arXiv research

We study the problem of learning a good search policy for combinatorial search spaces. We propose retrospective imitation learning, which, after initial training by an expert, improves itself by learning from \textit{retrospective inspections} of its own roll-outs. That is, when the policy eventually reaches a feasible…

Paper proposes an algorithm to optimize CVaR using retrospective approximation and importance sampling.

Retrospective and prospective analysis of Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness research.

We present new methods to estimate causal effects retrospectively from micro data with the assistance of a machine learning ensemble. This approach overcomes two important limitations in conventional methods like regression modeling or matching: (i) ambiguity about the pertinent retrospective counterfactuals and (ii) p…

Study benchmarks methods for learning non-Cartesian k-space trajectories and reconstruction.

Estimates counterfactual outcomes linking observed and unobserved data.

Paper proposes faster adaptation to distribution shifts in online settings.

New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.

Novel approach uses quasi-conformal geometry for OSA classification from cephalometry.

Improved online prediction with guaranteed coverage.

VSCOUT detects anomalies in high-dimensional data using a hybrid VAE approach.

Users form information trails as they browse the web, checkin with a geolocation, rate items, or consume media. A common problem is to predict what a user might do next for the purposes of guidance, recommendation, or prefetching. First-order and higher-order Markov chains have been widely used methods to study such se…

Study analyzes portfolio performance of crypto and traditional assets.

Revisits life insurance surplus models with new technical bases.

The paper develops a method to learn cost-optimal sequential testing policies from retrospective data.

Dynamic promotion optimization for e-commerce platforms within financial constraints.

Two-dimensional transition rates improve life insurance reserve calculations.

New estimator improves policy evaluation in resource allocation RCTs.

Study improves feature acquisition for static settings in AFAPE.

Taking advantage of the recent litterature on exact simulation algorithms (Beskos, Papaspiliopoulos and Roberts) and unbiased estimation of the expectation of certain fonctional integrals (Wagner, Beskos et al. and Fearnhead et al.), we apply an exact simulation based technique for pricing continuous arithmetic average…

Reanalysis datasets combining numerical physics models and limited observations to generate a synthesised estimate of variables in an Earth system, are prone to biases against ground truth. Biases identified with the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol optic…

Drug-drug interactions are preventable causes of medical injuries and often result in doctor and emergency room visits. Computational techniques can be used to predict potential drug-drug interactions. We approach the drug-drug interaction prediction problem as a link prediction problem and present two novel methods fo…

On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company. Academic research has identified some factors, i.e. computed features of the reported d…

Develops a new model-free approach to portfolio theory using rough paths.

Results on $8$-dimensional topological planes are scattered in the literature. It is the aim of the present paper to give a survey of these geometries, in particular of information obtained after the appearance of the treatise Compact Projective Planes or not included in this book. For some theorems new proofs are give…

A new approach RA improves stochastic optimization by executing multiple steps between subsample updates.

The timeliness of detection of a sepsis event in progress is a crucial factor in the outcome for the patient. Machine learning models built from data in electronic health records can be used as an effective tool for improving this timeliness, but so far the potential for clinical implementations has been largely limite…

Develops framework for estimating and improving DTRs with time-varying IV in the presence of unmeasured confounding.

Detection of malware-infected computers and detection of malicious web domains based on their encrypted HTTPS traffic are challenging problems, because only addresses, timestamps, and data volumes are observable. The detection problems are coupled, because infected clients tend to interact with malicious domains. Traff…

In this paper we utilize a survival analysis methodology incorporating Bayesian additive regression trees to account for nonlinear and additive covariate effects. We compare the performance of Bayesian additive regression trees, Cox proportional hazards and random survival forests models for censored survival data, usi…

We present an avatar of the Euler obstruction to foliated structures on certain non-metric surfaces. This adumbrates (at least for the simplest 2D-configurations) that the standard mechanism---to the effect that the devil of algebra sometimes barricades the existence of angelic geometric structures (obstruction theory …

Machine learning detects NASH patients from medical claims data.

Study uses healthcare claims data to identify Covid-19 risk factors without prior selection.

To mitigate potential contagion from future banking crises, the European Commission recently proposed a framework which would provide for the $\textit{bail-in}$ of bank creditors in the event of failure. In this study, we examine this framework retrospectively in the context of failed European banks during the global f…

We present a framework for accelerating a spectrum of machine learning algorithms that require computation of bilinear inverse forms $u^\top A^{-1}u$, where $A$ is a positive definite matrix and $u$ a given vector. Our framework is built on Gauss-type quadrature and easily scales to large, sparse matrices. Further, it …

Sepsis is the leading cause of mortality in the ICU. It is challenging to manage because individual patients respond differently to treatment. Thus, tailoring treatment to the individual patient is essential for the best outcomes. In this paper, we take steps toward this goal by applying a mixture-of-experts framework …

The objective of change-point detection is to discover abrupt property changes lying behind time-series data. In this paper, we present a novel statistical change-point detection algorithm based on non-parametric divergence estimation between time-series samples from two retrospective segments. Our method uses the rela…

Online detection of instantaneous changes in the generative process of a data sequence generally focuses on retrospective inference of such change points without considering their future occurrences. We extend the Bayesian Online Change Point Detection algorithm to also infer the number of time steps until the next cha…

This article attempts to place the emergence of probabilistic numerics as a mathematical-statistical research field within its historical context and to explore how its gradual development can be related both to applications and to a modern formal treatment. We highlight in particular the parallel contributions of Sul'…

We describe a method for parameter estimation in bipartite probabilistic graphical models for joint prediction of clinical conditions from the electronic medical record. The method does not rely on the availability of gold-standard labels, but rather uses noisy labels, called anchors, for learning. We provide a likelih…

Many medical decision-making tasks can be framed as partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, prevailing two-stage approaches that first learn a POMDP and then solve it often fail because the model that best fits the data may not be well suited for planning. We introduce a new optimization objecti…

Current machine learning systems operate, almost exclusively, in a statistical, or model-free mode, which entails severe theoretical limits on their power and performance. Such systems cannot reason about interventions and retrospection and, therefore, cannot serve as the basis for strong AI. To achieve human level int…

Dimension reduction and variable selection are performed routinely in case-control studies, but the literature on the theoretical aspects of the resulting estimates is scarce. We bring our contribution to this literature by studying estimators obtained via L1 penalized likelihood optimization. We show that the optimize…

We investigate several confounding factors in the evaluation of optimization algorithms for deep learning. Primarily, we take a deeper look at how adaptive gradient methods interact with the learning rate schedule, a notoriously difficult-to-tune hyperparameter which has dramatic effects on the convergence and generali…

Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993, inflicting substantial economic, social, and public health repe…

Emergent and unscheduled cardiology admissions from cardiac catheterization laboratory add complexity to the management of Cardiology and in-patient department. In this article, we sought to study the behavior of cardiology admissions from Catheterization laboratory using time series models. Our research involves retro…

We introduce the nonparametric metadata dependent relational (NMDR) model, a Bayesian nonparametric stochastic block model for network data. The NMDR allows the entities associated with each node to have mixed membership in an unbounded collection of latent communities. Learned regression models allow these memberships…

Prospective learning improves AI performance in changing conditions.