The paper introduces a method for forecasting corporate sales growth using multiple reference variables.
problem Forecasting corporate sales growth with multiple reference variables.
method Reference class selection using rank-based algorithms and principal components analysis for data dimension reduction.
result Dimension reduced variables with past sales growth rates and operating margins perform well in forecasting.
A new method detects distribution shifts faster than existing CTMs.
problem Detecting distribution shifts in data streams with contamination issues.
method Uses a fixed reference dataset to compare each new sample, avoiding contamination.
result Detects distribution shifts faster and more reliably than standard CTMs.
Study validates ML-UQ calibration statistics using simulated reference values.
problem Validation of ML-UQ calibration statistics is lacking due to lack of predefined reference values.
method Proposed validation workflow using simulated reference values derived from synthetic datasets.
result Some statistics, like CC and ENCE, are overly sensitive to generative distribution choice.
This work bridges outlier and drift detection by comparing inputs to a part of the reference distribution.
problem Monitoring machine learning models to ensure they operate within their validated distribution.
method Comparing a set of inputs to a chosen part of the reference distribution.
result A new approach that bridges outlier detection and drift detection.
A new method samples from multi-modal distributions without hyperparameter tuning.
problem Sampling from multi-modal distributions is challenging and requires tuning hyperparameters.
method Learned Reference-based Diffusion Sampler (LRDS) that learns a reference model on high-density regions and uses it to train a diffusion-based sampler.
result LRDS best exploits prior knowledge on multi-modal distributions compared to competing algorithms.
Consider a reference Markov process with initial distribution π0 and transition kernels {Mt}t∈[1:T], for some T∈N. Assume that you are given distribution πT, which is not equal to the marginal distribution of the reference process at time T. In this scenario, Schrödinger addressed t…
Leveraging reference-only samples for two-sample testing under size asymmetry
problem Two-sample testing under size imbalance
method Adaptive aggregation of reference-dependent representations
result Strong performance with type I error control
Recently, researchers proposed various low-precision gradient compression, for efficient communication in large-scale distributed optimization. Based on these work, we try to reduce the communication complexity from a new direction. We pursue an ideal bijective mapping between two spaces of gradient distribution, so th…
New method calibrates reference distributions for bounded support.
problem Lack of principled method for bounded-support statistical reference distributions.
method Formulated maximum entropy on projective space of nonnegative measures.
result Prescribed acceptance region uniquely determines deformation parameter.
The paper proposes a method to improve sales forecasts by selecting optimal reference classes.
problem Improving forecasts of sales growth exposed to behavioural bias.
method Finding optimal reference classes for each company based on specific predictors and matching forecast distributions to actual sales.
result The past operating margins are strong predictors for future sales distributions.
ASK-NN detects distribution drifts in LLM-generated text.
problem Hallucinations and artificial text in LLM-generated outputs.
method Asymmetric two-sample test based on directed k-nearest-neighbor graph.
result ASK-NN is competitive with baselines on various benchmarks.
The paper proposes a method to learn evolving multivariate distributions from sample paths.
problem Learning the temporal evolution of multivariate densities from sample data.
method Normalizing flows to construct time-dependent mappings.
result The method can approximate evolving probability density functions from observed data.
A new approach is presented to describe the change in the statistics of the log return distribution of financial data as a function of the timescale. To this purpose a measure is introduced, which quantifies the distance of a considered distribution to a reference distribution. The existence of a small timescale regime…
A new update rule for deep reinforcement learning reduces learning variance and variance in reference signals.
problem Learning variance and incorrect reference signals in deep reinforcement learning.
method t-soft update method inspired by student-t distribution, which reduces extreme updates and accelerates similar updates.
result The t-soft update method outperforms conventional methods in terms of return and variance in PyBullet robotics simulations.
New method generates synthetic time series paths with more flexibility.
problem Restrictions in generating synthetic paths using Brownian reference.
method Introduces Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges (TR-SBTS) for time series generation.
result Generates synthetic paths with more flexibility in stochastic volatility and correlated noise.
