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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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285684112 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for retail markets

Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.

problem Investor-driven information diffusion and its impact on excess comovement.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 4,533 Chinese and 4,517 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2022.
result Retail-driven information diffusion significantly drives excess comovement in China, while institution-driven diffusion is the primary driver in the U.S.

Study shows marketable order routing to wholesalers benefits all traders, leading to lower market depth and price volatility.

problem Determining the preference of retail traders for marketable order routing.
method Two models: one for market makers competing for retail order flow (Bertrand model) and another for price-taking competitive liquidity providers (open exchange model).
result Routing marketable orders to wholesalers is preferred by all traders, leading to mean reverting inventories and lower market depth.

This study examines non-retail trading on Polymarket, revealing unique behavior patterns and structural limitations.

problem Lack of address-level quote-lifecycle data in Polymarket prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis of 13 million order-filled events using DBSCAN clustering on a six-feature fill-side vector.
result Non-retail behavior is uni-modal, contradicting previous archetypal hypotheses.

The Internet is known to have had a powerful impact on on-line retailer strategies in markets characterised by long-tail distribution of sales. Such retailers can exploit the long tail of the market, since they are effectively without physical limit on the number of choices on offer. Here we examine two extensions of t…

2008-08-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Study models growth of unorganized retail in Indian pharma sector amid organized and e-retail competition.

problem Survival strategies of unorganized retailers challenged by organized and e-retailers.
method Field investigation, conjoint analysis, design of experiments, agent-based simulation.
result Unorganized retailers' performance influenced by their own attribute levels and price discounts.

India is ranked as the third most attractive nation for retail investment among emerging markets and many MNCs have been looking for the potential benefits to be taken from it. The development of organized retail has the potential of generating employment, improvement in technology, development of real estate etc. On t…

2012-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.

problem Lack of accurate demand forecasting due to incomplete data.
method Enriched time series data with macroeconomic variables; compared regression and machine learning models.
result Improved accuracy in predicting retail demand through comprehensive data integration.

Study uses causal machine learning to assess coupon campaign impact on retailer sales.

problem Assessing the causal effect of a coupon campaign on retailer sales.
method Causal machine learning algorithms, subgroup analysis, optimal policy learning.
result Only two coupon categories (drugstore and other food) have a significant positive impact on sales.

Supplier learns to price contracts against a learning retailer.

problem Designing data-driven pricing policies for a supplier facing a learning retailer.
method Connecting to non-stationary online learning, proposing dynamic pricing policies for discrete and continuous demand.
result Supplier's pricing policies lead to sublinear regret bounds under various retailer learning policies.

Study reveals investor heterogeneity in Korean equity market cash flows.

problem Investor heterogeneity and its impact on market dynamics.
method Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) on aggregated cash flows.
result Persistence in cash flows varies by investor type, with retail flows showing strong persistence.

This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.

problem Handling uncertainty in energy markets through data markets.
method Modeling a day-ahead retailer energy procurement problem with uncertain demand, integrating forecasting and optimisation, and using differential privacy.
result The value of joint energy and data clearing is highlighted through numerical case studies.

Agent-based market shows herding cycles with square-root price impact.

problem Understanding herding cycles in agent-based markets.
method Agent-based model with 20,000 retail traders interacting with a single institutional agent.
result Agent discovers multi-cycle predatory strategy with 8-11 complete cycles over 2000 trading days.

Retail investors set interest rates for P2P loans based on borrower characteristics.

problem Understanding how individual investors price credit risk in online consumer loan auctions.
method Reverse auction framework, analyzing interest rate variance and borrower characteristics.
result Retail investors exhibit strong predictability in pricing, with gender and marital status influencing interest rates.

Study on stock portfolio concentration among Finnish households and investors.

problem Understanding the concentration of stock portfolios owned by Finnish households and investors.
method Analysis of stock portfolios using Herfindahl-Hirschman index over 20 years.
result High portfolio concentration observed in Finnish retail investors, similar to institutional investors.

Study resolves the Korean LVRP puzzle by showing HVRP exists but is masked by investor heterogeneity and improper intensity normalization.

problem Puzzling Low Volume Return Premium (LVRP) in Korea, contradicting global High Volume Return Premium (HVRP) evidence.
method Used Korean market data (2020-2024) to demonstrate HVRP exists but is masked by investor heterogeneity and improper intensity normalization. Normalized institutional buying intensity by market capitalization rather than trading value.
result Demonstrated a perfect monotonic relationship between highest-conviction institutional buying and positive cumulative abnormal returns, while lowest-intensity trades yield modest returns.

