Develops local population-risk certificates for model updates
problem Model updates in machine learning
method Certify population-risk increments around a model
result Certified upper endpoint yields a risk-controlled update rule
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48 results for “risk certification”
Paper develops tighter risk certificates for contrastive learning models.
problem Statistical theory for contrastive learning is lacking, especially for practical models like SimCLR.
method Develops non-vacuous PAC-Bayesian risk certificates considering practical SimCLR factors.
result Risk certificates for contrastive loss and downstream prediction are much tighter than previous results.
Some theoretical improvements on the tightness of PAC-Bayes risk certificates for neural networkscs.LG
The paper improves risk certificate tightness for neural networks using PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving the usability of risk certificates for neural networks based on PAC-Bayes bounds.
method Theoretical contributions including KL divergence bounds, efficient methodology for optimization, and methods for optimizing non-differentiable objectives.
result First non-vacuous generalization bounds on CIFAR-10 for neural networks.
New method certifies deep graph classifiers with tighter risk bounds.
problem Certifying the reliability of deep graph classifiers.
method Linearized deep assignment flows with random initial conditions, using PAC-Bayes risk certification.
result Computes tighter out-of-sample risk certificates efficiently.
TUV Austria proposes certification for ML applications to ensure reliability.
problem Ensuring trust in AI applications to meet societal reliance requirements.
method Holistic approach analyzing security, functionality, data quality, ethics, and criticality levels.
result Certification process for low-risk ML applications in supervised learning.
New method reduces computational cost for estimating PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem High computational cost in estimating PAC-Bayes bounds.
method General alternative method that makes computational savings.
result Reduces computational cost on the order of the dataset size.
Develops certificates for local population-risk increments using cross-fitted ridge calibration.
problem Certifying local population-risk increments in statistical models.
method Cross-fitted ridge calibration for linear feature classes, separating Taylor fluctuations and remainders.
result Certifies measurable updates from the same sample with penalties dependent on empirical geometry.
Paper presents new training methods for neural networks with tighter risk certificates.
problem Training probabilistic neural networks with tighter risk certificates.
method Derived from PAC-Bayes bounds, two training objectives implemented for the first time in neural networks.
result Competitive test set errors and non-vacuous risk bounds with tighter values than previous results.
New method certifies risks of LLM outputs, improving accuracy and reliability.
problem Uncertain and incorrect outputs from large language models.
method Information-lift certificates using PAC-Bayes bounds and skeleton design.
result Achieves 77.0% coverage at 2% risk, outperforming baselines.
Valid certifies LLMs' domain adherence, bounding out-of-domain behavior.
problem Adversarial susceptibility of LLMs to generate out-of-domain outputs.
method VALID approach providing adversarial bounds as a certificate.
result Validates LLMs' domain adherence with meaningful certificates.
CROP verifies clean prefixes in reasoning traces, improving downstream repair accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in reasoning traces prevents full certification of entire responses.
method CROP selects a calibrated threshold to certify the longest prefix with low risk proxies.
result CROP improves downstream repair accuracy by preserving valid reasoning and discarding misleading suffixes.
New method improves robustness of smoothed classifiers.
problem Improving accuracy and robustness of smoothed classifiers.
method Regularized risk with adaptive regularization.
result Tighter robustness bounds with high probability.
The study identifies conditions under which algorithmic stability explains generalization in interpolating learning systems.
problem Understanding when algorithmic stability explains generalization in interpolating learning systems.
method Modeling training as a function-space trajectory and measuring sensitivity to single-sample perturbations.
result There exist interpolating regimes with small risk where contractive sensitivity cannot hold, showing that stability is not a universal explanation.
We create consistent option surfaces without arbitrage.
problem Constructing consistent option surfaces free of arbitrage across different maturities.
method Combining PCA-Smolyak approximation with chain-consistent diffusion and c-EMOT bridge.
result Computable certificates for strong convexity, solver correctness, and Dupire/Greeks stability.
