Optimal regression with reject option using conditional variance thresholding.
problem Regression with reject option to handle uncertain predictions.
method Derive optimal rule based on thresholding conditional variance, semi-supervised estimation using labeled and unlabeled data.
result The predictor with reject option is almost as good as the optimal predictor in terms of risk and rejection rate.
Paper connects rejection learning to Bhattacharyya divergence.
problem Learning models to abstain from predictions.
method Developed a link between rejection and thresholding different statistical divergences, focusing on Bhattacharyya divergence.
result Rejector obtained by joint ideal distribution corresponds to thresholding of skewed Bhattacharyya divergence.
A dealer manages quotes and rejection rules to control slippage risk in FX markets.
problem Managing inventory risk and latency risk in OTC FX market making.
method Dynamic programming and adiabatic-quadratic approximation to optimize quotes and rejection rules.
result Developed a method to optimize quotes and rejection rules for managing slippage risk.
We consider the problem of selective prediction (also known as reject option) in deep neural networks, and introduce SelectiveNet, a deep neural architecture with an integrated reject option. Existing rejection mechanisms are based mostly on a threshold over the prediction confidence of a pre-trained network. In contra…
A reject option improves partial-label learning's accuracy.
problem Ambiguously labeled data in real-world applications.
method Risk-consistent nearest-neighbor algorithm with a reject option.
result Our method provides the best trade-off between non-rejected predictions' number and accuracy.
In open set recognition (OSR), almost all existing methods are designed specially for recognizing individual instances, even these instances are collectively coming in batch. Recognizers in decision either reject or categorize them to some known class using empirically-set threshold. Thus the decision threshold plays a…
The paper provides high-probability bounds on false discovery proportions in conformal inference.
problem Existing methods fail to provide high-probability bounds on the realized false discovery proportion.
method Constructing a high-probability envelope for the empirical distribution function of null conformal p-values by sampling from their joint distribution.
result Establishes finite-sample, distribution-free upper bounds on the FDP that hold simultaneously over all possible rejection thresholds.
This work examines the effects of allowing borrowing in betting-based hypothesis testing.
problem The impact of allowing borrowing in betting-based hypothesis testing.
method Examined the consequences of allowing borrowing in each round, adjusting the rejection threshold accordingly.
result There is no extra price to pay for the possibility of borrowing if a path-dependent threshold is used.
RED-2400 is a public benchmark of trading events from a Solana exchange, labeled by algorithmic rejection.
problem Analyzing algorithmically-rejected trading events for insights into market dynamics.
method Public dataset of 6,660 algorithmically-rejected trading events, linked to post-rejection price and liquidity trajectories.
result First window of a planned series of datasets extending the time horizon and enabling regime-stratified analysis.
Generative classifiers have been shown promising to detect illegal inputs including adversarial examples and out-of-distribution samples. Supervised Deep Infomax~(SDIM) is a scalable end-to-end framework to learn generative classifiers. In this paper, we propose a modification of SDIM termed SDIM-\emph{logit}. Instead …
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
problem Controlling false discoveries in online hypothesis testing with decision deadlines.
method Benjamini-Hochberg-type procedure over a moving window of hypotheses with adaptive threshold parameters.
result Controls false discovery rate at every stage and adaptively chosen stopping times.
The study proposes a framework to accept OOD data based on competence scores.
problem Silent failures in Domain Generalization where models reject OOD data without proper justification.
method A learning to reject framework using proxy incompetence scores to predict trustworthiness.
result Increasing incompetence scores are predictive of reduced accuracy, but not always favorable for accuracy/rejection trade-off.
New algorithm finds best feasible arm in grouped bandits.
problem Finding the best arm with all attributes above a threshold.
method Feasibility Constrained Successive Rejects (FCSR) algorithm.
result FCSR identifies the best feasible arm with optimal dependence on problem parameters.
Model uses Preisach hysteresis to predict gig worker acceptance, reducing costs and improving fill rates.
problem Predicting and optimizing gig worker acceptance in labor markets.
method Preisach hysteresis model applied to neural network and XGBoost classifier for binary transaction outcomes.
result Model reduces total wage bill by 21.3% and increases expected fill rate by 9.7 pp.
