Paper introduces a new risk measure for multivariate residual estimation.
problem Quantifying residual estimation risk in complex financial models.
method Developed a multivariate framework for residual estimation risk, defined using various risk measures, and proposed a back-testing criterion.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the new measure through back-testing on retail credit portfolios.
Optimal a priori estimates are derived for the population risk, also known as the generalization error, of a regularized residual network model. An important part of the regularized model is the usage of a new path norm, called the weighted path norm, as the regularization term. The weighted path norm treats the skip c…
Proposes RaT to mitigate bias in student-teacher estimation.
problem Systematic bias in teacher's predictions propagates to student model.
method Uses teacher to estimate residuals in student's predictions.
result RaT method reduces teacher bias effect and achieves optimal rate.
The paper analyzes how to combine self-protection and self-insurance for risk reduction.
problem Combining self-protection and self-insurance for risk reduction when market insurance is absent.
method The approach uses Value-at-Risk and Tail Value-at-Risk to evaluate residual risk and solves the problem using isoquant geometry based on marginal-balance curves.
result The analysis identifies the conditions under which self-protection and self-insurance behave as substitutes or complements.
Method to decompose portfolio performance into FX, interest rate, carry, and residual market risks.
problem Understanding the sources of portfolio performance.
method Decomposition of portfolio PnL into four components.
result Demonstrated usefulness of the method through fund performance analysis.
Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
problem Assessing earthquake insurance risk using spatio-temporal point process models.
method Extended Voronoi residuals and created simulation-based approach.
result Proposed formula for country-wide minimum capital test.
Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
problem Dynamic estimation of extreme VaR in financial time series.
method AR-GARCH filtering followed by a bias-reduced extreme value estimator.
result GARCH-UGH estimates are more accurate than conventional methods.
Machine learning helps estimate risk premiums of stocks without knowing their factors.
problem Estimate risk premiums of stocks without knowing their underlying factors.
method Used elastic-net machine learning to project stock returns onto peers and construct replicate portfolios.
result Unique stocks have higher SARP and excess returns than ubiquitous stocks.
The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.
problem Analyzing risk metrics and entropies for unimodal, symmetric distributions with limited information.
method Develops lower and upper bounds for worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, symmetric distributions with known mean and variance.
result Sharp upper bounds for distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for symmetric distributions.
Study Transformer layers under cross-entropy training using mean field control.
problem Understanding the behavior of Transformer layers in cross-entropy training.
method Continuous-depth mean field control analysis, treating depth as time and layer parameters as controls.
result Derivation of a Pontryagin condition for the limiting population problem, involving the softmax residual.
ConvResNets approximate Besov functions and classify on low-dimensional manifolds.
problem Lack of statistical theories for deep learning on high-dimensional data.
method Exploits low-dimensional geometric structures of real-world data sets using ConvResNets.
result ConvResNets can approximate Besov functions and learn classifiers with optimal excess risk.
The paper analyzes worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy under partial information.
problem Analyzing worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy with limited information.
method General distributions, partial information (mean and variance), various entropies and risk measures.
result Provides worst-case results for distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy.
New method forecasts systemic risk with improved precision.
problem Improving the estimation of systemic risk measures.
method De-volatilizing observations and using extreme value theory for forecasting.
result Valid MES forecasts with good coverage in simulations and empirical applications.
This project demonstrated a methodology to estimating cooperate credibility with a Natural Language Processing approach. As cooperate transparency impacts both the credibility and possible future earnings of the firm, it is an important factor to be considered by banks and investors on risk assessments of listed firms.…
This paper improves the Diversification Quotient (DQ) for better risk management.
problem Improving portfolio diversification measurement.
method Empirical estimation of DQ using VaR and ES, with asymptotic properties verified.
result Empirical DQ estimators are more robust and have better asymptotic properties.
This paper examines foreign exchange risk premia from simple univariate regressions to the state-space method. The adjusted traditional regressions properly figure out the existence and time-evolving property of the risk premia. Successively, the state-space estimations overall are quite rationally competent in examini…
The paper analyzes how open-end fund sales affect prices and returns.
problem How open-end fund sales impact prices and returns.
method Continuous-time market-clearing model to derive expected-return restrictions.
result Forced-sale pressure predicts actual fund selling and positive returns.