This paper describes a reference architecture for self-maintaining systems that can learn continually, as data arrives. In environments where data evolves, we need architectures that manage Machine Learning (ML) models in production, adapt to shifting data distributions, cope with outliers, retrain when necessary, and …
Proposes QQE for transforming and embedding data distributions.
problem Transforming and embedding data distributions for better representation or visualization.
method Quantile-Quantile Embedding (QQE) using quantile-quantile plot concept.
result QQE allows for better discrimination of classes in some cases.
BM2 learns Schrödinger bridges using neural networks.
problem Learning dynamic transport maps between two distributions.
method Coupled Bridge Matching (BM2) with neural networks. result Preliminary theoretical analysis and numerical experiments show BM2's effectiveness. Researchers develop a method to infer reference measures from observed functionals.
problem Tackles the challenge of identifying or recovering a reference measure from observed functionals.
method Uses the property of law-invariant functionals defining lower or upper supporting sets in dual spaces of signed measures.
result Illustrates the methodology with examples and develops a modification for Value-at-Risk.
REGS samples from unnormalized distributions using gradient flow and neural networks.
problem Sampling from unnormalized distributions with high accuracy and efficiency.
method REGS is a particle method that iteratively transforms samples from a reference distribution to match an unnormalized target distribution using Wasserstein gradient flow and neural networks.
result REGS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sampling from challenging multimodal distributions and real datasets.
We derive asset pricing formula for markets with incomplete information and subjective views.
problem Asset pricing in markets with informational imperfections and subjective investor beliefs.
method Closed-form market equilibrium formula based on Merton's model, non-linear system of equations, conditional posterior distribution.
result Derivation of market reference model for excess returns under random shadow-costs.
Improved local feature attributions using neighbourhood reference distributions.
problem Misleading results from global population in local model behaviour.
method Formulation of neighbourhood reference distributions and self-normalised importance sampling.
result Neighbourhood Shapley values provide meaningful sparse feature attributions.
A new method called TemperFlow tackles multimodality in sampling from unnormalized distributions.
problem Sampling from unnormalized distributions with isolated modes.
method TemperFlow learns a sequence of tempered distributions to progressively approach the target distribution.
result TemperFlow overcomes the limitations of existing methods and achieves superior performance.
New method denoises images without clean reference using Tweedie distributions.
problem Image denoising without clean reference images.
method Combining Tweedie distributions, Noise2Score, and saddle point approximation.
result General closed-form denoising formula for various noise distributions.
GLIME improves LIME's stability and local fidelity.
problem LIME's instability and low local fidelity.
method Introducing GLIME, an enhanced framework that derives an equivalent formulation of LIME with faster convergence and improved stability.
result GLIME generates explanations with higher local fidelity and is independent of reference choice.
Study measures gender bias in machine translation using multiple reference points.
problem Measuring and identifying gender bias in machine translation.
method Used an optimal non-biased translator, reference points from occupational statistics and survey.
result Found bias against both genders, but more against women, and found occupations have a greater effect than adjectives.
We discuss several uses of blockchain (and, more generally, distributed ledger) technologies outside of cryptocurrencies with a pragmatic view. We mostly focus on three areas: the role of coin economies for what we refer to as data malls (specialized data marketplaces); data provenance (a historical record of data and …
A framework for robust exploration in reinforcement learning under ambiguity.
problem Optimal stopping under ambiguity in reinforcement learning.
method Continuous-time robust reinforcement learning framework using g-expectation and backward stochastic differential equations. result Constructs a robust exploratory stopping time approximating the optimal stopping time under ambiguity.
Neural Local Wasserstein Regression models distribution-on-distribution regression with flexible, localized transport maps.
problem Estimating distribution-on-distribution regression with global optimal transport maps or linearization limitations.
method Proposes Neural Local Wasserstein Regression, a flexible nonparametric framework using locally defined transport maps in Wasserstein space.
result Demonstrates effective capture of nonlinear and high-dimensional distributional relationships.
Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region. This study …
This note refers to our previous paper "The emergence of torsion in the continuum limit of distributed edge-dislocations". It identifies and fixes an error in the notion of convergence of Weitzenböck manifolds defined in the paper, and in the proof of the well-definiteness of this notion of convergence.
The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.
problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.
New method detects if data points were used in training models with low cost and high power.
problem Detecting if a particular data point was used in training a model.
method Fine-grained modeling of null hypothesis in likelihood ratio tests, leveraging reference models and population data.
result RMIA has superior test power compared to prior methods, even at extremely low false positive rates.
