Scorio.jl ranks systems from repeated tasks using various methods.
problem Evaluating and ranking systems from repeated responses to shared tasks.
method Common tensor-based interface for multiple ranking methods.
result Pilot experiments show stability and runtime scaling.
The paper introduces a frequency-domain estimator for low-order systems from noisy data.
problem Estimating frequency responses of low-order systems from noisy measurements.
method Uses a quadratic data-fitting term regularized by the nuclear norm of a Loewner matrix, subject to a convex stability constraint.
result Proves a finite-sample error bound and extends it to all frequencies through rational interpolation.
Proposes methods to correct bias and missing data in regression models.
problem Nonignorable selection bias and missing response in regression models.
method Imputation-based and importance weighted regression methods, including repeated regression and doubly robust combination.
result Repeated regression can effectively correct bias and outperforms weighted regression in extrapolation.
Algorithm learns to play against unknown opponents in sequential games.
problem Designing strategies for a learner to interact with an unknown opponent in repeated sequential games.
method Kernel-based regularity assumptions and a novel algorithm combining bilevel optimization and online learning.
result Algorithm achieves sublinear regret guarantees and is effective in specific game settings.
A new method combines machine learning with mixed-effects models for better repeated measurement analysis.
problem Inference of linear coefficients in partially linear mixed-effects models with complex interactions and high-dimensional variables.
method Double machine learning approach to estimate nonparametrically nonlinear variables, then use standard linear mixed-effects techniques to estimate the linear coefficient.
result The estimated fixed effects coefficient converges at the parametric rate and is semiparametrically efficient.
Sequence probability predicts correctness in LLMs, but not for repeated prompts
problem Predicting correctness in large language models
method Quantifying sequence probability and correctness across different levels
result Higher sequence probability often predicts correctness across prompt-answer pairs
LLMs generate answers under incomplete context, and their uncertainty should scale with missing information.
problem Evaluating the quality of LLM answers under incomplete context.
method A controlled framework with varying context availability, and two uncertainty measures (sampling-based confidence and response entropy) evaluated on SQuAD.
result Response entropy increases with context removal and explains more variance in accuracy than confidence, suggesting it is a more responsive uncertainty measure.
The study analyzes how large language models form and express investor risk profiles.
problem Understanding how large language models (LLMs) form and express investor risk profiles.
method Examined three LLMs (GPT, Gemini, and Llama) and assessed their responses to a standardized risk questionnaire under varying prompts.
result LLMs generally form long-term investment profiles, but they exhibit different risk tolerance levels.
New geometric theory explains nonuniform origami responses.
problem Understanding nonuniform responses in origami sheets.
method Purely geometric continuum theory capturing nonuniform, nonlinear response.
result Three modes govern nonuniform response, varying smoothly across the sheet.
Response time improves alignment with diverse human preferences.
problem Standard aggregation of feedback ignores heterogeneity and anonymity.
method Augmenting feedback with response time data and modeling decisions with DDM.
result Estimator of heterogeneous preferences converges to true average preference.
The paper improves random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
problem Improving random forest models for non-Gaussian responses.
method Extends boosting random forests to model exponential family responses using residuals and weights.
result Generalized boosted forests reduce bias and provide conservative confidence intervals.
NeuPL learns diverse policies in strategy games efficiently.
problem Iterative training of policies in strategy games leads to under-trained good-responses and wasteful repetition.
method NeuPL uses a single conditional model to represent a population of policies, offering convergence guarantees and transfer learning.
result NeuPL achieves better performance and efficiency across various domains, enabling access to novel strategies.
A new test validates ensemble models against the null hypothesis.
problem Validating ensemble models against the null hypothesis of a constant response.
method Randomized permutation test on SVEM model predictions.
result The test maintains Type I error rate even with more parameters than observations.
This paper reviews random forest methods for analyzing longitudinal data in precision medicine.
problem Analyzing longitudinal data for precision medicine.
method Extensions of random forest for longitudinal data analysis.
result Categorization of random forest methods for different data structures and repeated measurements.