Paper proposes a deep hedging method for Bermudan swaptions to manage residual profit and loss.
problem Real-world market conditions differ from ideal assumptions in traditional hedging methods, leading to residual profit and loss.
method Deep hedging framework applied to Bermudan swaptions, allowing flexible risk measures and hedge strategies.
result Effective residual profit and loss management demonstrated through numerical analysis.
The thesis evaluates and compares extreme mixture models in finance and insurance.
problem Estimating tail risk measures in finance and insurance.
method Extreme mixture models and methods, including kernel density estimation and GARCH preprocessing.
result Kernel density estimation-based models do not outperform others in tail risk estimation.
New method for insurance valuation combining hedging and risk minimization.
problem Current insurance valuation methods do not reflect regulatory risk measures.
method Two-step hedging procedure using generalised regression.
result The method produces portfolios neutral to risk measures like VaR or expectiles.
Risk estimation is at the core of many learning systems. The importance of this problem has motivated researchers to propose different schemes, such as cross validation, generalized cross validation, and Bootstrap. The theoretical properties of such estimates have been extensively studied in the low-dimensional setting…
Novel graph theory for neural networks improves understanding of their structure and performance.
problem Understanding the structural benefits and generalization power of neural networks.
method Developed a novel graph theoretical formulation and extended error analysis for neural networks.
result Similar a priori estimates can be obtained for neural networks under certain conditions, independent of input dimension.
Weather is a key production factor in agricultural crop production and at the same time the most significant and least controllable source of peril in agriculture. These effects of weather on agricultural crop production have triggered a widespread support for weather derivatives as a means of mitigating the risk assoc…
Improved ResNets and DenseNets models for better feature reuse.
problem Diminishing feature reuse in ResNets and DenseNets.
method ResNEsts and DenseNEsts are block-based DNN models with improved representation guarantees.
result Wide ResNEsts with bottleneck blocks can guarantee desirable training properties.
This paper assesses tail risk and systemic risk in cryptocurrencies using expectiles and MES.
problem Quantifying tail risk and systemic risk in cryptocurrencies.
method The study uses expectiles and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) to assess tail risk and systemic risk of cryptocurrencies.
result The expectile-based approach and MES provide a dynamic method to evaluate the impact of single assets on systemic risk.
RR-GNN improves GNN prediction intervals by accounting for graph heteroscedasticity and structural biases.
problem Uncertainty quantification in GNNs for high-stakes domains.
method Graph-Structured Mondrian CP, Residual-Adaptive Nonconformity Scores, Cross-Training Protocol.
result Improved efficiency and no loss of coverage compared to CP baselines.
New model predicts financial transaction durations using quantiles.
problem Modeling financial transaction durations using traditional mean duration.
method Proposes a new autoregressive conditional duration model based on log-symmetric distributions reparametrized by quantiles.
result Proposed model allows for modeling different percentiles of financial transaction durations.
The SV-GARCH-EVT model improves risk assessment in financial markets.
problem Inaccurate risk assessment in financial markets due to fat-tailed and leverage effects.
method Enhanced SV model with EVT for tail distribution, MCMC for parameter estimation.
result SV-EVT models outperform other models in backtesting and out-of-sample analysis.
The paper analyzes the risk of bagging regularized M-estimators under proportional asymptotics.
problem Characterizing the risk of ensemble estimators trained with subsamples and regularizers.
method Developed a consistent estimator for the risk of ensemble estimators under proportional asymptotics.
result Optimal subsample size k⋆ tends to be in the overparameterized regime for the full-ensemble estimator. A new algorithm improves stochastic linear bandit performance using residual bootstrap.
problem Improving performance in stochastic linear bandit problems.
method Residual bootstrap exploration to estimate mean reward and pull the arm with the highest estimate.
result Proposed algorithm exttt{LinReBoot} achieves high-probability sub-linear regret under mild conditions.
A debiasing method improves nonparametric regression's statistical properties.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for modern nonparametric regression methods.
method Model-free debiasing method incorporating a correction term.
result Debiased estimator satisfies pointwise and uniform risk convergence, asymptotic normality.