Formalizes weak and strong verification for LLMs, controlling errors without assumptions.
problem Balancing cost and reliability in reasoning with LLMs.
method Formalizes weak-strong verification policies, introduces metrics, develops online algorithm.
result Optimal policies admit a two-threshold structure, and calibration and sharpness govern value of weak verifiers.
We introduce a general non-parametric independence test between right-censored survival times and covariates, which may be multivariate. Our test statistic has a dual interpretation, first in terms of the supremum of a potentially infinite collection of weight-indexed log-rank tests, with weight functions belonging to …
New diagnostic method detects misspecified models in inverse PDE problems.
problem Misleading residual-norm diagnostics in inverse PDE problems.
method Structure-sensitive sequential diagnostic using e-processes.
result Rejects fitted models that produce biased predictions.
The paper develops a theory for speculative decoding acceptance criteria.
problem Speculative decoding's acceptance criteria and their rejection regions.
method Characterization of rejection regions as lower level sets of the target distribution, derivation of exact and margin-based certificates.
result Relaxed and tree-based acceptance criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance.
We examine the Foreign Exchange (FX) spot price spreads with and without Last Look on the transaction. We assume that brokers are risk-neutral and they quote spreads so that losses to latency arbitrageurs (LAs) are recovered from other traders in the FX market. These losses are reduced if the broker can reject, ex-post…
PRS improves rejection sampling by learning better proposals.
problem High rejection rate in traditional rejection sampling.
method PRS uses a kernel estimator to learn better sampling proposals.
result PRS guarantees a low number of accepted samples.
A learning-based algorithm optimizes admission control in a queuing system.
problem Optimizing admission decisions in a queuing system with unknown parameters.
method Proposes a learning-based dispatching algorithm to minimize regret compared to optimal policies.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for different scenarios of unknown parameters.
A new algorithm speeds up rerandomization for better experiment balance.
problem Achieving optimal covariate balance in randomized experiments.
method Metropolis-Hastings framework with sampling-importance resampling.
result PSRSRR achieves significant speedups while maintaining statistical guarantees.
Paper improves privacy-preserving measurement of advertising incrementality.
problem Privacy degradation in randomized lift tests for advertising measurement.
method Formulates a robust causal decision problem under signal losses, projecting clean worlds onto incrementality.
result Sharp decision frontier shows valid certification or rejection outside the frontier.
Paper tackles regression with cost-based rejection, balancing prediction and rejection costs.
problem Regression with cost-based rejection, balancing prediction and rejection costs in a continuous target space.
method Formulated expected risk, derived Bayes optimal solution, proposed surrogate loss function.
result Bayes optimal solution can be recovered by the proposed surrogate loss function.
CIT and CIF improve feature selection for downstream prediction.
problem Feature selection bias in machine learning models.
method Conditional inference trees and forests with Bonferroni correction.
result CIF ranks top 3 among 18 regression methods and top 4 among 17 classification methods.
We provide a method for approximating Bayesian inference using rejection sampling. We not only make the process efficient, but also dramatically reduce the memory required relative to conventional methods by combining rejection sampling with particle filtering. We also provide an approximate form of rejection sampling …
Algorithmic trading systems on DEXs reject most candidate tokens, but the counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates is rarely measured.
problem Measuring the counterfactual outcome of rejected tokens in algorithmic trading systems on decentralized exchanges.
method Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS) introduces a methodology for collecting and analyzing the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates.
result PRFS produces the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates, not against synthetic backtest reconstructions.
