A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Two methods are proposed to filter correlations in DCC-GARCH residuals for foreign exchange rates.
Alpha-based performance evaluation may fail to capture correlated residuals due to model errors. This paper proposes using the Generalized Information Ratio (GIR) to measure performance under misspecified benchmarks. Motivated by the theoretical link between abnormal returns and residual covariance matrix, GIR is deriv…
Researchers identify critical protein residues using advanced graph theory.
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
The paper establishes principles for initializing and designing GNNs with ReLU activations to avoid oversmoothing and correlation collapse.
Graph neural networks often assume vertex labels are independent, but we show this is rarely true and propose a method to improve predictions.
Variational auto-encoders (VAEs) are a popular and powerful deep generative model. Previous works on VAEs have assumed a factorized likelihood model, whereby the output uncertainty of each pixel is assumed to be independent. This approximation is clearly limited as demonstrated by observing a residual image from a VAE …
New method for accurate permutation inference in CCA.
Cross validation residuals are well known for the ordinary least squares model. Here leave-M-out cross validation is extended to generalised least squares. The relationship between cross validation residuals and Cook's distance is demonstrated, in terms of an approximation to the difference in the generalised residual …
In general, image restoration involves mapping from low quality images to their high-quality counterparts. Such optimal mapping is usually non-linear and learnable by machine learning. Recently, deep convolutional neural networks have proven promising for such learning processing. It is desirable for an image processin…
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant…
PROBE optimizes best-arm identification with cheap proxies, improving sample complexity.
Predicting diagnoses from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is an important medical application of multi-label learning. We propose a convolutional residual model for multi-label classification from doctor notes in EHR data. A given patient may have multiple diagnoses, and therefore multi-label learning is required. We …
Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise, Sigma = (sigma^2)*I. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situa…
MLP residual networks implement a selective coarse-graining procedure governed by the spectral structure of the input distribution.
Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
Residual Network (ResNet) is the state-of-the-art architecture that realizes successful training of really deep neural network. It is also known that good weight initialization of neural network avoids problem of vanishing/exploding gradients. In this paper, simplified models of ResNets are analyzed. We argue that good…
Improved multivariate conformal prediction by standardizing residuals.
CCP clusters correlated features and projects them to 1D for efficient dimensionality reduction.
Reducing volatility proxy improves apparent market correlation dynamics.
New framework assesses deep learning models for spatio-temporal data with missing data.
Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situation where the data v…
Framework calculates positional influence in causal residual Transformers.
Aleatoric uncertainty is an intrinsic property of ill-posed inverse and imaging problems. Its quantification is vital for assessing the reliability of relevant point estimates. In this paper, we propose an efficient framework for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty for deep residual learning and showcase its significant …
We find a novel correlation structure in the residual noise of stock market returns that is remarkably linked to the composition and stability of the top few significant factors driving the returns, and moreover indicates that the noise band is composed of multiple subbands that do not fully mix. Our findings allow us …
New GP kernel handles mixed-categorical data, improving model accuracy.
Transformers improve Alzheimer's disease progression prediction by accounting for irregular biomarker histories.
This paper proposes a deep speech enhancement method which exploits the high potential of residual connections in a wide neural network architecture, a topology known as Wide Residual Network. This is supported on single dimensional convolutions computed alongside the time domain, which is a powerful approach to proces…
Paper forecasts stock correlations using a hybrid model combining graph neural networks and transformers.
Study uses regression and ML for COVID-19 mortality forecasting.
Predicting the price correlation of two assets for future time periods is important in portfolio optimization. We apply LSTM recurrent neural networks (RNN) in predicting the stock price correlation coefficient of two individual stocks. RNNs are competent in understanding temporal dependencies. The use of LSTM cells fu…
TabPFN's internal geometry topology correlates with dataset reliability.
This paper proposes a multi-channel image reconstruction method, named DeepcomplexMRI, to accelerate parallel MR imaging with residual complex convolutional neural network. Different from most existing works which rely on the utilization of the coil sensitivities or prior information of predefined transforms, Deepcompl…
Motivation. Protein contact map describes the pairwise spatial and functional relationship of residues in a protein and contains key information for protein 3D structure prediction. Although studied extensively, it remains very challenging to predict contact map using only sequence information. Most existing methods pr…
In many applications of supervised learning, multiple classification or regression outputs have to be predicted jointly. We consider several extensions of gradient boosting to address such problems. We first propose a straightforward adaptation of gradient boosting exploiting multiple output regression trees as base le…
We propose a penalized orthogonal-components regression (POCRE) for large p small n data. Orthogonal components are sequentially constructed to maximize, upon standardization, their correlation to the response residuals. A new penalization framework, implemented via empirical Bayes thresholding, is presented to effecti…
The aim of our work is to propose a natural framework to account for all the empirically known properties of the multivariate distribution of stock returns. We define and study a "nested factor model", where the linear factors part is standard, but where the log-volatility of the linear factors and of the residuals are…
STRAPSim measures ETF portfolio similarity better than existing methods.
New insights into ridge regression with correlated data, improving risk prediction.
In dealing with high-dimensional data sets, factor models are often useful for dimension reduction. The estimation of factor models has been actively studied in various fields. In the first part of this paper, we present a new approach to estimate high-dimensional factor models, using the empirical spectral density of …
The paper introduces a method to model error correlations in multivariate time series forecasting.
The manipulation of LIBOR by a group of banks became one of the major blows to the remaining confidence in financial industry. Yet, despite an enormous amount of popular literature on the subject, rigorous time-series studies are few. In my paper, I discuss the following hypothesis. Namely, if we should assume for a st…
A visualization aids in comparing regression models by highlighting errors and correlations.
Paper introduces a new cost function to improve deep learning model generalization.
In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to IIP (indices of industrial production) data for Japan. Statistical noise arising from finiteness of the time series data is carefully removed by making use of…
The purpose of this paper is introducing rigorous methods and formulas for bilateral counterparty risk credit valuation adjustments (CVA's) on interest-rate portfolios. In doing so, we summarize the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, as de…
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In our leading example, we model CATE by interacting the base treatment variable w…