We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold or below a negative threshold of two indices and 20 individual stocks in China's stock market. The distributions of recurrence intervals for positive and negative thresho…
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48 results for “recurrence analysis”
Lipschitz RNNs improve stability and performance in various tasks.
problem Improving stability and performance of RNNs.
method Introduced a Lipschitz recurrent unit with a linear and Lipschitz nonlinear component for stability analysis.
result Lipschitz RNNs outperform existing units on benchmark tasks.
We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold . The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2…
Study analyzes stock market dynamics using recurrence measures and transitions.
problem Understanding transitions in stock market dynamics during crises.
method Recurrence plots and networks from nonstationary stock market data.
result Recurrence measures capture transitions in stock market dynamics.
Recurrence analysis of the NASDAQ crash of April 2000physics.soc-ph
Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis RQA) are signal numerical analysis methodologies able to work with non linear dynamical systems and non stationarity. Moreover they well evidence changes in the states of a dynamical system. It is shown that RP and RQA detect the critical regime in financial i…
Study compares LSTM, Transformer, and Mamba for bladder cancer recurrence analysis.
problem Complex time-dependent data in bladder cancer recurrence analysis.
method Evaluation of LSTM, Transformer, and Mamba models using Cox proportional hazards model.
result LSTM-Cox model outperforms Transformer-Cox and Mamba-Cox models in prediction accuracy.
Recurrent neural networks show state-of-the-art results in many text analysis tasks but often require a lot of memory to store their weights. Recently proposed Sparse Variational Dropout eliminates the majority of the weights in a feed-forward neural network without significant loss of quality. We apply this technique …
We present the multiplicative recurrent neural network as a general model for compositional meaning in language, and evaluate it on the task of fine-grained sentiment analysis. We establish a connection to the previously investigated matrix-space models for compositionality, and show they are special cases of the multi…
New approach predicts stock price synchronization using RNNs and LSTMs.
problem Forecasting synchronization of stock prices in the Indian market.
method Utilizing recurrence plots and CRQA for non-linear analysis, RNNs and LSTMs for prediction.
result Accuracy of 0.98 and F1 score of 0.83 in predicting stock price synchronization.
Two new methods improve forecasting of functional time series data.
problem Forecasting of functional time-dependent data.
method Functional Singular Spectrum Analysis (FSFA) based forecasting methods.
result Our methods outperform existing algorithms for periodic stochastic processes.
Energy markets and the associated energy futures markets play a crucial role in global economies. We investigate the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals of daily volatility time series of four NYMEX energy futures, which are defined as the waiting times between consecutive volatilities exceeding a gi…
Gradient descent optimally trains RNNs without overparameterization.
problem Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with gradient descent.
method Nonasymptotic analysis of gradient descent for RNNs with diagonal weight matrices.
result Gradient descent can achieve optimality in RNNs with a network size scaling logarithmically with the number of samples.
We propose an approach that connects recurrent networks with different orders of hidden interaction with regular grammars of different levels of complexity. We argue that the correspondence between recurrent networks and formal computational models gives understanding to the analysis of the complicated behaviors of rec…
Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies too. In this paper, we will show that these plots are able to characterize the peri…
Identifying patient characteristics that influence the rate of colorectal polyp recurrence can provide important insights into which patients are at higher risk for recurrence. We used natural language processing to extract polyp morphological characteristics from 953 polyp-presenting patients' electronic medical recor…
Simplified LSTM models improve sentiment analysis on Twitter debate data.
problem Performing sentiment analysis on long sequence data from Twitter debates.
method Developed six parameter-reduced LSTM models (slim LSTM) for faster training and reduced computational cost.
result Slim LSTM models outperform standard LSTM model in sentiment analysis of GOP Debate Twitter dataset.
Predicting the State of Synchronization of Financial Time Series using Cross Recurrence Plotsq-fin.ST
Study predicts synchronization state of financial time series using cross-recurrence plots.
problem Predicting the state of synchronization of financial time series.
method Cross-correlation analysis and deep learning framework for predicting synchronization state based on cross-recurrence plots.
result Satisfactory performance in predicting synchronization state for certain pairs of stocks.
Reverse engineering recurrent networks for sentiment classification reveals line attractor dynamicscs.LG
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a widely used tool for modeling sequential data, yet they are often treated as inscrutable black boxes. Given a trained recurrent network, we would like to reverse engineer it--to obtain a quantitative, interpretable description of how it solves a particular task. Even for simple ta…
In order to build efficient deep recurrent neural architectures, it is essential to analyze the complexityof long distance dependencies (LDDs) of the dataset being modeled. In this paper, we presentdetailed analysis of the dependency decay curve exhibited by various datasets. The datasets sampledfrom a similar process …
Causal inference for the expected number of recurrent events in the presence of a terminal eventstat.ME
Develops a method for causal inference in recurrent event data with terminal failure.
problem Causal inference in recurrent event data with a terminal event.
method Multiply robust estimation framework for causal inference.
result Proposes an estimator for the expected number of recurrent events and failure survival function.
