A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper uses alternative data to forecast Japanese real estate performance.
RENT selects stable features for robust model interpretation.
We consider a simple stochastic model of a urban rental housing market, in which the interaction of tenants and landlords induces rent fluctuations. We simulate the model numerically and measure the equilibrium rent distribution, which is found to be close to a lognormal law. We also study the influence of the density …
Homeownership boosts wealth and welfare compared to renting, according to new research.
We propose a simple probabilistic model to explain the spatial structure of the rent distribution of housing market in city of Sapporo. Here we modify the mathematical model proposed by Gauvin et. al. Especially, we consider the competition between two distances, namely, the distance between house and center, and the d…
The hedonic approach based on a regression model has been widely adopted for the prediction of real estate property price and rent. In particular, a spatial regression technique called Kriging, a method of interpolation that was advanced in the field of spatial statistics, are known to enable high accuracy prediction i…
Model shows how relaxed leverage can lead to asset price bubbles.
In a densely populated city like Dhaka (Bangladesh), a growing number of high-rise buildings is an inevitable reality. However, they pose mental health risks for citizens in terms of detachment from natural light, sky view, greenery, and environmental landscapes. The housing economy and rent structure in different area…
We consider the static and dynamic models of Cournot duopoly with tax evasion. In the dynamic model we introduce the time delay and we analyze the local stability of the stationary state. There is a critical value of the delay when the Hopf bifurcation occurs.
The study analyzes how wartime controls influenced zaibatsu stock prices in Japan.
Game theory shows miners' hardware improvements don't centralize mining.
Study examines how disturbances affect financial returns in Austrian forests.
The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic prospective tables thus built make it possible to project the evolution of the rand…
We derive the most probable distribution of resources for a simple society. We find that a probabilistic analysis forbids both too much and too less equity, and selects instead a minimally ordered state. We give the detailed calculations for a special model where the population and resources are fixed, and resources ar…
A commonly expressed concern about the rise of the peer-to-peer rental market Airbnb is that hosts---those renting out their properties---impose costs on their unwitting neighbors. I consider the question of whether apartment building owners will, in a competitive rental market, set a building-specific Airbnb hosting p…
Study identifies a Strategic Gap in market efficiency due to AI-driven timing and complexity in disclosure.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
The aim of this paper is to compare two asset allocation methods for a pension scheme during the decumulation phase in the simplified portfolio selection between a risky asset following a geometric Brownian motion and a riskless asset. The two asset allocation criteria are the ruin probability of the insurance company …
The paper analyzes how leverage affects manipulation in event-linked markets, offering new insights into regulation.
Exchanges acquire excess processing capacity to accommodate trading activity surges associated with zero-sum high-frequency trader (HFT) "duels." The idle capacity's opportunity cost is an externality of low-latency trading. We build a model of decentralized exchanges (DEX) with flexible capacity. On DEX, HFTs acquire …
In classic fair division problems such as cake cutting and rent division, envy-freeness requires that each individual (weakly) prefer his allocation to anyone else's. On a conceptual level, we argue that envy-freeness also provides a compelling notion of fairness for classification tasks. Our technical focus is the gen…
In this article, we initiate a geometric measure theoretic approach to symplectic Hodge theory. In particular, we apply one of the central results in geometric measure theory, the Federer-Fleming deformation theorem, together with the cohomology theory of normal cur- rents on a differential manifold, to establish a fun…
SPAC data shows premium investors get better terms, non-premium get quid pro quo deals.
Isobenefit Lines can offer a certain range of applicability in Location Theory and Gravitational Models for Urban and Geography Economics, in positional decision processes made by citizens, and, last but not least, in land value and property market theories and analysis. The value of a land, or a property, in a generic…
Monopoly breakup impacts AT&T and AMX's market value by 65% and 32%.
The paper analyzes how mutable blockchain protocols affect miner behavior and strategic stability.
Dark blockchain venues increase miners' profits but raise users' execution risk.
Optimal reconciliation keeps some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
Combining forecasts of 16 ED causes improves accuracy and stability.
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
Organic updates (from a member's network) and sponsored updates (or ads, from advertisers) together form the newsfeed on LinkedIn. The newsfeed, the default homepage for members, attracts them to engage, brings them value and helps LinkedIn grow. Engagement and Revenue on feed are two critical, yet often conflicting ob…
Two new methods improve forecasting of functional time series data.
Deep learning improves time series forecasting, outperforming other methods.
Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed weather data while the trained models are applied for energy forecasting using for…
MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.
Simplifies forecast combination by using diversity of out-of-sample forecasts.
Develops forecast hedging for improved calibration of forecasts.
Microdata improves inflation forecasts after major shocks, study finds.
Improved forecast accuracy for Knitwear by 20% using adaptive AI/ML model.
Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In o…
Paper proposes a new method for selecting the best hierarchical forecasting approach.
Proposes a neural network for accurate and reconciled hierarchical time series forecasting.
The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies by forecasting problem. In addition,…
This paper reviews forecast combinations over 50 years, highlighting their evolution and utility.
This paper improves forecast stability without sacrificing accuracy using dynamic loss weighting.
A new framework detects forecast model inadequacies using online monitoring of forecast errors.