Empirical evidence supports new financial market definitions.
problem Investor risk attitudes in financial markets.
method Developed a new method to analyze risk attitudes.
result Risk-averse behavior in equity investors, risk-loving behavior in risk-free asset investors.
Model assesses credit risk using behavioral data from Experian and Bank of Italy.
problem Improving credit risk assessment in financial institutions.
method Statistical and machine learning techniques applied to behavioral data from Experian and Bank of Italy.
result Demonstrates transferability of the model from private to central data.
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during learning. In this framework, the preference for risk can be tuned by variation of the p…
Using elements from the theory of ergodic backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE), we study the behavior of forward entropic risk measures. We provide their general representation results (via both BSDE and convex duality) and examine their behavior for risk positions of long maturities. We show that forward …
The paper addresses human-like decision-making in multi-agent systems using bounded risk-sensitive Markov Games.
problem Modeling human-like decision-making in multi-agent systems with risk-seeking and loss-aversion behaviors.
method Forward policy design and inverse reward learning with iterative reasoning and cumulative prospect theory.
result The proposed algorithms demonstrate both risk-averse and risk-seeking behaviors in multi-agent systems.
The goal of this paper is to study organized flocking behavior and systemic risk in heterogeneous mean-field interacting diffusions. We illustrate in a number of case studies the effect of heterogeneity in the behavior of systemic risk in the system, i.e., the risk that several agents default simultaneously as a result…
Improved probabilistic forecasts using behavioral transformations.
problem Improving accuracy and consistency of probabilistic asset price forecasts.
method Behavioral transformation of fundamental expectations to disentangle sentiment-induced biases.
result Substantial forecast gains across various models and risk-preferences.
New model solves equity premium puzzle.
problem Equity premium puzzle regarding risk behavior of investors.
method Developed a new tool called the sufficiency factor to analyze risk behavior of investors.
result Validated the new model with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.033526.
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this paper, we propose a behavior risk aversion model, which is a piecewise linear funct…
Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.
problem Predicting equity risk premium based on stock market behavior changes.
method Introduced Bullish Index and used FDMAA for returns analysis; considered 28 indicators.
result Positive shocks in Bullish Index correlate with strong equity risk premium predictability for up to six months, while negative shocks correlate for up to nine months.
Are cryptocurrency traders driven by a desire to invest in a new asset class to diversify their portfolio or are they merely seeking to increase their levels of risk? To answer this question, we use individual-level brokerage data and study their behavior in stock trading around the time they engage in their first cryp…
This paper takes a deep learning approach to understand consumer credit risk when e-commerce platforms issue unsecured credit to finance customers' purchase. The "NeuCredit" model can capture both serial dependences in multi-dimensional time series data when event frequencies in each dimension differ. It also captures …
Study analyzes gambling behavior and risk attitudes using blockchain data.
problem Lack of real-life gambling data for validating predictions and experimental findings.
method Collects and analyzes betting data from a decentralized application on the Ethereum Blockchain.
result Empirical examples of gambling systems and insights into risk preferences.
This study proves new financial market theorems breaking standard risk definitions.
problem Breaking standard risk definitions in financial markets.
method Presenting proofs for new financial market theorems.
result New definitions are richer and broader than standard ones considering shape.
This research improves value-at-risk estimation during financial crises using non-extensive statistical methods.
problem Underestimation of value-at-risk during financial crises.
method Non-extensive value-at-risk model based on Tsallis entropy and q-Gaussian probability density function.
result The q-Gaussian model provides better value-at-risk estimation during financial crises.
The paper examines the potential of deep learning to support decisions in financial risk management. We develop a deep learning model for predicting whether individual spread traders secure profits from future trades. This task embodies typical modeling challenges faced in risk and behavior forecasting. Conventional ma…
Modeling bank leverage dynamics to understand systemic risk in financial markets.
problem Understanding systemic risk in financial markets triggered by bank leverage dynamics.
method Developed a dynamical model of bank leverage, analyzing coupled dynamics in isolated and interconnected bank models.
result Identified a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage, leading to chaotic dynamics.