This paper introduces modal epistemic tools for risk management.
problem Identifying and certifying risk claims when institutions lack the necessary epistemic stance.
method Develops crisp and fuzzy modal semantics for assurance and working commitment, distinguishing between object-level risk claims and meta-level epistemic diagnostics.
result Risk governance should model evidential incompleteness and failures of escalation, not just hazards and losses.
New algorithms learn stability certificates from data, avoiding complex dynamics.
problem Synthesizing stability certificates from complex dynamical systems.
method Developed algorithms to learn certificate functions from trajectory data, establishing generalization error bounds.
result Efficiently learned certificates can be used for adaptive control.
Proposes guidelines for developing medical AI products.
problem Lack of clear pathways for regulating medical AI.
method Statistical risk perspective and deep understanding of machine learning methodologies.
result Enhanced development of medical AI products and regulations.
Improved neural network robustness certification through tighter convex relaxations.
problem Certifying neural network robustness to perturbed and adversarial inputs.
method Exploiting ReLU network structure, novel partition-based certification procedure.
result Tightens existing linear programming relaxations to achieve zero relaxation error asymptotically.
Develops structured noise for more accurate graph classifier robustness certificates.
problem Isotropic noise limits robustness certificates for graph classifiers.
method Randomized smoothing with anisotropic noise distribution.
result Structured-aware robustness certificates provide more accurate predictions.
New method closes certification gap for adversarially trained models.
problem Certifying robustness of adversarially trained neural networks.
method Nonconvex low-rank SDP relaxation with polynomial-time optimization.
result Strong certifications comparable to SDP methods, but with fewer variables.
New approach to adversarial robustness with non-uniform perturbations.
problem Real-world adversaries craft adversarial examples with non-uniform perturbations.
method Proposes non-uniform perturbations based on feature dependencies and data distribution.
result Shows improved robustness to real-world attacks compared to uniform perturbations.
Risk-Control Strategiesq-fin.RM
In this paper, we consider the pricing of derivative products that involve dynamic hedging strategies and payments within the planning horizon. Equity-indexed annuities (EIAs), Guaranteed investment certificate (GIC), American and Barrier options are typical examples of these products. Our exploration involves evaluati…
While neural networks have achieved high performance in different learning tasks, their accuracy drops significantly in the presence of small adversarial perturbations to inputs. Defenses based on regularization and adversarial training are often followed by new attacks to defeat them. In this paper, we propose attack-…
New framework improves adversarial robustness certification for various perturbations.
problem Certifying robustness against adversarial attacks in deep learning models.
method Unified functional optimization approach with non-Gaussian smoothing noise for multiple types of attacks.
result Achieves better certification results and identifies key trade-offs between accuracy and robustness.
Bayesian method synthesizes barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states.
problem Certifying safety in systems with unknown dynamics and latent states.
method Bayesian inference with Metropolis-Hastings sampler and sum-of-squares program.
result Probabilistic validity of barrier certificates for unknown systems.
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.
CSA fills a gap in RLVR-trained LLM deployment by providing anytime-valid selective risk control.
problem Deployment of RLVR-trained LLMs in regulated organizations requires a safety certificate for every round without waiting for long-run averages.
method CSA uses a (test statistic, validity guarantee, deployment rule) framework to fill the gap, maintaining a Ville-type e-process per threshold on a Bonferroni grid.
result CSA provides the first anytime-valid selective risk control for RLVR-trained LLMs, matching the long-run average certification rate and satisfying pathwise validity and non-refusing deployment on every cell.
The performance of a reinforcement learning algorithm can vary drastically during learning because of exploration. Existing algorithms provide little information about the quality of their current policy before executing it, and thus have limited use in high-stakes applications like healthcare. We address this lack of …
Optimizes risk-neutral probabilities for derivative pricing.
problem Deriving bounds on derivative values under multiple risk-neutral scenarios.
method Convex optimization over the set of risk-neutral probability distributions.
result Tractable finite-dimensional optimization problems for pricing.
New method provides tighter robustness guarantees for adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring robustness against adversarial attacks in machine learning models.
method Developed a Second-order Smoothing (SoS) robustness certificate using Gaussian random smoothing.
result SoS certificates are tighter and provide improved robustness on high-dimensional datasets.
