Estimates and optimizes UBSR risk in recursive settings.
problem Estimating and optimizing UBSR risk in a recursive setting with one-at-a-time samples.
method Casts UBSR as a root finding problem, uses stochastic approximation and gradient descent.
result Derives non-asymptotic bounds on estimation and optimization errors.
Paper estimates the order of vertices in random recursive trees.
problem Estimating the order of arrival of vertices in random recursive trees.
method Proposes an order estimator based on the Jordan centrality measure and defines risk measures.
result Establishes a nearly optimal estimator for the problem.
Estimate arrival times in random recursive trees using iterated Jordan centralities.
problem Estimate arrival times in random recursive trees.
method Pointwise approach using iterated Jordan centralities.
result Tail bounds for relative estimation error.
The paper studies risk-sensitive MDPs with recursive risk measures.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making in MDPs with unbounded costs.
method Recursive application of static risk measures, Bellman equation derivation, existence of optimal policies.
result Existence of Markovian optimal policies for infinite planning horizons, contractive model for stationary optimal policy.
Greedy training of recursive partitioning estimators faces a computational barrier when the true function doesn't satisfy a specific property.
problem Computational inefficiency of greedy training for recursive partitioning estimators.
method Analysis of greedy training for sparse regression functions over binary features.
result Greedy training requires exponential samples when the true function doesn't satisfy a specific property (MSP), but only logarithmic samples when it does.
Study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with entropic risk measures and generative models.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in discounted MDPs with recursive entropic risk measures.
method Introduced Model-Based ERM Q-Value Iteration (MB-RS-QVI) and derived PAC bounds on sample complexity for value and policy learning. result PAC bounds show exponential dependence on ∣β∣/(1−γ), with tight bounds in S and A. In this paper, we develop an approach to recursively estimate the quadratic risk for matrix recovery problems regularized with spectral functions. Toward this end, in the spirit of the SURE theory, a key step is to compute the (weak) derivative and divergence of a solution with respect to the observations. As such a so…
Study uses reinforcement learning to optimize portfolios under recursive utility.
problem Improving portfolio allocation using risk-sensitive objectives.
method Approximated certainty equivalent via Monte Carlo, trained actor-critic algorithms (PPO, A2C).
result Recursive-utility agent outperforms discounted baseline in Sharpe ratio, max drawdown, and cumulative return.
In this paper we analyze a dynamic recursive extension of the (static) notion of a deviation measure and its properties. We study distribution invariant deviation measures and show that the only dynamic deviation measure which is law invariant and recursive is the variance. We also solve the problem of optimal risk-sha…
New methods learn from PU data with non-representative positives.
problem Learning from PU data with non-representative positive classes.
method Integrates negative-unlabeled and unlabeled-unlabeled learning, or uses a recursive risk estimator.
result Effective across various real-world datasets and forms of positive bias.
New random forest algorithms for PU learning minimize risk directly.
problem Learning from positive and unlabeled data.
method Recursive greedy risk minimization for decision trees.
result Efficient PU random forest algorithm with robustness and low hyperparameter tuning.
Formulates Markov property for risk-sensitive dynamic optimisation.
problem Risk-sensitive dynamic optimisation problems in discrete time.
method Formulates probabilistic Markov property under dynamic risk framework.
result Property holds for standard risk measures and has multiple equivalent versions.
New method improves credit risk estimation and pricing.
problem Estimating risk measures and CDO tranche prices in credit portfolios.
method Mod-Poisson approximation schemes based on mod-φ convergence.
result The method provides more accurate estimates with less computational time.
Paper analyzes time series prediction using empirical risk minimization.
problem Optimizing 1-step-ahead prediction for time series.
method Empirical risk minimization applied to recursive algorithms for time series forecasting.
result Empirical risk minimization achieves optimal predictive performance.
Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
The paper uses LSM to solve complex monetary utility functions.
problem Computing dynamic monetary utility functions with high dimensions.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm.
result LSM algorithm successfully applied to recursive Cost-of-Capital valuation.
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. We then link our propose…
Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However with modern comput…
Study dynamic Pareto-optimal allocations in multi-period economies with time-consistent risk measures.
problem Optimal allocation in multi-period pure-exchange economies with stochastic endowments and time-consistent risk measures.
method Introduced dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes and derived recursive and comonotone improvement theorems.
result Dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes can be constructed recursively and are comonotone.
Self-training in linear models shows a U-shaped test-risk curve due to signal forgetting and denoising.
problem Understanding the dynamics of iterative self-training in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Derivation of deterministic-equivalent recursions for prediction risk and effective noise, analysis of signal forgetting and denoising effects.
result An optimal early-stopping time is determined, and a U-shaped test-risk curve is observed.
We study an optimal investment/consumption problem in a model capturing market and credit risk dependencies. Stochastic factors drive both the default intensity and the volatility of the stocks in the portfolio. We use the martingale approach and analyze the recursive system of nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equatio…
This paper studies an optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer with default contagion and regime-switching. The insurer in our model allocates his/her wealth across multi-name defaultable stocks and a riskless bond under regime-switching risk. Default events have an impact on the distress state of the…
Study optimizes insurance and investment strategies for risk-averse insurers under ambiguity.
problem Optimizing insurance and investment strategies for risk-averse insurers under ambiguity.
method Solves a coupled FBSDE to derive optimal strategies and value function.
result Optimal consumption, investment, and reinsurance strategies influenced by risk aversion and EIS.
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
problem Reducing valuation risk in business valuation models.
method Recursive FCFF model with Kalman filtering to adjust WACC.
result Significant reduction in valuation risk by implementing Kalman filter.
A method for calculating multi-portfolio time consistent multivariate risk measures in discrete time is presented. Market models for d assets with transaction costs or illiquidity and possible trading constraints are considered on a finite probability space. The set of capital requirements at each time and state is c…
In this paper, we propose the discrete time Compound Beta-Binomial Risk Model with by-claims, delayed by-claims and randomized dividends. We then analyze the Gerber-Shiu function for the cases where the dividend threshold d=0 and d>0 under the assumption that the constant discount rate ν∈(0,1). More specifical…
New method targets relative risk heterogeneity in clinical trials.
problem Identifying treatment effects across subgroups with absolute risk differences.
method Modified causal forests using a novel node-splitting procedure based on relative risk.
result Relative risk causal forests can capture heterogeneity not detected by absolute risk methods.
The paper concerns primal and dual representations as well as time consistency of set-valued dynamic risk measures. Set-valued risk measures appear naturally when markets with transaction costs are considered and capital requirements can be made in a basket of currencies or assets. Time consistency of scalar risk measu…
Different approaches to defining dynamic market risk measures are available in the literature. Most are focused or derived from probability theory, economic behavior or dynamic programming. Here, we propose an approach to define and implement dynamic market risk measures based on recursion and state economy representat…
New recursive algorithm estimates conditional kernel mean embeddings in Hilbert space.
problem Estimating conditional distributions in RKHS for supervised learning.
method Recursive algorithm in L2 space for conditional kernel mean map. result Strong L2 consistency of recursive estimator proved. In this paper we present results on dynamic multivariate scalar risk measures, which arise in markets with transaction costs and systemic risk. Dual representations of such risk measures are presented. These are then used to obtain the main results of this paper on time consistency; namely, an equivalent recursive form…
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
problem State estimation in systems with noisy measurements and non-Gaussian noise.
method Recursive KalmanNet uses a recurrent neural network to estimate states with consistent error covariance, optimizing for Gaussian negative log-likelihood.
result Recursive KalmanNet outperforms conventional Kalman filters and deep learning-based estimators in non-Gaussian noise conditions.