RestoreAI predicts landmine risk from patterns, improving clearance efficiency.
problem Predicting landmine risk from spatial patterns to enhance clearance efficiency.
method RestoreAI uses landmine patterns for risk prediction, implementing three deminers: linear, curved, and Bayesian.
result RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency, achieving a 14.37 percentage point increase in cleared landmines per timestep.
Develops efficient inference for noise heterogeneity in machine learning models.
problem Downstream procedures based on residuals can be biased in additive noise models.
method Semiparametrically efficient inference using a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator.
result Constructs tests and confidence intervals for residual independence and goodness of fit.
Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforci…
New insights into ridge regression with correlated data, improving risk prediction.
problem Understanding and predicting risk in ridge regression with correlated samples.
method Random matrix theory and free probability for asymptotic analysis; modified GCV estimator (CorrGCV) for unbiased prediction.
result GCV estimator fails for out-of-sample risk with correlated data; CorrGCV provides an unbiased estimator.
The aim of our work is to propose a natural framework to account for all the empirically known properties of the multivariate distribution of stock returns. We define and study a "nested factor model", where the linear factors part is standard, but where the log-volatility of the linear factors and of the residuals are…
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
problem Modeling high-frequency financial data with complex residual distributions.
method Introduces self and mutually exciting point process with discretely Markovian dynamics.
result Flexible residual distributions improve intensity modeling and high-frequency data estimation.
Study analyzes crypto asset risk exposures using a divide-and-conquer approach.
problem Lack of high-frequency macro-financial proxies for estimating risk.
method Two-stage divide-and-conquer approach: first stage estimates idiosyncratic and market risk, second stage identifies latent economy-wide factors.
result Heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk across crypto assets.
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
Paper presents a deep learning method for estimating asset return precision matrices in noisy financial markets.
problem Estimating precision matrices of asset returns in low signal-to-noise ratio environments.
method Non-linear factor model within deep learning framework, consistent estimator with error covariance estimator.
result Superior accuracy in simulations and empirical data.
Study tests how U.S. equity prices align with global asset frequencies using financial variables.
problem Testing whether U.S. equity prices align with global asset frequencies using financial variables.
method Examines SPX and RUT gaps, uses OIS-based funding, volatility, trading-friction, financial-condition variables, and residual information.
result Gains in fit survive broad-dollar neutralization, alternative blocks, PCA, residualization, and nested horizon selection, supporting reduced-form P-Q alignment.
Deep learning method for fair derivative pricing.
problem Fair pricing of financial derivatives with hedging.
method Deep reinforcement learning, modified equal risk pricing framework.
result Derivative prices are arbitrage-free and more tractable.
This paper improves financial derivative pricing by incorporating multiple hedging instruments.
problem Valuation of financial derivatives with multiple hedging instruments.
method Deep hedging algorithm and reinforcement learning to solve global hedging problems.
result Including options as hedging instruments can significantly decrease equal risk prices and market incompleteness.
Paper studies M-estimators with derivatives and residual distribution for robust adaptive tuning.
problem Tackles robustness and adaptive tuning of M-estimators with heavy-tailed noise.
method Provides formulae for derivatives, characterizes residual distribution, proposes adaptive criterion.
result Characterizes distribution of residuals and proposes adaptive criterion as out-of-sample error proxy.
Neural Networks (NNs) have been extensively used for a wide spectrum of real-world regression tasks, where the goal is to predict a numerical outcome such as revenue, effectiveness, or a quantitative result. In many such tasks, the point prediction is not enough: the uncertainty (i.e. risk or confidence) of that predic…
The paper proposes a method to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using pretraining strategies.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in the presence of many covariates.
method The approach leverages prognostic factors that also predict treatment effect heterogeneity, using the R-learner framework.
result The proposed method improves estimation accuracy and power for detecting treatment effect heterogeneity.
ResMem improves model generalization by explicitly memorizing residuals.
problem Improving model generalization in neural networks.
method ResMem algorithm that augments a model with a k-nearest neighbor based regressor fitted to residuals.
result ResMem consistently improves test set generalization across various benchmarks.