A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improved online prediction with guaranteed coverage.
Estimates counterfactual outcomes linking observed and unobserved data.
Paper proposes faster adaptation to distribution shifts in online settings.
Paper proposes an algorithm to optimize CVaR using retrospective approximation and importance sampling.
Drug-drug interactions are preventable causes of medical injuries and often result in doctor and emergency room visits. Computational techniques can be used to predict potential drug-drug interactions. We approach the drug-drug interaction prediction problem as a link prediction problem and present two novel methods fo…
Retrospective and prospective analysis of Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness research.
We present new methods to estimate causal effects retrospectively from micro data with the assistance of a machine learning ensemble. This approach overcomes two important limitations in conventional methods like regression modeling or matching: (i) ambiguity about the pertinent retrospective counterfactuals and (ii) p…
We study the problem of learning a good search policy for combinatorial search spaces. We propose retrospective imitation learning, which, after initial training by an expert, improves itself by learning from \textit{retrospective inspections} of its own roll-outs. That is, when the policy eventually reaches a feasible…
Users form information trails as they browse the web, checkin with a geolocation, rate items, or consume media. A common problem is to predict what a user might do next for the purposes of guidance, recommendation, or prefetching. First-order and higher-order Markov chains have been widely used methods to study such se…
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993, inflicting substantial economic, social, and public health repe…
We introduce the nonparametric metadata dependent relational (NMDR) model, a Bayesian nonparametric stochastic block model for network data. The NMDR allows the entities associated with each node to have mixed membership in an unbounded collection of latent communities. Learned regression models allow these memberships…
VSCOUT detects anomalies in high-dimensional data using a hybrid VAE approach.
The paper develops a method to learn cost-optimal sequential testing policies from retrospective data.
Most accurate predictions are typically obtained by learning machines with complex feature spaces (as e.g. induced by kernels). Unfortunately, such decision rules are hardly accessible to humans and cannot easily be used to gain insights about the application domain. Therefore, one often resorts to linear models in com…
Study benchmarks methods for learning non-Cartesian k-space trajectories and reconstruction.
Paper predicts embryo implantation probability from IVF time-lapse imaging.
Online detection of instantaneous changes in the generative process of a data sequence generally focuses on retrospective inference of such change points without considering their future occurrences. We extend the Bayesian Online Change Point Detection algorithm to also infer the number of time steps until the next cha…
We describe a method for parameter estimation in bipartite probabilistic graphical models for joint prediction of clinical conditions from the electronic medical record. The method does not rely on the availability of gold-standard labels, but rather uses noisy labels, called anchors, for learning. We provide a likelih…
Many medical decision-making tasks can be framed as partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, prevailing two-stage approaches that first learn a POMDP and then solve it often fail because the model that best fits the data may not be well suited for planning. We introduce a new optimization objecti…
Reanalysis datasets combining numerical physics models and limited observations to generate a synthesised estimate of variables in an Earth system, are prone to biases against ground truth. Biases identified with the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol optic…
New distress dictionary improves bankruptcy prediction from disclosure text.
Revisits life insurance surplus models with new technical bases.
Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While frequentist methods have yielded online filtering and prediction techniques, mos…
In this paper we utilize a survival analysis methodology incorporating Bayesian additive regression trees to account for nonlinear and additive covariate effects. We compare the performance of Bayesian additive regression trees, Cox proportional hazards and random survival forests models for censored survival data, usi…
DISTANA improves weather prediction by inferring hidden factors from temperature data.
We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) p…
Dynamic promotion optimization for e-commerce platforms within financial constraints.
DISTANA predicts and denoises spatial wave dynamics.
Study uses healthcare claims data to identify Covid-19 risk factors without prior selection.
Two-dimensional transition rates improve life insurance reserve calculations.
We propose a straightforward extension of our previously proposed log-periodic power law model of the ``anti-bubble'' regime of the USA market since the summer of 2000, in terms of the renormalization group framework to model critical points. Using a previous work by Gluzman and Sornette (2002) on the classification of…
Novel approach uses quasi-conformal geometry for OSA classification from cephalometry.
Study removes bias from chest X-ray embeddings using orthogonalization.
The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not yet been well-established for regression tasks. This paper considers the problem…
Evaluation metrics for prediction models don't fully reflect intervention impact.
New method corrects seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions with probabilistic models.
New methods ensure feature importance rankings are correct with high probability.
While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where identifying unreliable predictions is essential, e.g. precision medicine. Here, we prese…
The timeliness of detection of a sepsis event in progress is a crucial factor in the outcome for the patient. Machine learning models built from data in electronic health records can be used as an effective tool for improving this timeliness, but so far the potential for clinical implementations has been largely limite…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Expe…
On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company. Academic research has identified some factors, i.e. computed features of the reported d…
Develops a new model-free approach to portfolio theory using rough paths.
Navigated 2D multi-slice dynamic Magnetic Resonance (MR) imaging enables high contrast 4D MR imaging during free breathing and provides in-vivo observations for treatment planning and guidance. Navigator slices are vital for retrospective stacking of 2D data slices in this method. However, they also prolong the acquisi…
Results on -dimensional topological planes are scattered in the literature. It is the aim of the present paper to give a survey of these geometries, in particular of information obtained after the appearance of the treatise Compact Projective Planes or not included in this book. For some theorems new proofs are give…
A new approach RA improves stochastic optimization by executing multiple steps between subsample updates.
Study analyzes portfolio performance of crypto and traditional assets.
Machine learning predicts trauma patient mortality risk.