RMT-Net tackles biased credit scoring data by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
problem Missing-not-at-random selection bias in financial credit scoring data.
method Reject-aware Multi-Task Network (RMT-Net) that leverages the correlation between default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
result RMT-Net improves credit scoring models by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
ABC method uses machine learning for likelihood-free inference.
problem Statistical inference in simulator-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Direct comparison of empirical distributions via KL divergence estimator and contrastive learning.
result Asymptotic normality of ABC posterior distributions with properly scaled exponential kernel.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a pseudo-posterior by comparing observed data with simulated data, traditionally based on some su…
Machine learning models are vulnerable to Adversarial Examples: minor perturbations to input samples intended to deliberately cause misclassification. Current defenses against adversarial examples, especially for Deep Neural Networks (DNN), are primarily derived from empirical developments, and their security guarantee…
A new approach to model rejection using density ratios.
problem Improving model performance through selective prediction.
method Optimization of a loss's risk with φ-divergence regularization to find an idealized data distribution.
result Model rejection can be made by comparing the density ratio of the idealized distribution to the actual data distribution.
Delayed rejection HMC improves sampling efficiency for multiscale distributions.
problem Hamiltonian Monte Carlo struggles with wide-ranging distributions, especially in high-curvature areas.
method Introduces a delayed rejection variant of HMC, using geometrically smaller step sizes for retries.
result Up to five-fold performance gains in effective sample size per gradient evaluation.
AdaPT-GMM improves multiple testing power with covariates.
problem Powerful and robust multiple testing with covariates.
method Covariate-assisted Gaussian mixture model with adaptive thresholding.
result AdaPT-GMM delivers high power in various scenarios.
Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…
Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected applications. In this research, we use deep generative models to develop two new semi-s…
ABI bypasses likelihood intractability with nonparametric distribution matching.
problem Approximate Bayesian computation's inefficiency in high-dimensional settings and under diffuse priors.
method Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI) compares posterior distributions directly using nonparametric distribution matching and MSW distance.
result ABI significantly outperforms other methods in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions, especially when models are unsure.
method Formalizing ML with reject option, using conformal prediction for distribution-free error guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on error rate for prediction sets with distribution-free validity.
Detects corruption in agentic models during execution.
problem Inconsistent context, retrieval errors, or adversarial inputs corrupt intermediate steps of reasoning chains.
method Analyzes token graphs induced by attention and computes spectral statistics to emit accept/reject signals.
result A single threshold on the high frequency energy ratio optimally detects context inconsistency in agentic models.
A novel method for classification with rejection using ensemble of cost-sensitive classifiers.
problem Avoid risky misclassification in error-critical applications.
method Learning an ensemble of cost-sensitive classifiers.
result Improved classification accuracy and flexibility in loss selection.
Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However, without proper tuning, this technique implies a high rejection rate. Several methods h…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to learn synthetic likelihoods on simulated data -- both local emulators which app…
New algorithms reduce rejection sampling complexity for shape-constrained distributions.
problem Generating exact samples from shape-constrained distributions efficiently.
method Sublinear query complexity algorithms for rejection sampling.
result Sublinear complexity algorithms for sampling from shape-constrained distributions.
Testing for conditional independence is a core aspect of constraint-based causal discovery. Although commonly used tests are perfect in theory, they often fail to reject independence in practice, especially when conditioning on multiple variables. We focus on discrete data and propose a new test based on the notion of …
Proposes a method combining CNFs and rejection-resampling for sampling from unnormalized densities.
problem Sampling from unnormalized probability densities, especially multimodal ones.
method Combines continuous normalizing flows with rejection-resampling steps based on importance weights.
result The method improves sampling accuracy and performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Learning with rejection (LWR) allows development of machine learning systems with the ability to discard low confidence decisions generated by a prediction model. That is, just like human experts, LWR allows machine models to abstain from generating a prediction when reliability of the prediction is expected to be low.…
We propose Generative Well-intentioned Networks (GWINs), a novel framework for increasing the accuracy of certainty-based, closed-world classifiers. A conditional generative network recovers the distribution of observations that the classifier labels correctly with high certainty. We introduce a reject option to the cl…
Active learning is an important technique to reduce the number of labeled examples in supervised learning. Active learning for binary classification has been well addressed in machine learning. However, active learning of the reject option classifier remains unaddressed. In this paper, we propose novel algorithms for a…