Unified framework certifies predictor performance under distribution shift.
problem Certifying predictor performance under distribution shift.
method Unified framework with explicit inequalities, sound verification, and identifiable structure.
result Explicit upper bound on excess risk under shift.
We present a novel approach to the pricing of financial instruments in emission markets, for example, the EU ETS. The proposed structural model is positioned between existing complex full equilibrium models and pure reduced form models. Using an exogenously specified demand for a polluting good it gives a causal explan…
EL framework certifies and flags bias in ML models without distributional assumptions.
problem Systematic performance disparities across sensitive subpopulations in ML models.
method Empirical likelihood-based approach for non-parametric fairness auditing.
result EL framework outperforms bootstrap methods in certification and subpopulation discovery.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empiric…
Paper provides efficient robustness certificates for neural networks.
problem Ensuring neural networks are robust against adversarial attacks.
method Two-step approach: 1) Efficient convex optimization for robustness certificates with bounded Hessian eigenvalues, 2) Curvature-based regularization during training.
result Significantly higher certified robust accuracy achieved compared to existing methods.
Breaking certified defenses: Semantic adversarial examples with spoofed robustness certificatescs.LG
New attack tricks certifiably robust models into mislabeling images.
problem Defeating certified defenses against adversarial examples.
method Spoofed robustness certificates and large perturbations.
result Certifiably robust models can be fooled by large perturbations.
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
New robustness certificates for streaming models with a sliding window.
problem Applying robustness certificates to streaming data with correlated inputs.
method Deriving robustness certificates for models using a sliding window over a sequence of potentially correlated inputs.
result Guarantees hold for the average model performance across the entire stream, independent of stream size.
Survey examines challenges of ML in avionic systems certification.
problem Challenges in current certification standards for ML in avionic systems.
method Literature review focusing on robustness and explainability of ML results.
result Current certification standards do not support ML in avionic systems.
On the Tightness of Semidefinite Relaxations for Certifying Robustness to Adversarial Examplesmath.OC
Geometric technique determines exactness of SDP robustness certificate.
problem Certifying robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples.
method Geometric projection onto hyperbola, SDP relaxation of ReLU activation.
result SDP certificate is exact for a single hidden layer under mild assumptions.
Study adversarial perturbations in classification, analyzing learning and certification.
problem Formal study of classification under adversarial perturbations from both learner and third-party perspectives.
method PAC-type semi-supervised learning framework, black-box certification under limited query budget, adversary analysis.
result Existence of a polynomial query complexity adversary implies the existence of a sample efficient robust learner.
New method improves robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
problem Improving robustness of smoothed classifiers against adversarial attacks.
method Proposes worst-case adversarial loss over input distributions as a robustness certificate, and uses duality and smoothness properties to provide an easy-to-compute upper bound.
result Shows superior robustness performance over state-of-the-art certified or heuristic methods.
New framework certifies robustness for regression models.
problem Certifying robustness for regression models is challenging.
method Derives a prediction-centered certificate that exploits local geometry.
result Gradient information yields tighter robustness certificates.
Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey …
SREC markets are a relatively novel market-based system to incentivize the production of energy from solar means. A regulator imposes a floor on the amount of energy each regulated firm must generate from solar power in a given period and provides them with certificates for each generated MWh. Firms offset these certif…
This work improves adversarial robustness in sparse coding models.
problem The gap between theoretical models and practical deployment in adversarial robustness.
method Combining a sparsity-promoting encoder with a linear classifier, and providing a robustness certificate.
result Bounding the robust risk and providing a robustness certificate for end-to-end classification.
This paper develops a general theoretical framework to analyze structured sparse recovery problems using the notation of dual certificate. Although certain aspects of the dual certificate idea have already been used in some previous work, due to the lack of a general and coherent theory, the analysis has so far only be…
Given a tame knot K presented in the form of a knot diagram, we show that the problem of determining whether K is knotted is in the complexity class NP, assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis (GRH). In other words, there exists a polynomial-length certificate that can be verified in polynomial time to prove that K…