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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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113225338450 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for reliable offline evaluation

Develops a method to evaluate OPE robustness to hyperparameters and policies.

problem Difficulty in selecting and tuning OPE estimators due to limited experimental evaluations.
method Introduces IEOE (Interpretable Evaluation for Offline Evaluation) to assess robustness.
result Demonstrates improved evaluation of OPE estimators' reliability.

New OPE estimator improves offline policy evaluation for large action spaces.

problem Existing OPE estimators fail with large action spaces, leading to extreme bias and variance.
method Proposes a new estimator using marginalized importance weights and action embeddings.
result Empirical performance improvement enables reliable OPE even with many actions.

Safe offline RL for chemical reactors using input convex neural networks.

problem Safe control of exothermic polymerization reactors using historical data.
method Gymnasium-compatible simulation, behaviour cloning, implicit Q-learning, input convex neural networks (PICNNs).
result Offline RL with convex action correction outperforms traditional control approaches.

A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.

problem Difficulty in long-horizon value prediction in offline reinforcement learning.
method Bellman calibration, a weak reliability criterion, and Iterated Bellman Calibration.
result Finite-sample guarantees show that Bellman calibration error is controlled at nonparametric rates.

This work improves policy-based training by proposing an evaluation balance objective for GFlowNets.

problem Reliable estimation of policy divergence under directed acyclic graphs remains challenging.
method Proposes an evaluation balance objective over partial episodes to measure policy divergence and improve policy-based training reliability.
result Evaluation balance strengthens policy-based training reliability and broadens its flexibility.

HAMBO estimates policy performance by hallucinating worst-case trajectories, providing valid lower bounds.

problem Conservative off-policy evaluation of policies in real-world applications.
method HAMBO hallucinates worst-case trajectories based on learned model uncertainty.
result Valid lower bounds on policy performance, converging to true expected return under regular conditions.

New methods for evaluating and optimizing policies in offline RL with unobserved confounders.

problem Evaluating and optimizing policies in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Characterized settings and algorithms for consistent value estimates and lower bounds, with sample complexity guarantees.
result Proved local convergence guarantees for offline policy improvement.

Recommendation systems have been integrated into the majority of large online systems to filter and rank information according to user profiles. It thus influences the way users interact with the system and, as a consequence, bias the evaluation of the performance of a recommendation algorithm computed using historical…

2015-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

This work characterizes conditions for offline policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.

problem Understanding when classical methods succeed in offline policy evaluation for linear function approximation.
method Control-theoretic and linear-algebraic conditions for classical methods (FQI and LSTD).
result A precise hierarchy of regimes under which these estimators succeed, and a complete picture of their behavior.

Meta-KeL learns kernels from offline data to improve sequential decision-making.

problem Adaptive confidence sets for prediction functions in sequential decision-making tasks.
method Meta-KeL: meta-learning a kernel from offline data; structured sparsity estimator for unknown kernel combinations.
result Valid confidence sets that become as tight as those given the true unknown kernel with increasing offline data.

Paper addresses offline policy evaluation in RL, achieving near-optimal bounds for various policy classes.

problem Evaluate all policies in a class simultaneously for offline RL.
method Uniform convergence in OPE for various policy classes, achieving optimal episode complexity.
result Achieves optimal episode complexity of O(H^3/d_mε^2) for identifying ε-optimal policies.

New offline RL study shows exponential sample requirement for accurate policy evaluation.

problem Understanding statistical limits of offline RL with linear function approximation.
method Analyzes necessary representational and distributional conditions for sample-efficient offline reinforcement learning.
result Even with realizability and good feature coverage, offline RL requires exponential samples for accurate policy evaluation.

OPERA blends multiple OPE estimators to evaluate new policies offline.

problem Lack of reliable offline policy evaluation methods for new policies.
method Adaptive blending of multiple OPE estimators without explicit selection.
result Consistent and reliable policy evaluation framework for offline RL.

Paper establishes baselines for offline RL from visual observations.

problem Challenges in offline reinforcement learning from visual observations with continuous action spaces.
method Simple baselines and benchmarking tasks for offline RL from visual observations.
result Simple modifications to existing online RL algorithms outperform existing offline RL methods.

Paper tackles efficient evaluation of natural stochastic policies in offline RL.

problem Efficiency issues in evaluating natural stochastic policies due to unknown evaluation policy.
method Derive efficiency bounds for tilting and modified treatment policies, propose nonparametric estimators.
result Proposed estimators attain efficiency bounds under lax conditions and enjoy partial double robustness.