The study models mortgage prepayment risk, accounting for behavioral uncertainty, and provides replication strategies.
problem Modeling and replicating the prepayment option of mortgages with behavioral uncertainty.
method Modeling behavioral uncertainty as a non-hedgeable risk factor, proving its impact on exposure value, and using IRSs and swaptions for replication.
result Including behavioral uncertainty reduces the exposure's value, and swaptions are necessary for optimal replication.
The paper integrates behavioral distortions into portfolio optimization using implied probability weighting functions.
problem Behavioral distortions in probability weighting affect portfolio optimization under different return distributions.
method Developed a unified framework to extract probability weighting functions from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and NIG distributions.
result Increasing tail fatness amplifies behavioral distortions, and shifts in risk-free rates alter the curvature of these distortions.
New algorithms avoid non-monotonic risk curves in statistical learning.
problem Non-monotonic behavior of risk curves in statistical learning.
method Derive risk-monotonic algorithms under weak assumptions.
result Risk monotonicity does not necessarily lead to worse excess risk rates.
Framework mitigates risk non-monotonicity in high-dimensional predictions.
problem Risk non-monotonicity in high-dimensional predictions.
method Model-agnostic framework using cross-validation and data-driven methodologies (zero- and one-step).
result Modified prediction procedures achieve monotonic asymptotic risk behavior.
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of their portfolios.The stock price is set according to the demand-supply for the …
Econometric framework integrates heavy-tailed distributions with behavioral probability weighting for better asset pricing.
problem Underestimation of Value-at-Risk by traditional models in asset pricing.
method Developed an econometric framework combining heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting. result Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4% of cases, reducing underestimation of Value-at-Risk by 16.5 percentage points. This paper reviews statistical and machine learning methods for anti-money laundering.
problem Lack of scientific literature on statistical and machine learning methods for anti-money laundering.
method Client risk profiling and suspicious behavior flagging.
result Client risk profiling involves diagnostics, while suspicious behavior flagging involves non-disclosed features and hand-crafted risk indices.
Religious adherence reduces corporate greenwashing behavior.
problem Greenwashing behavior by corporations.
method Analysis of a large US firm sample (2005-2019), focusing on selective disclosure.
result Religious adherence correlates with lower greenwashing behavior.
Predicts academic risk in college students using interpretable machine learning.
problem Predicting academic risk from high-dimensional, unbalanced student data.
method Binary classification task using LightGBM model and Shapley value.
result 8 predictors for academic risk identified, including quality of academic partners and dormitory study atmosphere.
Paper proposes a risk index combining frequency and severity of abnormal driving patterns.
problem Assessing driver risk based on telematics data.
method Combines frequency of abnormal driving patterns with severity quantified through tail rarity.
result Developed a risk index that enables reliable discrimination and ranking of drivers.
Examines financial risks' impact on EU-15 economic growth.
problem The impact of financial risks on economic growth in EU-15.
method Panel estimated generalized least squares method with additional control variables.
result Financial risks significantly impact economic growth in EU-15.
Develops a new risk measure for Markov chains' asymptotic behavior.
problem Lack of risk measures for asymptotic regimes of Markov chains.
method Simulation-based approach using large deviations theory, density estimation, and stochastic approximation.
result Developed Asymptotic CVaR (ACVaR) for Markov chains.
This note investigates the causes of the quality anomaly, which is one of the strongest and most scalable anomalies in equity markets. We explore two potential explanations. The "risk view", whereby investing in high quality firms is somehow riskier, so that the higher returns of a quality portfolio are a compensation …
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
Analyzes how learning algorithms affect and are affected by data manipulation.
problem Characterizing the closed-loop behavior of learning algorithms in the presence of decision-dependent data.
method Analyzes repeated risk minimization as perturbed gradient flows of performative risk minimization, considering multiple local minimizers.
result Characterizes the region of attraction for various equilibria and introduces performative alignment.
