Study optimizes CANN for actuarial tasks using RSM.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural networks in actuarial science.
method Factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM).
result Reduced hyperparameter optimization from 288 to 188, achieving near-optimal performance.
We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking several response surfaces. Namely, given L≥2 response surfaces over a continuous input space X, the aim is to efficiently find the index of the minimal response across the entire X. The response surfaces are not known and ha…
Local GP approach improves simulation efficiency for large datasets.
problem High computational cost of traditional Gaussian processes for large-scale simulations.
method Hybridizes global and local GP approximations with strategic placement of inducing points.
result Local inducing points enhance accuracy and computational efficiency.
An increasing array of biomedical and computer vision applications requires the predictive modeling of complex data, for example images and shapes. The main challenge when predicting such objects lies in the fact that they do not comply to the assumptions of Euclidean geometry. Rather, they occupy non-linear spaces, a.…
E2Tree explains random forest models in regression tasks.
problem Lack of transparency in random forest models.
method E2Tree extends random forest to regression by explaining model predictions through graphical representation and dissimilarity measures.
result E2Tree provides a transparent explanation of random forest models in regression tasks.
New method improves stochastic kriging for high-dimensional simulations.
problem High-dimensional simulation models require prohibitive sample sizes and computational costs.
method Tensor Markov kernels and sparse grid experimental designs.
result Sample complexity grows only slightly with dimensionality, improving accuracy and efficiency.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
Innovative ball bearing converts rotary to reciprocating motion.
problem Designing efficient motion conversion mechanisms.
method Closed curve envelopment theory and diameter-stroke ratio concept.
result Compact and vibration-reduced ball bearing design.
Researchers study how teachers' advising relationships influence their perceptions of satisfaction and students, not policy influence.
problem Understanding the relationship between teachers' advising relationships and their perceptions of satisfaction and students.
method Proposed a novel joint model of network and item responses (JNIRM) with correlated latent variables.
result Teachers' advising relationships contribute more to satisfaction and students than to influence over educational policies.
In this paper, we propose deep learning algorithms for ranking response surfaces, with applications to optimal stopping problems in financial mathematics. The problem of ranking response surfaces is motivated by estimating optimal feedback policy maps in stochastic control problems, aiming to efficiently find the index…
The paper enhances preference learning by incorporating response time data.
problem Lack of temporal information in user decision-making for reward model learning.
method Integrates response time alongside binary choice data using the EZ model and Neyman-orthogonal loss functions.
result Response time-augmented approach reduces error rates from exponential to polynomial scaling, improving sample efficiency.
NASirt automates CNN architecture design for spectral data.
problem Designing optimal neural architectures for complex data.
method Neural Architecture Search (NAS) with Item Response Theory (IRT) for instance-level complexity.
result NASirt achieves high accuracy (97.40%) on spectral datasets.
New framework for regression trees with multivariate response and dynamic mean vectors.
problem Characterizing and implementing regression trees for multivariate responses.
method High dimensional model with dynamic mean vectors over multi-dimensional change axes.
result Optimal rate of convergence and asymptotic valid confidence intervals for change points.
Estimates impulse response functions using machine learning in time series data.
problem Estimating causal effects of discrete treatments over time with flexible models.
method Double/debiased machine learning for nonparametric time series data.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for impulse response functions.
The implied volatility surface (IVS) is a fundamental building block in computational finance. We provide a survey of methodologies for constructing such surfaces. We also discuss various topics which can influence the successful construction of IVS in practice: arbitrage-free conditions in both strike and time, how to…
A hybrid method combines model-based and data-driven approaches for multiscale constitutive responses.
problem High computational costs and inaccuracies in nonlinear multiscale methods.
method Hybrid methodology combining model-based constitutive laws, data-driven corrections, and computational multiscale approaches.
result Model-data-driven approach improves macroscale simulations with similar accuracy and computational cost.
