New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
problem Allocating costs of operating reserves and transmission efficiently.
method Causation-based framework using contingency-constrained scheduling models.
result More comprehensive and efficient cost-reflective market operations.
Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to fit a predictor of the best reserve price. This problem is delicate - the struct…
Optimizes reserve prices for first-price auctions to maximize revenue.
problem Optimizing reserve prices for first-price auctions in display advertising.
method Gradient-based algorithm to adaptively update and optimize reserve prices based on bidder responsiveness to experimental shocks.
result Revenue optimization in first-price auctions can be decomposed into demand and bidding components, and techniques are introduced to reduce variance of each.
Improved pricing method for illiquid assets using Lambert function.
problem Inaccurate pricing of illiquid assets using traditional methods.
method Deterministic decomposition of reservation price using Lambert function; improved Monte Carlo method (LMC).
result Improved accuracy in pricing illiquid assets through LMC method.
Optimizes e-commerce traffic sales by incorporating hidden costs into auction mechanisms.
problem Hidden costs from unexpected advertising items in search results.
method Dynamic reserve price design with distributed solving algorithm.
result Ensures a balanced relationship between revenue and user experience.
Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.
problem Limited information on central bank reserve compositions hinders analysis.
method Hidden Markov Model relating portfolio valuation to exchange rates.
result China's reserve composition likely matches global average, while Singapore holds fewer US dollars.
Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.
problem Uncertainty in oil and gas reserves poses accounting challenges for investors.
method Empirical analysis using archival data and multifactor framework.
result Changes in reserves and their components are associated with share returns, but insignificantly due to oil price and longitudinal effects. Quality of disclosures positively impacts share returns.
New model bridges pricing and reserving for insurance claims.
problem Incomplete claim data due to reporting and settlement delays.
method Develops an occurrence and development model to estimate both claims and premiums.
result Effective resolution of pricing and reserving inconsistencies.
Tick-by-tick liquidity provision aims to maximize fees and reserves.
problem Maximizing fees and reserves in concentrated liquidity.
method Convex optimization for tick-level liquidity provision.
result Concentrating liquidity around current price is not always best.
Researchers solved a model of an exhaustible resource with stochastic discoveries.
problem Optimal exploration of an exhaustible resource with uncertain discoveries.
method Impulse control and Poisson process of new discoveries.
result A frontier of critical levels of proven reserves exists, above which exploration is stopped.
In this paper, we study the non-stationary online second price auction problem. We assume that the seller is selling the same type of items in T rounds by the second price auction, and she can set the reserve price in each round. In each round, the bidders draw their private values from a joint distribution unknown t…
This paper studies a finite-fuel two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem under regime switching that is motivated by the optimal irreversible extraction problem of an exhaustible commodity. A company extracts a natural resource from a reserve with finite capacity, and sells it in the market at a …
We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to pri…
We examine the problem of dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure. The reserver requires to hedge risk in a time-consistent manner by trading in baskets of currencies. We show that reserving portfolios in multiple currencies V are time-consistent when (and only…
We study revenue optimization learning algorithms for repeated second-price auctions with reserve where a seller interacts with multiple strategic bidders each of which holds a fixed private valuation for a good and seeks to maximize his expected future cumulative discounted surplus. We propose a novel algorithm that h…
Motivated by pricing in ad exchange markets, we consider the problem of robust learning of reserve prices against strategic buyers in repeated contextual second-price auctions. Buyers' valuations for an item depend on the context that describes the item. However, the seller is not aware of the relationship between the …
Optimizes insurance pricing to minimize ruin probability under various claim dependencies.
problem Determining optimal insurance premiums in the presence of dependencies between claim occurrences.
method Analyzes both independent and dependent claim processes, considering single and multiple risks.
result Optimal insurance premiums depend on initial reserve and claim dependencies.
Develops a support-aware framework for reserve-policy selection in advertising markets.
problem Log-based reserve-price evaluation risks weak support and subgroup harm.
method Support-aware offline decision framework converting logged evidence into certified policies.
result Preserves the best gate-passing policy while eliminating only policies with certified regret.