Framework scores DeFi users based on liquidity and trading behavior.
problem Distinguishing between liquidity provision and active trading in DeFi.
method Rule-based decomposition, deep residual neural network, pool-level context.
result Deep residual neural network improves user scoring and risk assessment.
We address the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes where the agent is risk-sensitive. In particular, we model risk-sensitivity in a reinforcement learning framework by making use of models of human decision-making having their origins in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, an…
The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.
problem Understanding tail risk probabilities with heavy-tailed marginal risks and Gaussian dependence.
method Modeling heavy-tailed risks using regular variation and analyzing tail probabilities under Gaussian copula.
result The rate of decay of tail set probabilities varies with the type of tail sets and Gaussian correlation matrix.
Study compares Bitcoin and Ethereum tail behavior using Q-Q plots.
problem Examining tail risk in cryptocurrency returns.
method Used Q-Q plots and Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution.
result Ethereum shows more extreme values than Bitcoin, indicating greater tail risk.
Unified formula for optimal portfolio under piecewise hyperbolic risk aversion.
problem Optimizing portfolios with piecewise hyperbolic risk aversion utilities.
method Derive a unified closed-form formula for the optimal portfolio.
result Unified formula reflects risk aversion behaviors and risk-taking behaviors.
Regshock visualizes financial risks to help regulators manage systemic shocks.
problem Managing systemic risks in financial networks.
method Risk-island visualization algorithm and regshock visual exploration approach.
result Demonstrated improved risk management and control capabilities.
Current auto loans converge to super-prime credit despite remaining underwater.
problem Inefficient consumer behavior in auto loans leading to suboptimal credit risk.
method Large-sample statistical hypothesis test on transition matrix between risk bands.
result All current risk bands converge to super-prime credit, despite remaining underwater.
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
We introduce a model of super-exponential financial bubbles with two assets (risky and risk-free), in which rational investors and noise traders co-exist. Rational investors form expectations on the return and risk of a risky asset and maximize their constant relative risk aversion expected utility with respect to thei…
Study examines risk premium convergence rates in risk sharing contracts.
problem Analyzing risk premium convergence rates in risk sharing contracts.
method Examines the limiting behavior of risk premium associated with Pareto optimal risk sharing contracts under general law-invariant risk measures.
result Risk premium convergence rate is typically n1/2, not n. We introduce a strategic behavior in reinsurance bilateral transactions, where agents choose the risk preferences they will appear to have in the transaction. Within a wide class of risk measures, we identify agents' strategic choices to a range of risk aversion coefficients. It is shown that at the strictly beneficial…
Improved risk assessment for UBI using telematics data and AdaBoost.
problem Class imbalance in predicting claims frequency for UBI.
method Cost-sensitive multi-class AdaBoost (SAMME.C2) algorithm.
result SAMME.C2 outperforms other models in handling class imbalances.
Solves equity premium puzzle with time-varying variables.
problem Equity premium puzzle.
method Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model with time-varying subjective time discount factors.
result Calculated coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) is around 4.40.
Plotting a learner's average performance against the number of training samples results in a learning curve. Studying such curves on one or more data sets is a way to get to a better understanding of the generalization properties of this learner. The behavior of learning curves is, however, not very well understood and…
Graph machine learning and Super-App data improve credit risk prediction for financial inclusion.
problem Improving credit risk prediction for financial inclusion.
method Two graph-based experiments using centrality, behavior, and transactionality features.
result Graph features enhance credit risk models, leading to more inclusive financial systems.
Study tail behavior of sum of heavy-tailed risks with copulas.
problem Analyzing the tail behavior of sums of heavy-tailed risks with dependence modeled by copulas.
method Modeling dependence with copulas and analyzing tail asymptotics of sums of heavy-tailed risks.
result Obtained asymptotic expansions for Value-at-Risk of aggregate risk.