A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Framework uses hindsight regret to audit marketing budget allocations.
There is, among the economist ecosystem, the idea of virtuous public spending as a form of promotion of economic growth. If we think on the way GDP is measured, it is not possible to get that conclusion because it becomes circular: measuring the money flow obviously will detect directly the public spending but always m…
New framework guides resource usage to achieve sublinear regret in adversarial settings.
This paper improves credit line impact analysis by considering spending as a distribution.
Investors adjust spending based on a social norm, spending less during losses and more during gains.
The effects of saving and spending patterns on holding time distribution of money are investigated based on the ideal gas-like models. We show the steady-state distribution obeys an exponential law when the saving factor is set uniformly, and a power law when the saving factor is set diversely. The power distribution c…
Automating the customer analytics process is crucial for companies that manage distinct customer bases. In such data-rich and dynamic environments, visualization plays a key role in understanding events of interest. These ideas have led to the popularity of analytics dashboards, yet academic research has paid scant att…
Optimizes retirement spending and asset allocation to maximize withdrawals and shortfall.
Study optimal consumption for loss-averse agents considering past spending peaks.
This paper solves the problem of optimal dynamic consumption, investment, and healthcare spending with isoelastic utility, when natural mortality grows exponentially to reflect Gompertz' law and investment opportunities are constant. Healthcare slows the natural growth of mortality, indirectly increasing utility from c…
ATLAS uses LLMs to adaptively trade by optimizing prompts and coordinating agents.
Study optimal healthcare spending under Epstein-Zin preferences for longevity.
During the Great Recession, Democrats in the United States argued that government spending could be utilized to "grease the wheels" of the economy in order to create wealth and to increase employment; Republicans, on the other hand, contended that government spending is wasteful and discouraged investment, thereby incr…
Estimates causal effect of managed care plans on NYC Medicaid spending.
Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and demographic factors. Furthermore crisis may trigger different behaviors which re…
The distribution of health care payments to insurance plans has substantial consequences for social policy. Risk adjustment formulas predict spending in health insurance markets in order to provide fair benefits and health care coverage for all enrollees, regardless of their health status. Unfortunately, current risk a…
Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the world: for many countries it represents the single largest product in their export basket. However, it is a product difficult to chart: "exporters" of tourism do not ship it abroad, but they welcome importers inside the country. Current research uses socia…
Elman-type RNNs converge to globally optimal solutions in the mean-field regime.
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
We show that if Teichmüller geodesics spend enough time in the thick part of moduli space, they display CAT(-1)-type properties. In particular, they exponentially contract along strongly stable leaves. As an application we prove two closing lemmas.
We compute the asymptotic growth rate of the number N(C, R) of closed geodesics of length less than R in a connected component C of a stratum of quadratic differentials. We prove that for any 0 < θ< 1, the number of closed geodesics of length at most R that spend at least θ-fraction of time outside of a compact subset …
A major challenge in Bayesian Optimization is the boundary issue (Swersky, 2017) where an algorithm spends too many evaluations near the boundary of its search space. In this paper, we propose BOCK, Bayesian Optimization with Cylindrical Kernels, whose basic idea is to transform the ball geometry of the search space us…
Inpatient care is a large share of total health care spending, making analysis of inpatient utilization patterns an important part of understanding what drives health care spending growth. Common features of inpatient utilization measures include zero inflation, over-dispersion, and skewness, all of which complicate st…
I studied what role the US stock markets and money markets have possibly played in the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) of the United States from the year 1959 to the year 2001, Gross Private Domestic Investment refers to the total amount of investment spending by businesses and firms located within the borders…
For the first time ever, we analyze a unique public procurement database, which includes information about a number of bidders for a contract, a final price, an identification of a winner and an identification of a contracting authority for each of more than 40,000 public procurements in the Czech Republic between 2006…
Optimizes marketing strategies with practical constraints.
Bitcoin mining costs remain stable despite increased activity.
The paper analyzes optimal consumption with past spending maximum as a reference.
We study investment strategy in different models of financial markets, where the investors cannot reach a perfect knowledge about available assets. The investor spends a certain effort to get information; this allows him to better choose the investment strategy, and puts a selective pressure upon assets. The best strat…
DE is a new exploration method that limits resource usage based on expected improvement and surprise.
We calculate the asymptotic average rate at which a generic geodesic on a finite area hyperbolic 2-orbifold returns to an embedded disc on the surface, as well as the average amount of time it spends in the disc during each visit. This includes the case where the center of the disc is a cone point.
The paper optimizes retirement spending considering habit formation and pension income.
Paper studies optimal investing for retirees with risk constraints.
Study improves posterior inference in neural processes with limited data.
We solve a lifecycle model in which the consumer's chronological age does not move in lockstep with calendar time. Instead, biological age increases at a stochastic non-linear rate in time like a broken clock that might occasionally move backwards. In other words, biological age could actually decline. Our paper is ins…
The problem of feature disentanglement has been explored in the literature, for the purpose of image and video processing and text analysis. State-of-the-art methods for disentangling feature representations rely on the presence of many labeled samples. In this work, we present a novel method for disentangling factors …
Paper proposes transparent insurance models for PBMs.
New findings show privacy affects generalization error in a non-monotonic way.
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
An important metric of users' satisfaction and engagement within on-line streaming services is the user session length, i.e. the amount of time they spend on a service continuously without interruption. Being able to predict this value directly benefits the recommendation and ad pacing contexts in music and video strea…
The possibility of using player engagement predictions to profile high spending video game users is explored. In particular, individual-player survival curves in terms of days after first login, game level reached and accumulated playtime are used to classify players into different groups. Lifetime value predictions fo…
The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequence is cost overruns, benefi…
Study analyzes Hotelling-type tensor deflation for spiked tensors, providing insights into signal and noise.
Proposes a variational autoencoder for long-term customer revenue forecasting.
In an informal way, a number of thoughts on the financial crisis 2008 are presented from a physicist's viewpoint, considering the problem as a nonergodicity transition of a spin-glass type of system. Some tentative suggestions concerning the way out of the crisis are also discussed, concerning Keynesian "deficit spendi…
Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with multivariate Gaussian priors. Its key properties are: 1) it has simple, generic c…
Develops a new model to track financial market interconnectedness over time.
Quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum, but only to spending and not mining.