A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Firms miscount their customers who stop buying without saying goodbye.
Whether stochastic or parametric, the Pareto/NBD model can only be utilized for an in-sample prediction rather than an out-of-sample prediction. This research thus provides a neural network based extension of the Pareto/NBD model to estimate the out-of-sample parameters, which overrides the estimation burden and the ap…
In this paper, we study the assortment optimization problem faced by many online retailers such as Amazon. We develop a \emph{cascade multinomial logit model}, based on the classic multinomial logit model, to capture the consumers' purchasing behavior across multiple stages. Different from existing studies, our model a…
The paper optimizes insurance purchases for financial goals.
We propose a new efficient online algorithm to learn the parameters governing the purchasing behavior of a utility maximizing buyer, who responds to prices, in a repeated interaction setting. The key feature of our algorithm is that it can learn even non-linear buyer utility while working with arbitrary price constrain…
Toehold purchase, defined here as purchase of one share in a firm by an investor preparing a tender offer to acquire majority of shares in it, reduces by one the number of shares this investor needs for majority. In the paper we construct mathematical models for the toehold and no-toehold strategies and compare the exp…
We find the minimum probability of lifetime ruin of an investor who can invest in a market with a risky and a riskless asset and can purchase a deferred annuity. Although we let the admissible set of strategies of annuity purchasing process to be increasing adapted processes, we find that the individual will not buy a …
Access to a large variety of data across a massive population has made it possible to predict customer purchase patterns and responses to marketing campaigns. In particular, accurate demand forecasts for popular products with frequent repeat purchases are essential since these products are one of the main drivers of pr…
Motivated by online advertising auctions, we consider repeated Vickrey auctions where goods of unknown value are sold sequentially and bidders only learn (potentially noisy) information about a good's value once it is purchased. We adopt an online learning approach with bandit feedback to model this problem and derive …
We determine the optimal strategies for purchasing term life insurance and for investing in a risky financial market in order to maximize the probability of reaching a bequest goal while consuming from an investment account. We extend Bayraktar and Young (2015) by allowing the individual to purchase term life insurance…
We determine how an individual can use life insurance to meet a bequest goal. We assume that the individual's consumption is met by an income, such as a pension, life annuity, or Social Security. Then, we consider the wealth that the individual wants to devote towards heirs (separate from any wealth related to the afor…
We determine the optimal amount of life insurance for a household of two wage earners. We consider the simple case of exponential utility, thereby removing wealth as a factor in buying life insurance, while retaining the relationship among life insurance, income, and the probability of dying and thus losing that income…
Gradient boosting detects insider purchases predicting abnormal returns in microcap stocks.
In this research we study a finite horizon optimal purchasing problem for items with a mean reverting price process. Under this model a fixed amount of identical items are bought under a given deadline, with the objective of minimizing the cost of their purchasing price and associated holding cost. We prove that the op…
Recommender system, as an essential part of modern e-commerce, consists of two fundamental modules, namely Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction. While CVR has a direct impact on the purchasing volume, its prediction is well-known challenging due to the Sample Selection Bias (SSB) and Data Spars…
We present a model of credit card profitability, assuming that the card-holder always pays the full outstanding balance. The motivation for the model is to calculate an optimal credit limit, which requires an expression for the expected outstanding balance. We derive its Laplace transform, assuming that purchases are m…
Study predicts purchasing decisions of online food delivery customers.
Sequence probability predicts correctness in LLMs, but not for repeated prompts
We find the minimum probability of lifetime ruin of an investor who can invest in a market with a risky and a riskless asset and who can purchase a reversible life annuity. The surrender charge of a life annuity is a proportion of its value. Ruin occurs when the total of the value of the risky and riskless assets and t…
Paper develops framework for valuing and assessing credit risk in renewable PPAs.
The DeepSurv model predicts purchase timing better than other survival models.
