A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper introduces a method for forecasting corporate sales growth using multiple reference variables.
The paper proposes a method to improve sales forecasts by selecting optimal reference classes.
Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been…
Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been…
This paper proposes a method for multi-class classification problems, where the number of classes K is large. The method, referred to as Candidates vs. Noises Estimation (CANE), selects a small subset of candidate classes and samples the remaining classes. We show that CANE is always consistent and computationally effi…
The Minimal Learning Machine (MLM) is a nonlinear supervised approach based on learning a linear mapping between distance matrices computed in the input and output data spaces, where distances are calculated using a subset of points called reference points. Its simple formulation has attracted several recent works on e…
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
Meta-algorithm selection aims to choose the best algorithm selector for a given problem instance.
Unified query framework for active metric learning and classification.
Current multi-reference style transfer models for Text-to-Speech (TTS) perform sub-optimally on disjoints datasets, where one dataset contains only a single style class for one of the style dimensions. These models generally fail to produce style transfer for the dimension that is underrepresented in the dataset. In th…
Generating user interpretable multi-class predictions in data rich environments with many classes and explanatory covariates is a daunting task. We introduce Diagonal Orthant Latent Dirichlet Allocation (DOLDA), a supervised topic model for multi-class classification that can handle both many classes as well as many co…
We consider the least-square linear regression problem with regularization by the l1-norm, a problem usually referred to as the Lasso. In this paper, we present a detailed asymptotic analysis of model consistency of the Lasso. For various decays of the regularization parameter, we compute asymptotic equivalents of the …
We consider the least-square linear regression problem with regularization by the -norm, a problem usually referred to as the Lasso. In this paper, we first present a detailed asymptotic analysis of model consistency of the Lasso in low-dimensional settings. For various decays of the regularization parameter, w…
The paper proposes a method to select clusters, models, and algorithms based on quadratic discriminant scores.
This paper optimizes portfolio selection by penalizing tracking error, improving Sharpe ratio.
Informative Bayesian priors are often difficult to elicit, and when this is the case, modelers usually turn to noninformative or objective priors. However, objective priors such as the Jeffreys and reference priors are not tractable to derive for many models of interest. We address this issue by proposing techniques fo…
A theoretical study is presented for a simple linear classifier called reference distance estimator (RDE), which assigns the weight of each feature j as P(r|j)-P(r), where r is a reference feature relevant to the target class y. The analysis shows that if r performs better than random guess in predicting y and is condi…
New method improves classification accuracy in imbalanced high-dimensional data.
Recently, many regularized procedures have been proposed for variable selection in linear regression, but their performance depends on the tuning parameter selection. Here a criterion for the tuning parameter selection is proposed, which combines the strength of both stability selection and cross-validation and therefo…
MixMOOD improves SSDL by selecting unlabelled data based on deep feature similarity.
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
Probabilistic generative models provide a powerful framework for representing data that avoids the expense of manual annotation typically needed by discriminative approaches. Model selection in this generative setting can be challenging, however, particularly when likelihoods are not easily accessible. To address this …
In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is crucial to select the appropriate number of states. We propose a new model sele…
Paper uses referenced thermodynamic integration for Bayesian model selection in a complex COVID-19 transmission model.
Develops a statistical test for IV, improving feature selection reliability.
Optimizes a portfolio for an investor preferring accepted securities over a reference security.
Run2Survive uses survival analysis for algorithm selection, outperforming traditional methods.
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…
Proposes a new framework to optimize portfolios with reduced estimation errors.
Typical cohorts in brain imaging studies are not large enough for systematic testing of all the information contained in the images. To build testable working hypotheses, investigators thus rely on analysis of previous work, sometimes formalized in a so-called meta-analysis. In brain imaging, this approach underlies th…
Spectral variability is one of the major issue when conducting hyperspectral unmixing. Within a given image composed of some elementary materials (herein referred to as endmember classes), the spectral signature characterizing these classes may spatially vary due to intrinsic component fluctuations or external factors …
This paper explores the following question: what kind of statistical guarantees can be given when doing variable selection in high-dimensional models? In particular, we look at the error rates and power of some multi-stage regression methods. In the first stage we fit a set of candidate models. In the second stage we s…
Supervised learning from training data with imbalanced class sizes, a commonly encountered scenario in real applications such as anomaly/fraud detection, has long been considered a significant challenge in machine learning. Motivated by recent progress in curriculum and self-paced learning, we propose to adopt a semi-s…
Study shows mutual funds add little value for uninformed investors.
We investigate different ways of generating approximate solutions to the pairwise Markov random field (MRF) selection problem. We focus mainly on the inverse Ising problem, but discuss also the somewhat related inverse Gaussian problem because both types of MRF are suitable for inference tasks with the belief propagati…
Review and compare sorting model selection methods for preference disaggregation.
This paper discusses predictive inference and feature selection for generalized linear models with scarce but high-dimensional data. We argue that in many cases one can benefit from a decision theoretically justified two-stage approach: first, construct a possibly non-sparse model that predicts well, and then find a mi…
Many machine learning tasks such as clustering, classification, and dataset search benefit from embedding data points in a space where distances reflect notions of relative similarity as perceived by humans. A common way to construct such an embedding is to request triplet similarity queries to an oracle, comparing two…
Audit financial machine learning workflows to detect spurious predictability.
NGP selects N features from P using neural networks in a greedy, iterative process.
BOOST automates kernel and acquisition function selection in Bayesian optimization.
One of the questions that arises when designing models that learn to solve multiple tasks simultaneously is how much of the available training budget should be devoted to each individual task. We refer to any formalized approach to addressing this problem (learned or otherwise) as a task selection policy. In this work …
New methods improve Laplace approximations for deep neural networks by selecting key parameters.
Binary Stochastic Filtering (BSF), the algorithm for feature selection and neuron pruning is proposed in this work. The method defines filtering layer which penalizes amount of the information involved in the training process. This information could be the input data or output of the previous layer, which directly lead…
Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region. This study …
PageRank for Semi-Supervised Learning has shown to leverage data structures and limited tagged examples to yield meaningful classification. Despite successes, classification performance can still be improved, particularly in cases of fuzzy graphs or unbalanced labeled data. To address such limitations, a novel approach…
This paper enhances stability selection by evaluating overall results robustness and identifying optimal regularization values.
Improves TTS accuracy by correcting context-dependent units.