In data-limited settings, stochastic policies can outperform deterministic ones in bandit problems.

problem Making reliable decisions with limited data in bandit problems.
method Designing TRUST, an algorithm that uses localization laws and relative pessimism.
result TRUST achieves comparable sample complexity to LCB on minimax problems but is significantly lower on few-sample problems.

The paper improves off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits using conformal prediction.

problem Quantifying the performance of a target policy using data from a different behavior policy.
method Proposes a novel algorithm based on a PAC-valid conformal prediction framework to construct probably approximately correct prediction intervals.
result Establishes PAC-type bounds on coverage, improving theoretical guarantees.

Paper addresses inconsistency between offline and online LTR performance.

problem Inconsistency between offline and online LTR performance in E-commerce.
method Proposes an evaluator-generator framework to maximize evaluator score using reinforcement learning.
result Significant improvement in Conversion Rate (CR) over existing models.

Paper offers a fast convergence theory for offline decision making.

problem Offline decision making problems, including reinforcement learning and off-policy evaluation.
method Introduces a framework (DMOF) and algorithm (EDD) with a fast convergence guarantee.
result Demonstrates a fast convergence guarantee with a lower bound complement.

Paper proposes real-time VaR estimation using quantile regression forest with conformal calibration.

problem Real-time estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) in rapidly changing markets.
method Quantile regression forest trained offline, real-time VaR estimates via observed risk factors, conformalized estimator for reliability.
result The proposed method provides reliable real-time VaR estimates.

BCRL learns a Bellman complete representation for offline RL policy evaluation.

problem Learning a Q-function efficiently from offline data.
method BCRL learns a linear Bellman complete representation directly from data, enabling efficient OPE.
result BCRL achieves competitive OPE error and outperforms FQE in certain scenarios.

New insights on offline RL with state aggregation and trajectory data.

problem Understanding sample complexity in offline policy evaluation.
method Analyzing concentrability coefficient in aggregated Markov Transition Model.
result Sample complexity depends on concentrability coefficient in aggregated model.

The paper studies OPE with missing data, showing bias under nonignorable missingness and proposing a solution.

problem Estimating value of a target policy from logged data with missingness.
method Investigates OPE with monotone missingness, proposes an IPW value estimator, and conducts statistical inference.
result Value estimates remain unbiased under ignorable missingness but can be biased under nonignorable missingness.

The paper shows how ignoring temporal context in recommender systems evaluation leads to false confidence, proposing a method to embed temporal context.

problem The discrepancy between offline and online recommender system performance evaluation.
method Proposes a training procedure to embed temporal context into recommender systems and validates its advantage using multi-objective optimization.
result Including temporal context in recommender systems evaluation can improve recall@20 by up to 20%.

Offline RL with pre-trained features amplifies errors even under mild shifts.

problem Sample-efficient offline RL with pre-trained features under mild distribution shift.
method Empirical study of offline RL with pre-trained neural representations.
result Substantial error amplification occurs even with pre-trained features, requiring stronger conditions for successful offline RL.

Normalizing flow regression approximates posterior distributions without additional sampling.

problem Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations.
method Normalizing flow regression (NFR) for offline inference.
result NFR yields a tractable posterior approximation through regression on existing log-density evaluations.

Recommendation systems have been integrated into the majority of large online systems. They tailor those systems to individual users by filtering and ranking information according to user profiles. This adaptation process influences the way users interact with the system and, as a consequence, increases the difficulty …

2014-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework for evaluating ad auctions using stochastic modeling.

problem Challenges in evaluating deterministic ad auctions.
method Repurposed bid landscape model to approximate propensity scores, enabling robust OPE estimators.
result Remarkable alignment with online A/B test results, achieving 92% MDA in CTR prediction.

RL Unplugged benchmarks offline RL methods across diverse domains.

problem Evaluate offline reinforcement learning methods without online data collection.
method Proposes a benchmark suite with diverse datasets and detailed evaluation protocols.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of offline RL methods across various domains.

This paper explores how IV methods can improve Q-function estimates in offline policy evaluation.

problem Confounding in estimating Q-function using reinforcement learning.
method Integrates IV techniques into offline policy evaluation (OPE) to improve Q-function estimates.
result State-of-the-art OPE methods are closely matched in performance by some IV methods.

New method efficiently evaluates policies using trajectory data.

problem Statistically efficient policy evaluation with limited data.
method Trajectory-based approach for policy evaluation.
result Improved sample complexity for policy evaluation.

PyCFRL helps ensure fair reinforcement learning policies from offline data.

problem Ensuring fairness in reinforcement learning policies for disadvantaged groups.
method Sequential data preprocessing to learn counterfactually fair policies.
result PyCFRL implements a novel algorithm for fair RL policy learning.