We consider infinite dimensional optimization problems motivated by the financial model called Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Using probabilistic and functional analytic tools, we provide a dual characterization of the super-replication cost. Then, we show the existence of optimal strategies for investors maximizing their e…
In this paper we consider the pricing of variable annuities (VAs) with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits. We consider two pricing approaches, the classical risk-neutral approach and the benchmark approach, and we examine the associated static and optimal behaviors of both the investor and insurer. The first model …
QubitSwap improves DEX efficiency by reducing impermanent loss and slippage.
problem Challenges in decentralised exchanges, especially impermanent loss and slippage.
method Hybrid approach integrating external oracle price with internal pool dynamics, parameterized by z. result Reduction in impermanent loss and slippage compared to traditional DEX frameworks.
This paper optimizes brokerage contracts for multiple clients trading a single asset.
problem Optimizing brokerage contracts for multiple clients trading a single asset.
method Endogenously determines clients' reservation values and strategically chooses clients. Characterizes optimal portfolios computationally.
result Characterizes optimal portfolios of clients and their profits, showing dependence on price impact coefficients.
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
problem Ensuring safety and accountability for AI actions with varying side effects.
method Developed Actuarial Action Interface (AAI) and Authority Frontier to price and gate AI actions.
result Found common refusal and release patterns across domains, with varying required reserve capital.
COAD maximizes online auction revenue by quantifying uncertainty without known distributions.
problem Designing incentive-compatible mechanisms for online auctions with unknown bidder values and uncertain future participants.
method COAD uses distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques and integrates machine learning methods to predict bidder values while ensuring revenue guarantees.
result COAD maximizes revenue in online auctions through bidder-specific reserve prices based on lower confidence bounds of valuations.
We consider a dynamic pricing problem for repeated contextual second-price auctions with multiple strategic buyers who aim to maximize their long-term time discounted utility. The seller has limited information on buyers' overall demand curves which depends on a non-parametric market-noise distribution, and buyers may …
The paper models SaaS products as insurance, offering new pricing tools.
problem Modeling capped-usage SaaS products with insurance principles.
method Frequency-severity decomposition, premium calculation, Monte Carlo simulations.
result SaaS pricing can be analyzed using insurance actuarial methods.
This paper improves bidding price prediction for ancillary services markets, boosting revenues.
problem Volatility in renewable energy sources affects grid stability and revenue optimization.
method Machine learning models (SVR, DT, k-NN) and offset adjustment for pay-as-bid markets.
result The proposed approach increases potential revenues by 27.43% to 37.31% compared to baseline models.
I studied the convergence of regional house prices to national prices in USA by analyzing time-series of house price indices of 9 Census Divisions. I found the evidence of the convergence in some parts of the country using asymmetric unit root tests. The fact that the evidence of the convergence is not present in large…
The paper develops a new framework for pricing and hedging liquidity in crypto markets.
problem Arbitrage and risk management in crypto market making.
method Developed a new mathematical framework using a coordinate system defined by price and intrinsic liquidity.
result Established a linear dependence of asset reserves and value functions on intrinsic liquidity, facilitating arbitrage-free pricing and delta hedging.
Stablecoin system improves resilience to extreme market events.
problem Vulnerability of stablecoins to extreme volatility and adversarial attacks.
method MVF-Composer uses multi-agent simulations to stress-test and down-weight manipulative signals.
result Reduces peak peg deviation by 57% and mean recovery time by 3.1x under adversarial conditions.
We consider the problem of decomposing monetary risk in the presence of a fully traded market in {\it some} risks. We show that a mark-to-market approach to pricing leads to such a decomposition if the risk measure is time-consistent in the sense of Delbaen.
In this paper, we study the stochastic version of the one-sided full information bandit problem, where we have K arms [K]={1,2,…,K}, and playing arm i would gain reward from an unknown distribution for arm i while obtaining reward feedback for all arms j≥i. One-sided full information bandit ca…
This paper addresses recalibration issues in hedging callable assets, proposing a new risk-adjusted approach.
problem The mismatch between dynamic hedging theory and practice due to daily recalibration.
method Extends HVA model risk approach to callable assets, focusing on recalibration and model risks.
result Model risk reserves adjusted for exercise decisions may significantly exceed basic valuation differences.
