A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops an MS-inspired algorithm for regression mode finding and space partitioning.
The paper improves GP regression for sparse sensor data in structural mode shape reconstruction.
Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) yields a linear, approximate model of a system's dynamics that is built from data. We seek to reduce the order of this model by identifying a reduced set of modes that best fit the output. We adopt a model selection algorithm from statistics and machine learning known as Least Angle Reg…
Mode decomposition is a prototypical pattern recognition problem that can be addressed from the (a priori distinct) perspectives of numerical approximation, statistical inference and deep learning. Could its analysis through these combined perspectives be used as a Rosetta stone for deciphering mechanisms at play in de…
The paper deals with regression problems, in which the nonsmooth target is assumed to switch between different operating modes. Specifically, piecewise smooth (PWS) regression considers target functions switching deterministically via a partition of the input space, while switching regression considers arbitrary switch…
We propose an estimation method for the conditional mode when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. In the proposed method, we first estimate the conditional density by solving quantile regressions multiple times. We then estimate the conditional mode by finding the maximum of the estimated conditional density…
Quick Shift is a popular mode-seeking and clustering algorithm. We present finite sample statistical consistency guarantees for Quick Shift on mode and cluster recovery under mild distributional assumptions. We then apply our results to construct a consistent modal regression algorithm.
Enhances tensor regression for interpretability and performance.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
Proposes hinge-Wasserstein to improve uncertainty estimation in regression tasks.
The most direct way to express arbitrary dependencies in datasets is to estimate the joint distribution and to apply afterwards the argmax-function to obtain the mode of the corresponding conditional distribution. This method is in practice difficult, because it requires a global optimization of a complicated function,…
We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and numerical benchmarks.…
New insights into correntropy-based regression reveal robustness and unified approaches.
Time-lagged autoencoders (TAEs) have been proposed as a deep learning regression-based approach to the discovery of slow modes in dynamical systems. However, a rigorous analysis of nonlinear TAEs remains lacking. In this work, we discuss the capabilities and limitations of TAEs through both theoretical and numerical an…
Modal regression is aimed at estimating the global mode (i.e., global maximum) of the conditional density function of the output variable given input variables, and has led to regression methods robust against heavy-tailed or skewed noises. The conditional mode is often estimated through maximization of the modal regre…
There are many important regression problems in real-world brain-computer interface (BCI) applications, e.g., driver drowsiness estimation from EEG signals. This paper considers offline analysis: given a pool of unlabeled EEG epochs recorded during driving, how do we optimally select a small number of them to label so …
Stacking improves inference for multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions.
For multi-valued functions---such as when the conditional distribution on targets given the inputs is multi-modal---standard regression approaches are not always desirable because they provide the conditional mean. Modal regression algorithms address this issue by instead finding the conditional mode(s). Most, however,…
Optimal kernel improves estimation accuracy in modal statistical methods.
In industrial systems, certain process variables that need to be monitored for detecting faults are often difficult or impossible to measure. Soft sensor techniques are widely used to estimate such difficult-to-measure process variables from easy-to-measure ones. Soft sensor modeling requires training datasets includin…
Recently, a number of statistical problems have found an unexpected solution by inspecting them through a "modal point of view". These include classical tasks such as clustering or regression. This has led to a renewed interest in estimation and inference for the mode. This paper offers an extensive survey of the tradi…
Paper unifies subspace identification and DMD for dynamical systems.
We derive analytical expressions for the generalization performance of kernel regression as a function of the number of training samples using theoretical methods from Gaussian processes and statistical physics. Our expressions apply to wide neural networks due to an equivalence between training them and kernel regress…
ERDMD discovers sparse, nonuniformly timed DMD models from chaotic attractors.
Modal regression estimates the local modes of the distribution of given , instead of the mean, as in the usual regression sense, and can hence reveal important structure missed by usual regression methods. We study a simple nonparametric method for modal regression, based on a kernel density estimate (KDE) of …
A natural way to characterize the cluster structure of a dataset is by finding regions containing a high density of data. This can be done in a nonparametric way with a kernel density estimate, whose modes and hence clusters can be found using mean-shift algorithms. We describe the theory and practice behind clustering…
Spectral decomposition of the Koopman operator is attracting attention as a tool for the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems. Dynamic mode decomposition is a popular numerical algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis; however, we often need to prepare nonlinear observables manually according to the underlying dynami…
HHT feature generation enhances financial time series forecasting.
Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we derive the approximation error of VB in terms of mean, mode, variance, predictive den…
This technical note extends recent results on the computational complexity of globally minimizing the error of piecewise-affine models to the related problem of minimizing the error of switching linear regression models. In particular, we show that, on the one hand the problem is NP-hard, but on the other hand, it admi…
The paper introduces new estimators for multivariate functions using Fourier methods.
Study uses neural processes to predict and classify crack patterns in moving disks.
The paper analyzes the joint dynamics of prices and order flow in electronic order books.
Active learning aims to reduce labeling efforts by selectively asking humans to annotate the most important data points from an unlabeled pool and is an example of human-machine interaction. Though active learning has been extensively researched for classification and ranking problems, it is relatively understudied for…
A two-layer classifier improves smartphone transportation mode recognition.
The Morse-Smale complex of a function decomposes the sample space into cells where is increasing or decreasing. When applied to nonparametric density estimation and regression, it provides a way to represent, visualize, and compare multivariate functions. In this paper, we present some statistical results on es…
Transformers can emulate various algorithms by prompting, proving universality.
The paper compares theoretical and empirical performance of imputation methods for missing data.
New method renormalizes neural network Gaussian processes to identify learnable vs. unlearnable modes.
Pitch or fundamental frequency (f0) extraction is a fundamental problem studied extensively for its potential applications in speech and clinical applications. In literature, explicit mode specific (modal speech or singing voice or emotional/ expressive speech or noisy speech) signal processing and deep learning f0 ext…
Study uses regression and ML for COVID-19 mortality forecasting.
Revisits online Laplace methods for neural networks, showing they are sound under certain conditions.
Proposes a differentiable LSE-ICNN for modeling multi-well potentials.
Periodic surfaces have a limited number of bending modes, equal to their membrane modes.
Sparse-mode DMD disambiguates local and global modes in spatiotemporal data.
Motivated by advantages of current-mode design, this brief contribution explores the implementation of weight matrices in neuromemristive systems via current-mode memristor crossbar circuits. After deriving theoretical results for the range and distribution of weights in the current-mode design, it is shown that any we…
In this work we present a new method of black-box optimization and constraint satisfaction. Existing algorithms that have attempted to solve this problem are unable to consider multiple modes, and are not able to adapt to changes in environment dynamics. To address these issues, we developed a modified Cross-Entropy Me…
For dynamical systems that can be modelled as asymptotically stable linear systems forced by Gaussian noise, this paper develops methods to infer or estimate their modes from observations in real time. The modes can be real or complex. For a real mode, we wish to infer its damping rate and mode shape. For a complex mod…