As video games attract more and more players, the major challenge for game studios is to retain them. We present a deep behavioral analysis of churn (game abandonment) and what we called "purchase churn" (the transition from paying to non-paying user). A series of churning behavior profiles are identified, which allows…
PRESTO improves rare event prediction by shrinking towards proportional odds model.
We consider the problem of how an individual can use term life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal, an important problem in financial planning. We assume that the individual buys instantaneous term life insurance with a premium payable continuously. By contrast with Bayraktar et al. (…
Paper proposes a method to estimate consumer valuations from bundle sales data.
We study the optimal timing of derivative purchases in incomplete markets. In our model, an investor attempts to maximize the spread between her model price and the offered market price through optimally timing her purchase. Both the investor and the market value the options by risk-neutral expectations but under diffe…
Study on the probability of immunity and its bounds.
Investors pay for additional asset information based on utility maximization.
Recommending the right products is the central problem in recommender systems, but the right products should also be recommended at the right time to meet the demands of users, so as to maximize their values. Users' demands, implying strong purchase intents, can be the most useful way to promote products sales if well …
The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in Chinese stock markets in year 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact…
Assortment optimization is an important problem that arises in many industries such as retailing and online advertising where the goal is to find a subset of products from a universe of substitutable products which maximize seller's expected revenue. One of the key challenges in this problem is to model the customer su…
The goal of online display advertising is to entice users to "convert" (i.e., take a pre-defined action such as making a purchase) after clicking on the ad. An important measure of the value of an ad is the probability of conversion. The focus of this paper is the development of a computationally efficient, accurate, a…
We present a Bayesian framework for estimating the customer lifetime value (CLV) and the customer equity (CE) based on the purchasing behavior deducible from the market surveys on customer purchasing behavior. The proposed framework systematically addresses the challenges faced when the future value of customers is est…
In this paper we extend the investigation into the transition from sure to probabilistic sniping as introduced in Menkveld and Zoican \cite{mz2017}. In that paper, the authors introduce a stylized version of a competitive game in which high frequency traders (HFTs) interact with each other and liquidity traders. The au…
Next basket recommendation, which aims to predict the next a few items that a user most probably purchases given his historical transactions, plays a vital role in market basket analysis. From the viewpoint of item, an item could be purchased by different users together with different items, for different reasons. Ther…
Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers wh…
Study finds Indian mutual funds adjust cash holdings based on inflows, impacting stock purchases.
It is common to encounter situations where one must solve a sequence of similar computational problems. Running a standard algorithm with worst-case runtime guarantees on each instance will fail to take advantage of valuable structure shared across the problem instances. For example, when a commuter drives from work to…
The interactions of users and items in recommender system could be naturally modeled as a user-item bipartite graph. In recent years, we have witnessed an emerging research effort in exploring user-item graph for collaborative filtering methods. Nevertheless, the formation of user-item interactions typically arises fro…
Paper proposes unbiased learning for recommendation causal effects.
This technical report records the experiments of applying multiple machine learning algorithms for predicting eating and food purchasing behaviors of free-living individuals. Data was collected with accelerometer, global positioning system (GPS), and body-worn cameras called SenseCam over a one week period in 81 indivi…
With the rapid growth in fashion e-commerce and customer-friendly product return policies, the cost to handle returned products has become a significant challenge. E-tailers incur huge losses in terms of reverse logistics costs, liquidation cost due to damaged returns or fraudulent behavior. Accurate prediction of prod…
Investigates the number of experiments needed for statistical significance in medication testing.
This paper analyzes DRL strategies in finance, revealing unique trading patterns and performance differences.
We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian approach to tackle the challenging problem of size recommendation in e-commerce fashion. Our approach jointly models a size purchased by a customer, and its possible return event: 1. no return, 2. returned too small 3. returned too big. Those events are drawn following a multinomial…
Study uses causal machine learning to assess coupon campaign impact on retailer sales.
Study examines how insurance affects households prone to proportional losses, especially those near poverty.
The article compares neural networks and logistic regression for credit scoring and introduces a new probability calibration technique.