New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.
problem Challenges in CI testing with misspecified models.
method Proposes new approximations and upper bounds for testing errors of regression-based CI tests.
result Introduces the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT) robust against misspecified inductive biases.
Proposes FARM model combining latent factor and sparse regression.
problem Testing adequacy of latent factor and sparse regression models.
method Factor Augmented sparse linear Regression Model (FARM) with FabTest and ANOVA type tests.
result Model robustness and effectiveness validated through experiments.
A new kernel-based CI test improves on existing methods.
problem Testing conditional independence (CI) in a broad range of dependencies.
method Regression-model-agnostic kernel-based CI test using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result GKCM outperforms state-of-the-art CI tests in simulations.
New tests for binary classification regression functions without distribution assumptions.
problem Testing regression functions in binary classification without distributional assumptions.
method Conditional kernel mean embeddings and resampling-based framework.
result Distribution-free hypothesis tests with exact type I error control.
In recent years, there has been considerable theoretical development regarding variable selection consistency of penalized regression techniques, such as the lasso. However, there has been relatively little work on quantifying the uncertainty in these selection procedures. In this paper, we propose a new method for inf…
The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.
Paper develops statistical tests for covariance matrix regression on manifold.
problem Regression with random covariance matrices in Fréchet space.
method Develops Wasserstein F-tests for Bures-Wasserstein manifold.
result Asymptotic null distribution and power of the test.
Test partial effects in Frechet regression on Bures-Wasserstein manifolds.
problem Assessing partial effects in Frechet regression on complex manifolds.
method Sample splitting strategy to estimate covariance matrices and test statistic convergence.
result The test statistic converges to a weighted mixture of chi squared components.
Hypothesis tests in models whose dimension far exceeds the sample size can be formulated much like the classical studentized tests only after the initial bias of estimation is removed successfully. The theory of debiased estimators can be developed in the context of quantile regression models for a fixed quantile value…
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are based on a joint regression for the Value at Risk and the ES, which allows for dif…
Bayes-optimal learning of deep random networks with Gaussian weights is studied.
problem Learning a target function corresponding to a deep, extensive-width, non-linear neural network with random Gaussian weights.
method Closed-form expressions for Bayes-optimal test error, ridge regression, kernel and random features regression are computed.
result Optimally regularized ridge regression and kernel regression achieve Bayes-optimal performances, while logistic loss yields a near-optimal test error for classification.
Tests for equivariance in non-parametric regression models.
problem Detecting false assumptions of symmetry in regression models.
method Develops tests for G-equivariance independent of the model. result Confidence in using equivariant models when symmetry is unknown.
Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing via two-stage regression
problem Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing
method BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation)
result Better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors
Develops abstention procedure for nonparametric regression via variance testing.
problem Prediction with selective abstention in error-critical machine learning.
method Nonparametric heteroskedastic regression via testing hypothesis on conditional variance.
result Non-asymptotic risk bounds and convergence regimes for the estimator.
Derives ideal train/test split for ridge regression in large data limit.
problem Finding optimal train/test split for ridge regression in large data scenarios.
method Mathematical derivation of optimal train/test split, considering ridge tuning parameter and asymptotic behavior.
result The optimal train/test split for ridge regression in the large data limit depends weakly on the ridge tuning parameter alpha.
Unified framework for sequence models using test-time regression.
problem Designing efficient sequence models with associative memory.
method Formalizing associative recall as regression over input tokens, deriving various sequence models.
result Clarifies the effectiveness of query-key normalization in softmax attention and offers new generalizations.
Securely trains fair models using homomorphic encryption.
problem Protecting sensitive features while testing model fairness.
method Fully homomorphic encryption for training and testing.
result Practical application to adult income data set.
Paper proposes a statistical test for transfer learning in linear regression.
problem Theoretical framework for parameter transfer in linear regression.
method Developed a statistical test to predict transfer quality.
result The test can predict if a fine-tuned model has lower prediction risk.
