concave curve connecting minimum-risk to growth-optimal portfolios, not a vertical line.