The P300 event-related potential (ERP), evoked in scalp-recorded electroencephalography (EEG) by external stimuli, has proven to be a reliable response for controlling a BCI. The P300 component of an event related potential is thus widely used in brain-computer interfaces to translate the subjects' intent by mere thoug…
Study one-shot strategic classification under unknown costs, improving worst-case accuracy.
problem Learning robust decision rules in strategic settings with unknown user costs.
method Formal study of one-shot strategic classification, framing as a minimax problem, designing efficient algorithms for full-batch and stochastic settings.
result Proves efficient algorithms converge to minimax solution, revealing dual norm regularization's value.
An efficient algorithm selects the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit models.
problem Determining the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit graded response models.
method Adaptive Bayesian dimension selection framework using cumulative ordered spike-and-slab (COSS) prior and Albert--Chib latent response augmentation.
result The proposed method accurately recovers latent structures and avoids repeated model fitting.
Fictitious play is a simple and widely studied adaptive heuristic for playing repeated games. It is well known that fictitious play fails to be Hannan consistent. Several variants of fictitious play including regret matching, generalized regret matching and smooth fictitious play, are known to be Hannan consistent. In …
Method fuses low and high-resolution data for better health estimates.
problem Improving high-resolution health estimates from mixed data sources.
method Fusion of unbiased low-resolution and potentially biased high-resolution data, learning a distribution consistent with sampling bias.
result Significant reduction in bias in high-resolution estimates.
Study reviews machine learning techniques for stress monitoring.
problem Improving accuracy of stress monitoring devices.
method Reviewed machine learning techniques for various stress indicators.
result Choosing the right classifier depends on multiple factors.
Retraining stabilizes model influence on data.
problem Performativity in predictive models leads to feedback loops.
method Developed the stable signal principle to address retraining dynamics.
result Repeated risk minimization converges geometrically to stable signal direction.
CausalLongPFN predicts counterfactual outcomes from time-series data.
problem Predicting future outcomes under varying treatments in time-series data with confounding and heterogeneity.
method Prior-fitted network pretrained on synthetic episodes of temporal structural causal models.
result CausalLongPFN outperforms domain-trained models on factual and counterfactual prediction tasks.
We discuss a Bayesian formulation to coarse-graining (CG) of PDEs where the coefficients (e.g. material parameters) exhibit random, fine scale variability. The direct solution to such problems requires grids that are small enough to resolve this fine scale variability which unavoidably requires the repeated solution of…
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.
Using piezoelectric impedance/admittance sensing for structural health monitoring is promising, owing to the simplicity in circuitry design as well as the high-frequency interrogation capability. The actual identification of fault location and severity using impedance/admittance measurements, nevertheless, remains to b…
This work models variability in composite blades' vibrations.
problem Variability in structural dynamics due to manufacturing differences.
method Defining a general model for frequency response functions using mixtures of Gaussian processes.
result A general model for frequency response functions of composite blades.
User strategization undermines algorithmic trustworthiness.
problem User strategic behavior corrupts algorithmic data and trust.
method Modeling user-platform interactions as a game, analyzing strategic behavior's short-term benefits and long-term harms.
result User strategization can initially benefit platforms but ultimately harms their ability to make accurate decisions.
Study off-policy evaluation and learning in dynamic pricing with context.
problem Dynamic personalized pricing and operations management problems with high-dimensional user types.
method Formalize causal structure, leverage single time-step evaluation, estimate marginal MDP.
result Improved out-of-sample policy performance in dynamic and capacitated pricing.
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) with an auto-regressive decoder have been applied for many natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The VAE objective consists of two terms, (i) reconstruction and (ii) KL regularization, balanced by a weighting hyper-parameter β. One notorious training difficulty is that the KL term ten…
Optimal strategies are found for a repeated betting game using diffusion approximation.
problem Finding optimal strategies for a repeated betting game with i.i.d. outcomes.
method Constructing a diffusion approximation of the repeated game and analyzing the wealth share process.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for the wealth share process to be transient or recurrent are derived.
Bayesian optimization with RPCE reduces MAP estimation for structural dynamics models.
problem Estimating parameters of structural dynamic models efficiently.
method Bayesian optimization with RPCE surrogate model.
result Effective reduction in model evaluations for MAP estimation.