We introduce a recursive algorithm for performing compressed sensing on streaming data. The approach consists of a) recursive encoding, where we sample the input stream via overlapping windowing and make use of the previous measurement in obtaining the next one, and b) recursive decoding, where the signal estimate from…
Develops methods for estimating constrained function-valued parameters in infinite-dimensional models.
problem Estimating function-valued parameters with structural constraints in complex models.
method Characterizes constrained solutions as minimizers of penalized population risk, using a Lagrange-type formulation and path through unconstrained space.
result Proposes estimators that achieve optimal risk and constraint satisfaction, applicable across various statistical learning approaches.
Novel method recursively partitions sample space for density estimation.
problem Estimating complex density functions efficiently and accurately.
method Recursive partitioning of the sample space, asymptotically exact.
result Asymptotically exact approximation of any density function.
We propose a novel approach to parameter estimation for simulator-based statistical models with intractable likelihood. Our proposed method involves recursive application of kernel ABC and kernel herding to the same observed data. We provide a theoretical explanation regarding why the approach works, showing (for the p…
We derive a recursive formula for arithmetic Asian option prices with finite observation times in semimartingale models. The method is based on the relationship between the risk-neutral expectation of the quadratic variation of the return process and European option prices. The computation of arithmetic Asian option pr…
Dynamic risk measures follow law invariance principles over time.
problem Tackles dynamic risk measurement principles.
method Shows equivalence between adapted law invariance and recursive one-step conditional-law representation for time-consistent risk measures.
result Identifies adapted law invariance as the dynamic counterpart of ordinary law invariance.
AdaVol adapts QML for real-time GARCH volatility prediction.
problem Real-time estimation of GARCH volatility in streaming data.
method Adaptive recursive estimation routine with Variance Targeting Estimation.
result AdaVol provides a stable and adaptive method for real-life data.
A clinician desires to use a risk-stratification method that achieves confident risk-stratification - the risk estimates of the different patients reflect the true risks with a high probability. This allows him/her to use these risks to make accurate predictions about prognosis and decisions about screening, treatments…
The paper studies optimal investment using acceptability indices to maximize portfolio performance.
problem Optimal investment problem using coherent acceptability indices.
method Numerical algorithm approximating the original problem, dynamic coherent risk measures, set-valued Bellman's principle.
result Acceptability maximization problem reduces to a one-period problem under certain conditions.
We introduce a dynamic credit portfolio framework where optimal investment strategies are robust against misspecifications of the reference credit model. The risk-averse investor models his fear of credit risk misspecification by considering a set of plausible alternatives whose expected log likelihood ratios are penal…
Causal trees struggle with accuracy in estimating treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal treatment effects using recursive decision trees.
method Adaptive recursive partitioning with and without sample splitting.
result Causal tree estimators can have uniform-norm errors decreasing more slowly than any power of the sample size.
Introduces RPU to explain randomization preference in dynamic settings.
problem Explains preference for randomization in dynamic investment problems.
method Introduces recursive perturbed utility (RPU) to incorporate randomization preference.
result Proves RPU-optimal portfolio policy is Gaussian and can be expressed in closed form.
Bayesian method for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
problem Estimating uncertainties in autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
method Recursive Bayesian estimation via message passing in a factor graph.
result Produces full posterior distributions for autoregressive coefficients and noise precision.
A new algorithm SRG-DQN reduces variance in deep Q-learning.
problem Inaccurate estimation of anchor points in SVRG for deep Q-learning.
method Introduces recursive gradient variance reduction for stochastic gradient updates.
result Demonstrates improved efficiency and effectiveness of SRG-DQN on reinforcement learning tasks.
A new method optimizes diffusion models with recursive likelihood ratios.
problem Efficiently aligning pre-trained diffusion models for specific applications.
method Recursive Likelihood Ratio (RLR) optimizer for Half-Order (HO) fine-tuning.
result The RLR method achieves unbiased and lower-variance gradients, improving model performance.