Despite some empirical success at correcting exposure bias in machine translation, scheduled sampling algorithms suffer from a major drawback: they incorrectly assume that words in the reference translations and in sampled sequences are aligned at each time step. Our new differentiable sampling algorithm addresses this…
This paper proposes a new method for conditional sampling using optimal transport.
problem Sampling conditional distributions in Bayesian inference and density estimation.
method Iterative block-triangular transport maps solving an optimal transport problem with a weighted L2 cost function.
result The proposed method extends the data-driven approach for conditional sampling.
The paper proposes a new method to evaluate LLM agent responses using ECDF clustering.
problem The standard evaluation of LLM agent responses via majority voting obscures response quality and distribution.
method The paper introduces a novel evaluation framework based on ECDF of cosine similarities and clustering of ECDFs using distances and k-medoids algorithm. result ECDF clustering reveals interpretable group structures in LLM responses, offering insights into agent settings.
Private distribution learning with public data, leveraging sample compression schemes.
problem Private distribution learning with public and private samples under differential privacy constraints.
method Connection to sample compression schemes and list learning.
result At least d public samples are necessary for private learnability of Gaussians in R^d.
In this short note, we provide a sample complexity lower bound for learning linear predictors with respect to the squared loss. Our focus is on an agnostic setting, where no assumptions are made on the data distribution. This contrasts with standard results in the literature, which either make distributional assumption…
New KL-divergence for Gaussian distributions based on Wasserstein geometry.
problem Computing KL-divergence for Gaussian distributions efficiently.
method Introducing WKL-divergence based on Wasserstein geometry.
result WKL-divergence evaluates to squared distance between points for Dirac measures.
This work introduces a novel method to evaluate generative model novelty.
problem Evaluating the novelty of generative models compared to a reference model.
method Spectral approach to differential clustering and Kernel-based Entropic Novelty (KEN) score.
result The KEN score effectively detects novel modes and compares generative models.
We describe a method to perform functional operations on probability distributions of random variables. The method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space representations of probability distributions, and it is applicable to all operations which can be applied to points drawn from the respective distributions. We refer t…
Probabilistic generative models provide a powerful framework for representing data that avoids the expense of manual annotation typically needed by discriminative approaches. Model selection in this generative setting can be challenging, however, particularly when likelihoods are not easily accessible. To address this …
New method aligns diffusion models for inference-time properties without retraining.
problem Aligning pre-trained diffusion models for desired inference-time properties.
method Variationally stable Doob's matching for provable guidance estimation.
result Consistent estimator of guidance with non-asymptotic convergence guarantees.
This paper optimizes diffusion schedules for better sampling from data distributions.
problem Choosing an optimal discretization schedule for denoising diffusion models.
method Adaptive algorithm that selects an optimal schedule based on a work cost measure.
result The learned schedule recovers and outperforms manually tuned schedules.
Pareto's 80/20 rule follows a Gaussian distribution with twice the mean standard deviation.
problem Understanding variations in the 80/20 rule across different contexts.
method Identifying the statistical distribution of the 80/20 rule and its variations.
result The 80/20 rule follows a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation twice the mean.
`Distribution regression' refers to the situation where a response Y depends on a covariate P where P is a probability distribution. The model is Y=f(P) + mu where f is an unknown regression function and mu is a random error. Typically, we do not observe P directly, but rather, we observe a sample from P. In this paper…
W-Flow generates images in one step, faster and better than multi-step methods.
problem Efficiently generating images from a simple reference distribution to a target data distribution.
method W-Flow uses Wasserstein gradient flows to transform the reference distribution to the target distribution in a single step, trained with Sinkhorn divergence.
result W-Flow achieves state-of-the-art results in ImageNet 256imes256 generation with improved mode coverage and faster sampling. The paper proposes a new method to measure risk with fine-grained tail sensitivity.
problem Risk measures that do not account for tail sensitivity are insufficient for machine learning systems.
method The approach involves specifying a reference distribution with desired tail behavior and constructing risk measures compatible with this upper probability.
result Risk measures with fine-grained tail sensitivity can replace the expectation operator in machine learning systems.