New tests compare regression functions using machine learning, overcoming dimensionality issues.
problem Comparing regression functions in high-dimensional settings.
method Generalized kernel-based conditional mean dependence, machine learning methods for flexible estimation.
result Established asymptotic properties of tests under fixed and high-dimensional regimes.
Sharp bounds derived for test error of finite-rank kernel ridge regression.
problem Loose bounds on test error for finite-rank kernels in machine learning.
method Sharp non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds for KRR test error.
result Tighter bounds on finite-rank KRR test error, valid for any regularization parameters.
Bayesian method selects important covariates in modal regression.
problem Bayesian modal regression with heavy-tailed responses.
method Expectation-maximization algorithm for parameter estimation; test statistic for variable selection.
result Efficacy of the proposed method in identifying important covariates.
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.
Paper extends Chernoff sampling for active testing and parameter estimation, improving neural network and regression models.
problem Reducing sample complexity in hypothesis testing and model parameter estimation.
method Developed an extension of Chernoff sampling for active learning and parameter estimation.
result Non-asymptotic bounds for sample complexity and estimation error in active learning.
The paper tests the credibility of public and private surveys using linear regression and differential privacy.
problem Ensuring the validity of data analysis results from sample surveys using linear regression.
method Designing an algorithm to test the credibility of surveys and extending it to handle LDP.
result The algorithm achieves optimal estimation error bound for ℓ1 linear regression and reduces sample complexity. The paper tackles high-dimensional mixed linear regression with unknown parameters and proposes methods for estimation, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing.
problem High-dimensional mixed linear regression with unknown parameters and covariance structure.
method Iterative high-dimensional EM algorithm for estimating regression vectors, debiased estimators for individual coordinates, and large-scale multiple testing procedure.
result Asymptotic normality of debiased estimators and FDR control for hypothesis testing.
Paper develops new spot regression estimators using candlesticks for asset pricing.
problem Estimation of spot betas in asset pricing and risk management.
method Develops a new estimation and inference framework for spot regressions using high-frequency candlesticks.
result The proposed candlestick-based estimators reduce estimation risk and achieve higher power in hypothesis testing.
Paper presents a machine learning method to improve significance tests for misspecified linear models.
problem Misspecification of linear assumptions in social science models leads to inaccurate significance levels.
method Apply machine learning to fit ground truth function, calculate linear approximation, and adjust the estimator.
result The method significantly outperforms linear regression for non-linear ground truth functions.
Optimal AFs minimize RFR test error and sensitivity.
problem Finding optimal AFs for RFR to minimize test error and sensitivity.
method Closed-form solution for AFs minimizing test error and sensitivity under different functional parsimony.
result Optimal AFs can be linear, saturated linear, or Hermite polynomial expressions.
New GP model estimates piecewise continuous functions.
problem Piecewise continuous regression functions in scientific and engineering applications.
method Local Gaussian process model with partitioned local data and joint estimation of boundaries.
result Superior performance over conventional GP models in estimating piecewise regression functions.
Proposes a robust method for predicting missing outcomes in covariate shift adaptation.
problem Predicting missing outcomes in test data with covariate shift.
method Doubly robust estimator for covariate shift adaptation via importance weighting, incorporating an additional estimator for the regression function.
result Shows robustness against density-ratio estimation errors, maintaining consistency if either estimator is consistent.
Shape-constrained symbolic regression improves model extrapolation with prior knowledge.
problem Improving model extrapolation with prior knowledge in symbolic regression.
method Shape-constrained symbolic regression using evolutionary algorithms with interval arithmetic.
result Models with shape constraints have improved extrapolation but lower accuracy on test sets.
New model leads to optimal test loss in sparse linear regression.
problem Sparse linear regression with low test loss despite interpolating training data.
method Developed a new parametrization of the model that combines benefits of ℓ1 and ℓ2 norms.
result Training via gradient descent leads to an interpolator with near-optimal test loss.
Study characterizes training and test risks for MAP regression with Gaussian priors.
problem Understanding high-dimensional behavior of regularized linear regression with informative priors.
method Maximum a posteriori (MAP) regression with Gaussian priors, using random matrix theory.
result Closed-form risk formulas reveal the bias-variance-prior tradeoff and explain double descent.