Convolutional networks struggle with repeating patterns in ECGs.
problem Modeling repeating patterns in electrocardiogram signals.
method Demonstrated through ECG examples, highlighting systemic issues in deep learning.
result Counterintuitive effects on generalization in deep networks.
We study two systems of tangle equations that arise when modeling the action of the Integrase family of proteins on DNA. These two systems--direct and inverted repeats--correspond to two different possibilities for the initial DNA sequence. We present one new class of solutions to the tangle equations. In the case of i…
Study explores algorithmic collusion in repeated games using various learning dynamics.
problem Understanding algorithmic collusion in repeated games with different learning dynamics.
method Examines Q-learning, gradient learning, and other dynamics in a general repeated game setting. result Characterizes the set of payoff vectors achievable by these dynamics, revealing possibilities for collusion.
Neurons in cortical circuits exhibit coordinated spiking activity, and can produce correlated synchronous spikes during behavior and cognition. We recently developed a method for estimating the dynamics of correlated ensemble activity by combining a model of simultaneous neuronal interactions (e.g., a spin-glass model)…
We investigate the question of when distinct branched surfaces in the complement of a 2-bridge knot support essential surfaces with identical boundary slopes. We determine all instances in which this occurs and identify an infinite family of knots for which no boundary slopes are repeated.
LAFF algorithm balances adaptability and non-exploitability in repeated games.
problem Low regret in repeated games against unknown opponent classes.
method LAFF algorithm searches within sub-algorithms optimal for each opponent class and uses a punishment policy for exploitation.
result LAFF guarantees sublinear regret uniformly over possible opponents, except exploitative ones, for which it guarantees linear regret.
A new neural network initialization method is proposed for faster and more accurate training.
problem Efficient initialization for training multi-layer feedforward neural networks.
method Initialization based on Stein's identity, using eigenvectors of cross-moment matrix.
result The SteinGLM method is faster and more accurate than other initialization methods.
Link concordance and Whitney towers linked to Milnor invariants.
problem Link concordance and Whitney towers classification.
method Clasper surgeries, Whitney towers, and Milnor invariants.
result Link concordance and Whitney towers classified in terms of Milnor invariants.
Model detects patterns in noisy binary data, explaining neuron activity in terms of cell assemblies.
problem Detecting structure in noisy or approximate repeats of patterns in sparse binary data.
method Probabilistic binary latent variable model based on Noisy-OR model, inferring sparse activity in latent variables.
result Model successfully extracts and explains latent structure in spiking neural data.
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
It has long been known that a Milnor invariant with no repeated index is an invariant of link homotopy. We show that Milnor's invariants with repeated indices are invariants not only of isotopy, but also of self C_k-moves. A self C_k-move is a natural generalization of link homotopy based on certain degree k clasper su…
We investigate some geometric properties of the real algebraic variety Δ of symmetric matrices with repeated eigenvalues. We explicitly compute the volume of its intersection with the sphere and prove a Eckart-Young-Mirsky-type theorem for the distance function from a generic matrix to points in Δ. We exhibit conne…
This paper tackles the reduction of redundant repeating generation that is often observed in RNN-based encoder-decoder models. Our basic idea is to jointly estimate the upper-bound frequency of each target vocabulary in the encoder and control the output words based on the estimation in the decoder. Our method shows si…
Machine learning models for repeated measurements are limited. Using topological data analysis (TDA), we present a classifier for repeated measurements which samples from the data space and builds a network graph based on the data topology. When applying this to two case studies, accuracy exceeds alternative models wit…
Study optimizes product assortment for retailers with repeated exposures and patience costs.
problem Optimizing product assortment for online retailers with repeated exposures and varying consumer patience.
method Developed a cascade multinomial logit model to capture repeated exposures and patience costs.
result Proposed an approximation solution to the assortment optimization problem.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are based on repeated aggregations of information across nodes' neighbors in a graph. However, because common neighbors are shared between different nodes, this leads to repeated and inefficient computations. We propose Hierarchically Aggregated computation Graphs (HAGs), a new GNN graph re…
We present Sequential Attend, Infer, Repeat (SQAIR), an interpretable deep generative model for videos of moving objects. It can reliably discover and track objects throughout the sequence of frames, and can also generate future frames conditioning on the current frame, thereby simulating expected motion of objects. Th…