Overprocuring reserves can improve network efficiency by using excess reserves for congestion management.
problem Optimizing energy and reserve allocation between zones to minimize costs and ensure deliverability.
method Developed allocation models for co-allocating traded energy and reserve products, considering both deterministic and stochastic flows.
result Excess reserve supplies can be used for congestion management, leading to additional network benefits.
New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.
problem Traditional claims reserving methods are limited in individual claim prediction.
method Restructured data utilization for CL prediction, using multi-period factors.
result Neural networks applied for individual claims reserving.
Optimal control of reserve assets for stablecoins to maintain peg stability.
problem Balancing immediate liquidity and yield on reserve assets for stablecoin peg maintenance.
method Developed a stochastic model predictive control framework with moment closure for event intensities, incorporating a soft-thresholding structure for rebalancing.
result Optimal policy shifts predictably toward cash as expected outflows intensify or windows lengthen, preserving most bill carry in calm markets and quickly building cash during stress.
A novel probabilistic approach forecasts imbalance prices in Belgium.
problem Forecasting imbalance prices in short-term energy markets.
method Two-step approach: compute net regulation volume state transition probabilities, then infer imbalance prices.
result The probabilistic approach outperforms deterministic and Gaussian Process models.
RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.
problem Managing insurance reserve setting under claim development uncertainty and macroeconomic stress.
method Reinforcement Learning (PPO) with CVaR constraints, trained under regime-aware curriculum.
result RL-CVaR policy reduces solvency violations and tail-risk compared to classical methods.
Paper proposes a new reserving model using machine learning techniques.
problem Managing uncertainties in premium sufficiency and reserves for future claims.
method Stacked model combining Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, and log-normal approach.
result The proposed model improves traditional reserving techniques, leading to more accurate reserving risk assessment.
New method simplifies individual claims reserving.
problem Insufficient flexibility and robustness in existing methods.
method Building on classical chain-ladder method, introduces new perspective.
result Advances toward a new standard for micro-level reserving.
Chain-ladder reserving is sensitive to outliers, leading to unreliable estimates.
problem Sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers.
method Derivation of impact functions for reserves and mean squared errors of prediction under Mack's Model.
result Impact of outliers varies widely in a loss triangle and depends on other cells.
Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.
problem Accurately predicting individual claim reserves in insurance contracts.
method Multinomial logistic regression to model claim activation and development.
result The model generates accurate predictions of total and per coverage reserves.
New findings challenge the importance of forecast accuracy in battery storage optimization, highlighting the role of rank correlation instead.
problem The challenge of optimizing battery storage dispatch decisions in multi-market electricity trading using forecast accuracy metrics.
method A hierarchical three-layer optimization system trading in multiple markets (FCR, aFRR, day-ahead, intraday) with real market data.
result Rank correlation (Kendall tau) is a better predictor of intraday dispatch value than forecast accuracy (MAE), with a threshold of tau around 0.85-0.95 capturing up to 97-100% of perfect-foresight revenue.
Optimal fees for G3Ms align LP value with market accuracy.
problem Optimal fees for G3Ms to attract liquidity without sacrificing accuracy.
method Developed a framework for determining LP value with fees for G3Ms under diffusion.
result LPs prefer G3Ms over other strategies as fees approach zero.
We study the most famous example of a large financial market: the Arbitrage Pricing Model, where investors can trade in a one-period setting with countably many assets admitting a factor structure. We consider the problem of maximising expected utility in this setting. Besides establishing the existence of optimizers u…
New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.
problem Disability insurance claims are affected by long delays and adjudication processes.
method Proposes a new individual reserving model for real-time claim evolution.
result Shows that new reserves can be calculated as modifications of classic reserves.
Case study shows impact of co-optimizing energy and reserve for wind energy.
problem Impact of lack of co-optimization of energy and reserve in high wind penetration scenarios.
method Developed two models with and without co-optimization, calibrated with Spanish market parameters.
result Models show significant differences in energy and reserve management.
A new framework combines multiple loss reserving models for better predictive performance.
problem Combining multiple loss reserving models to improve predictive performance.
method Systematic framework that considers full distributional properties and features of reserving data.
result Optimized ensemble outperforms traditional methods and captures relevant quantiles.