We find a deterministic equivalent for random feature regression's test error, independent of feature map dimension.
problem Understanding the generalization performance of random feature ridge regression.
method We derive a deterministic equivalent for the test error of RFRR under a concentration property, showing it can be approximated by a closed-form expression dependent on feature map eigenvalues.
result Our approximation guarantee is non-asymptotic, multiplicative, and independent of the feature map dimension, providing a tight result for the smallest number of features achieving optimal minimax error rate.
Kernel regression is a popular non-parametric fitting technique. It aims at learning a function which estimates the targets for test inputs as precise as possible. Generally, the function value for a test input is estimated by a weighted average of the surrounding training examples. The weights are typically computed b…
Over-parameterized CNNs show U-shaped test risk with depth increase.
problem Understanding the impact of depth on test risk in over-parameterized CNNs.
method Empirical image classification experiments and linear regression framework.
result Test risk is U-shaped with increasing depth in over-parameterized CNNs.
Optimal data split ratio is sqrt(p):1 for linear regression.
problem Lack of clear guidance on optimal training/testing data split ratio.
method Showed that optimal ratio is sqrt(p):1 for linear regression.
result Optimal ratio for training/testing split is sqrt(p):1.
Robust testing of sparse signals in corrupted data.
problem Testing the norm of high-dimensional sparse signals in the presence of arbitrary corruption.
method Two observation models: i.i.d. samples from N(θ,Id) and sparse linear regression model. result The robust testing requires significantly more samples than non-robust testing.
The package High-dimensional Metrics (\Rpackage{hdm}) is an evolving collection of statistical methods for estimation and quantification of uncertainty in high-dimensional approximately sparse models. It focuses on providing confidence intervals and significance testing for (possibly many) low-dimensional subcomponents…
In this paper we explore different regression models based on Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR). CLR aims to find the partition of the data into k clusters, such that linear regressions fitted to each of the clusters minimize overall mean squared error on the whole data. The main obstacle preventing to use found re…
New formulas for feature importance tests in regression models.
problem Identifying important features in regression models.
method Established formulas for AUC criteria and proposed alternative metrics.
result Integrated Gradients (IG) performs nearly as well as Kernel SHAP (KS) but is faster.
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
problem Analyzing and predicting relative spreads between economies in fixed income markets.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and kernel PCA.
result The new model outperforms the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model in explaining relative spreads.
This paper aims to solve a basic problem in distributed statistical inference: how many machines can we use in parallel computing? In kernel ridge regression, we address this question in two important settings: nonparametric estimation and hypothesis testing. Specifically, we find a range for the number of machines und…
Improved CRT for sparse logistic regression in high dimensions.
problem Accurate inference in high-dimensional sparse logistic regression.
method Variable-distillation and decorrelation steps in CRT-logit.
result CRT-logit provides a more powerful solution with theoretical guarantees.
Alternative hypothesis tests for class-conditional noise using local maximum likelihood.
problem Assessing label noise in supervised learning datasets.
method Proposes hypothesis tests based on local maximum likelihood estimation for nonparametric logistic regression.
result Shows improved applicability and flexibility of the proposed tests compared to parametric approaches.
In analyzing high-dimensional models, sparsity of the model parameter is a common but often undesirable assumption. In this paper, we study the following two-sample testing problem: given two samples generated by two high-dimensional linear models, we aim to test whether the regression coefficients of the two linear mo…
Improves test set performance and reduces out-of-sample disappointment for unstable models.
problem Ensuring strong test set performance via cross-validation for unstable models.
method Nested k-fold cross-validation with hyperparameter selection based on a weighted sum of cross-validation metric and model stability measure.
result Improves out-of-sample MSE for sparse ridge regression and CART by 4% and 2% respectively, compared to k-fold cross-validation.
Simplified kernel ridge regression with a conservation law.
problem Understanding the test risk and generalization of kernel ridge regression.
method Identification of a conservation law that limits KRR's learning ability, leading to simplified expressions for test risk.
result Transparency in test risk expressions through the conserved quantity in the kernel eigenbasis.