Study examines cryptoasset service providers in Austria, revealing global integration and distinct responses to market shocks.

problem Understanding cryptoasset integration and stress behavior in national economies.
method Directly identified on-chain addresses of Austrian crypto-asset service providers, reconstructing transaction activity across multiple cryptocurrencies.
result Austrian crypto-asset service providers are globally integrated, with distinct responses to market shocks.

Study benchmarks mutual funds in India using DEA, finding efficiency metrics.

problem Benchmark mutual funds in India based on efficiency metrics.
method Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model incorporating risk, cost, return, and information ratio.
result DEA model identifies efficiency frontier and compares results with traditional metrics.

Investor expectations shifted pessimistically during the 2020 stock market crash and recovery.

problem Analyzing changes in investor expectations during the 2020 stock market crash and recovery.
method Surveying Vanguard clients at three points: before, during, and after the crash.
result Investor pessimism increased following the crash, with significant disagreement about future outcomes.

Study shows how sentiment shocks affect equity markets, revealing asymmetries and state-dependent effects.

problem Understanding how sentiment shocks propagate through equity markets and their impact on different investor groups.
method Used four independent proxies with sign-aligned kappa-rho parameters, calibrated a structural model to link sentiment to returns.
result A one standard deviation sentiment shock has a 1.06 basis point impact, with effects amplified over 11.2 months and concentrated in retail-tilted stocks.

Investigates cryptocurrency maturity through collective dynamics and diversification.

problem Determining if cryptocurrency market exhibits similar mathematical properties to equity market.
method Adjusts focus to retail cryptocurrency investors' behavioral patterns, contrasting with equity market.
result Identifies ideal portfolio size and spread across cryptocurrencies, revealing signatures of maturity.

Gradient boosting predicts promotion efficiency using multiple performance indicators.

problem Forecasting promotion efficiency in FMCG retail.
method Gradient boosting applied to six performance indicators for different product groups.
result Models accurately forecast promotion efficiency, optimizing marketing strategies.

Online trading platforms manipulate profits and losses, causing 82% of retail traders to lose money.

problem Manipulation of online trading platforms leading to financial losses for retail traders.
method Independent recording of trade details using REST API responses, comparison with broker reviews.
result 82% of retail traders lose money due to platform technical issues.

This paper analyzes tokenized U.S. Treasuries, revealing patterns and roles in blockchain transactions.

problem Limited empirical analysis of transaction-level behaviors in tokenized U.S. Treasuries.
method Quantitative dissection of U.S. Treasury-backed RWA tokens across multiple chains, introducing a curvature-aware representation learning model for address-level economic role inference.
result Decoded transaction-level patterns reveal the degree of retail participation and distinguish roles in Web3 finance.

Fashion preference is a fuzzy concept that depends on customer taste, prevailing norms in fashion product/style, henceforth used interchangeably, and a customer's perception of utility or fashionability, yet fashion e-retail relies on algorithmically generated search and recommendation systems that process structured d…

2018-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and…

2017-04-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Newly available data on the spatial distribution of retail activities in cities makes it possible to build models formalized at the level of the single retailer. Current models tackle consumer location choices at an aggregate level and the opportunity new data offers for modeling at the retail unit level lacks a theore…

2016-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds Twitter activity correlates with stock volatility but not sentiment.

problem Understanding the impact of social media on stock market dynamics.
method Collected and analyzed tweets from Twitter and Reddit, examining their sentiment and correlation with stock volatility.
result Twitter activity correlates with stock volatility but not sentiment.

Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.

problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.

A variation of the Minority Game has been applied to study the timing of promotional actions at retailers in the fast moving consumer goods market. The underlying hypotheses for this work are that price promotions are more effective when fewer than average competitors do a promotion, and that a promotion strategy can b…

2004-10-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved neural network convergence with causal Bayesian modeling in retail performance.

problem Improving neural network convergence in retail performance models.
method Causal Bayesian neural network implementation, removal of weakest SEM path, Flipout layers, Vadam optimizer.
result Neural network convergence improved with removal of the weakest SEM path.

This study benchmarks AI agents for personalized retail promotions using simulations.

problem Optimizing coupon targeting for sparse customer purchase events.
method Comprehensive simulations of customer shopping behaviors; training RL agents on batch data.
result Contextual bandit and deep RL methods outperform static policies in sparse reward environments.

Model predicts internal fraud in retail banking is cyclical and influenced by corruption.

problem Predicting and mitigating internal fraud losses in retail banking.
method Developed a dynamic model considering internal factors and macroeconomic indicators.
result Internal fraud losses are pro-cyclical and positively affected by corruption perceptions.