ChatGPT's medical response accuracy is 56%, but studies vary widely.
problem Lack of standard guidelines for evaluating ChatGPT's performance in medicine.
method Systematic review and meta-analysis of 17 studies.
result ChatGPT's overall integrated accuracy in medical queries is 56%.
Item response theory (IRT) models for categorical response data are widely used in the analysis of educational data, computerized adaptive testing, and psychological surveys. However, most IRT models rely on both the assumption that categories are strictly ordered and the assumption that this ordering is known a priori…
In many countries information on expectations collected through consumer confidence surveys are used in macroeconomic policy formulation. Unfortunately, before doing so, the consistency of responses is often not taken into account, leading to biases creeping in and affecting the reliability of the indices hence created…
We introduce instancewise feature selection as a methodology for model interpretation. Our method is based on learning a function to extract a subset of features that are most informative for each given example. This feature selector is trained to maximize the mutual information between selected features and the respon…
Reduces high granularity and dimensionality in hierarchical categorical variables.
problem Overfitting and estimation issues in predictive models due to high granularity and dimensionality.
method Entity embedding and top-down clustering algorithm to reduce granularity and dimensionality.
result The reduced hierarchy improves model fit and complexity balance.
Differentially private geodesic regression for non-Euclidean data.
problem Protecting sensitive data on non-linear spaces like manifolds.
method K-Norm Gradient (KNG) mechanism for Riemannian manifolds.
result Theoretical bounds for sensitivity of geodesic regression parameters.
RLGP model improves robustness and accuracy for discontinuous response surfaces.
problem Challenges in modeling abrupt jumps and discontinuities in response surfaces.
method Integrates adaptive nearest-neighbor selection with robustification mechanism.
result Consistently delivers high predictive accuracy and robustness in higher dimensions.
A family of parsimonious Gaussian cluster-weighted models is presented. This family concerns a multivariate extension to cluster-weighted modelling that can account for correlations between multivariate responses. Parsimony is attained by constraining parts of an eigen-decomposition imposed on the component covariance …
New method models covariates and responses without parametric assumptions using manifold learning.
problem Losing explanatory power for responses in standard factor models applied to covariates alone.
method Anisotropic diffusion maps for learning low-dimensional embeddings.
result Kalman filtering in diffusion-map coordinates improves joint covariate-response prediction.
Study explores kinematics of surfaces under metric restrictions.
problem Understanding the kinematics of surfaces under metric constraints.
method Analyzed three energy contents: stretching, drilling, and bending.
result Metric restrictions can hinder the elastic response of a shell.
Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.
problem Estimating scalar responses from functional predictors in an ill-posed inverse problem.
method Functional partial least squares (PLS) estimator with adaptive early stopping and new tests.
result PLS attains nearly minimax-optimal convergence rates and detects local alternatives.
The inputs of deep neural network (DNN) from real-world data usually come with uncertainties. Yet, it is challenging to propagate the uncertainty in the input features to the DNN predictions at a low computational cost. This work employs a gradient-based subspace method and response surface technique to accelerate the …
A new framework interprets machine learning models using Gaussian processes.
problem Interpreting complex machine learning models.
method Gaussian process metamodeling to capture response surfaces.
result Maximizing likelihood function for variable importance.
Bayesian optimal design of experiments (BODE) has been successful in acquiring information about a quantity of interest (QoI) which depends on a black-box function. BODE is characterized by sequentially querying the function at specific designs selected by an infill-sampling criterion. However, most current BODE method…
Aims to optimize complex multivariate systems with constraints.
problem Optimizing force-field systems in physics with large-scale simulations.
method Combines machine learning and experimental design to find feasible input combinations.
result Locates multiple good regions in the input space.
