A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.
Financial econometrics has become an increasingly popular research field. In this paper we review a few parametric and nonparametric models and methods used in this area. After introducing several widely used continuous-time and discrete-time models, we study in detail dependence structures of discrete samples, includi…
We design simple screening tests to automatically discard data samples in empirical risk minimization without losing optimization guarantees. We derive loss functions that produce dual objectives with a sparse solution. We also show how to regularize convex losses to ensure such a dual sparsity-inducing property, and p…
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are based on a joint regression for the Value at Risk and the ES, which allows for dif…
In this paper we suggest a modification of the regression-based variance reduction approach recently proposed in Belomestny et al. This modification is based on the stratification technique and allows for a further significant variance reduction. The performance of the proposed approach is illustrated by several numeri…
Purpose: Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a quantitative, non-invasive alternative to perfusion imaging with contrast agents. Fixing values of certain model parameters in traditional ASL, which actually vary from region to region, may introduce bias in perfusion estimates. Adopting Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting (MRF…
In this paper we propose a novel dual regression-based approach for pricing American options. This approach reduces the complexity of the nested Monte Carlo method and has especially simple form for time discretised diffusion processes. We analyse the complexity of the proposed approach both in the case of fixed and in…
In this paper, we consider a framework adapting the notion of cointegration when two asset prices are generated by a driftless Itô-semimartingale featuring jumps with infinite activity, observed regularly and synchronously at high frequency. We develop a regression based estimation of the cointegrated relations method …
In this work, we propose an algorithm to price American options by directly solving the dual minimization problem introduced by Rogers. Our approach relies on approximating the set of uniformly square integrable martingales by a finite dimensional Wiener chaos expansion. Then, we use a sample average approximation tech…
Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing via two-stage regression
POTEC tackles off-policy learning in large action spaces, improving effectiveness.
Learning using privileged information (LUPI) is a powerful heterogenous feature space machine learning framework that allows a machine learning model to learn from highly informative or privileged features which are available during training only to generate test predictions using input space features which are availab…
Identifying the location of a disturbance and its magnitude is an important component for stable operation of power systems. We study the problem of localizing and estimating a disturbance in the interconnected power system. We take a model-free approach to this problem by using frequency data from generators. Specific…
Unified framework for testing deep learning models with concept activation vectors.
This paper introduces a new correction scheme to a conventional regression-based event study method: a topological machine-learning approach with a self-organizing map (SOM).We use this new scheme to analyze a major market event in Japan and find that the factors of abnormal stock returns can be easily can be easily id…
Kriging is an efficient machine-learning tool, which allows to obtain an approximate response of an investigated phenomenon on the whole parametric space. Adaptive schemes provide a the ability to guide the experiment yielding new sample point positions to enrich the metamodel. Herein a novel adaptive scheme called Mon…
In this paper, a multi-layer architecture (in a hierarchical fashion) by stacking various Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) based Auto-Encoder for one-class classification is proposed and is referred as MKOC. MKOC has many layers of Auto-Encoders to project the input features into new feature space and the last layer was r…
Surrogate models improve chemical process equipment design and optimization.
In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is still under progress and we are examining the results and comparing with the prev…
The study compares VaR and ES models for tail risk of electricity futures, finding AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) with Student-t distribution best.
Meta-learning improves predictions with generalized ridge regression in high-dimensional settings.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each backward induction step by adding new basis functions based on previously estimat…
E-QRGMM accelerates uncertainty quantification in simulations.
Study numerical methods for singular FBSDEs with degenerate forward component.
A new robust GP regression algorithm that trims outliers improves model accuracy.
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
Regression learns Mori-Zwanzig operators for dynamical systems.
The generalized linear model (GLM) plays a key role in regression analyses. In high-dimensional data, the sparse GLM has been used but it is not robust against outliers. Recently, the robust methods have been proposed for the specific example of the sparse GLM. Among them, we focus on the robust and sparse linear regre…
Optimizes calibration error estimators for better classifier trustworthiness.
Quantum-assisted Gaussian process speeds up data regression.
Enhanced TSFMs improve time series forecasting accuracy and reliability.
BeMF improves recommendation reliability in recommender systems.
A new inference method using regression and batched discrepancies.
We consider a class of discrete time stochastic control problems motivated by some financial applications. We use a pathwise stochastic control approach to provide a dual formulation of the problem. This enables us to develop a numerical technique for obtaining an estimate of the value function which improves on purely…
PCR-LE achieves optimal rates for nonparametric regression over Sobolev spaces.
This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation.…
Support vector machines (SVMs) are special kernel based methods and belong to the most successful learning methods since more than a decade. SVMs can informally be described as a kind of regularized M-estimators for functions and have demonstrated their usefulness in many complicated real-life problems. During the last…
Guided adaptive shrinkage uses co-data to improve feature selection in genomic studies.
Waldo method constructs valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference.
Dividend yields have been widely used in previous research to relate stock market valuations to cash flow fundamentals. However, this approach relies on the assumption that dividend yields are stationary. Due to the failure to reject the hypothesis of a unit root in the classical dividend-price ratio for the US stock m…
The kernel null-space technique and its regression-based formulation (called one-class kernel spectral regression, a.k.a. OC-KSR) is known to be an effective and computationally attractive one-class classification framework. Despite its outstanding performance, the applicability of kernel null-space method is limited d…
Speeds up complex portfolio exposure calculations.
New framework uses time series features for predicting streamflow in ungauged areas.
We introduce new variants of classical regression-based algorithms for optimal stopping problems based on computation of regression coefficients by Monte Carlo approximation of the corresponding inner products instead of the least-squares error functional. Coupled with new proposals for simulation of the underlyi…
Paper proposes efficient training for normalizing flows in Boltzmann generators.
Disease progression modeling (DPM) using longitudinal data is a challenging machine learning task. Existing DPM algorithms neglect temporal dependencies among measurements, make parametric assumptions about biomarker trajectories, do not model multiple biomarkers jointly, and need an alignment of subjects' trajectories…