In this paper we present a nonparametric method for extending functional regression methodology to the situation where more than one functional covariate is used to predict a functional response. Borrowing the idea from Kadri et al. (2010a), the method, which support mixed discrete and continuous explanatory variables,…
Extracts invariant features to predict Y without confounding by Z, using conditional independence and optimal transport.
problem Extracting invariant features to predict Y without confounding by Z, a response variable influenced by unknown confounders Z.
method Develops a methodology penalizing statistical dependence between feature and confounders conditioned on Y, using the Optimal Transport Barycenter Problem.
result The method extracts invariant features in the Gaussian case, equivalent to penalizing dependence between feature and conditional random variable Z_Y.
Recent advances in smart cities applications enforce security threads such as node replication attacks. Such attack is take place when the attacker plants a replicated network node within the network. Vehicular Ad hoc networks are connecting sensors that have limited resources and required the response time to be as lo…
Extends multivariate regression for tensor-variate data, identifying brain regions and facial characteristics.
problem Challenges in fitting regression models with multivariate responses and covariates.
method Low-rank tensor formats on regression coefficients and tensor-variate normal distribution for errors.
result Maximum likelihood estimators for tensor-on-tensor regression via block-relaxation algorithms.
New Bayesian method for sparse multidimensional item response theory.
problem Sparse interpretable explanations for questionnaire data.
method Bayesian EM algorithm for sparse factor loadings.
result Reliable recovery of factor dimensionality and latent structure.
Many modern data sets are sampled with error from complex high-dimensional surfaces. Methods such as tensor product splines or Gaussian processes are effective/well suited for characterizing a surface in two or three dimensions but may suffer from difficulties when representing higher dimensional surfaces. Motivated by…
Estimates price sensitivity from transaction data using a novel odds ratio method.
problem Estimate price sensitivity from transaction-level data with partially observed treatment assignments.
method Recursive partitioning procedure with adversarial imputation for robust estimation.
result Validated on synthetic data and applied to three case studies, demonstrating heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Mean Field Variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is its (sometimes severe) underestimates of the uncertainty of model variables and lack of information about model variable covariance.…
Paper uses NLP and IRT to score ESG factors from news articles.
problem Lack of precise ESG metrics in finance.
method Combines NLP and IRT models on ESG-related news data.
result Method offers more precise ESG metrics with temporal dynamics.
Paper introduces SDM for detecting LLM hallucinations, improving on entropy tests.
problem Challenges of Large Language Models (LLMs) with non-factual, nonsensical responses.
method Joint clustering on sentence embeddings to measure semantic divergence between prompts and responses.
result SDM framework detects deeper form of arbitrariness in LLM responses.
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
Paper proposes a novel method to assess treatment effect estimators using cross-validation.
problem Lack of ground truth to objectively assess treatment effect estimators in RCTs.
method Cross-validation-like methodology combining noisy difference-of-means estimate and aggregation across RCTs.
result Aggressive downweighting or truncation of large values reduces variance and improves treatment effect estimation.
New method uses neural networks to predict extreme wildfires, improving accuracy over traditional models.
problem Predicting extreme wildfires using complex, non-linear relationships.
method Partially-interpretable neural networks for extreme quantile regression.
result Significant improvement in predictive performance over traditional methods.
Method integrates functional data into neural networks for better interpretability.
problem Integrating functional data into neural networks for improved interpretability.
method Integrates functional data into deep neural networks, visualizes dynamic weights.
result Model performs well in prediction and recovery of functional weights.
We derive an analytic formula for the hydrodynamic Green function and the Robin function on every orientable surface admitting a hydrodynamic Killing vector field. Closed-form expressions are provided for all fourteen canonical Riemann surfaces, covering both compact and non-compact cases; the formulae satisfy the slip…
New framework reveals limits of flexible, periodic thin surfaces.
problem Understanding the mechanical behavior of thin, periodic surfaces.
method Developed a duality between surface rotations and in-plane stresses.
result Exactly three out of six possible strain states are isometries.
Flexible models predict US Census survey response rates.
problem Predicting survey response rates in the US Census Bureau.
method Nonparametric additive models with structured interactions using ℓ0-based penalization.
result Models lead to predictions comparable to black-box methods but are interpretable.