We investigate time-dependent data analysis from the perspective of recurrent kernel machines, from which models with hidden units and gated memory cells arise naturally. By considering dynamic gating of the memory cell, a model closely related to the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network is derived. E…
Unrolled neural networks emerged recently as an effective model for learning inverse maps appearing in image restoration tasks. However, their generalization risk (i.e., test mean-squared-error) and its link to network design and train sample size remains mysterious. Leveraging the Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE…
This work optimizes reservoir computing models by linking recurrence and non-linear dynamics.
problem Understanding how recurrence and non-linear dynamics in cortical networks contribute to their function.
method Transformed time-continuous, recurrent dynamics into an effective feed-forward structure of linear and non-linear temporal kernels.
result Optimal time-series classifiers can be built from random reservoir networks, demonstrating significant performance gains.
In a recurrent setting, conventional approaches to neural architecture search find and fix a general model for all data samples and time steps. We propose a novel algorithm that can dynamically search for the structure of cells in a recurrent neural network model. Based on a combination of recurrent and recursive neura…
Study asymptotics of one part monotone Hurwitz numbers in high genus.
problem Asymptotic analysis of one part monotone Hurwitz numbers in high genus.
method Used a linear recurrence and a recent method to extract asymptotics.
result Obtained bivariate asymptotics for one part monotone Hurwitz numbers in high genus.
Neural network model predicts alternating event-free periods.
problem Dynamic prediction of alternating recurrent events with statistical nuance.
method Developed an online dynamic prediction framework using neural network theory.
result Outstanding performance in predicting alternating recurrent event-free time.
Early warning of large volatilities based on recurrence interval analysis in Chinese stock marketsq-fin.ST
Being able to forcast extreme volatility is a central issue in financial risk management. We present a large volatility predicting method based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between volatilities exceeding a certain threshold for a fixed expected recurrence time . We find that the recurrence inter…
Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.
problem Stock price prediction using neural networks.
method Comparison of fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures; inclusion of three optimization techniques.
result Single layer recurrent neural network with RMSprop optimizer produces optimal results with validation and test MAE of 0.0150 and 0.0148 respectively.
We investigate the performance of features that can capture nonlinear recurrence dynamics embedded in the speech signal for the task of Speech Emotion Recognition (SER). Reconstruction of the phase space of each speech frame and the computation of its respective Recurrence Plot (RP) reveals complex structures which can…
Convergence Analysis of Real-time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) for a class of Recurrent Neural Networkscs.LG
RTRL optimizes long sequences without truncation, converging to loss minima.
problem Inaccuracies in TBPTT for long sequences.
method Online optimization with exact gradient calculation.
result RTRL converges to loss minima for a class of RNNs.
New algorithm speeds up RNN time series prediction by filtering noise.
problem Predicting smooth trajectories from noisy time series data.
method Analyzed RNN dynamics to propose an efficient noise filtering algorithm.
result Significant speedup in predictive process without accuracy loss.
Traditional Recurrent Neural Networks assume vectorized data as inputs. However many data from modern science and technology come in certain structures such as tensorial time series data. To apply the recurrent neural networks for this type of data, a vectorisation process is necessary, while such a vectorisation leads…
Proves local convergence of various online and recurrent optimization algorithms.
problem Proves local convergence of online and recurrent optimization algorithms not covered by standard stochastic gradient descent theory.
method Uses a general set of assumptions for learning dynamical systems online, adopting an 'ergodic' viewpoint.
result Local convergence results for online and recurrent optimization algorithms, including RMSProp, NoBackTrack, UORO, Adam, and RTRL.
New analysis explains pathology of deep Gaussian processes.
problem Pathology of deep Gaussian processes reduces learning capacities with increased layers.
method Study nonlinear dynamic systems corresponding to DGPs, derive recurrence relations.
result Provide tighter bounds and rate of convergence for dynamic systems.
TransformerLSR models longitudinal, recurrent, and survival data jointly.
problem Joint modeling of longitudinal measurements, recurrent events, and survival data with dependencies.
method Transformer-based deep learning framework integrating deep temporal point processes and latent structure representation.
result TransformerLSR effectively models all three components simultaneously, demonstrating necessity and effectiveness through simulations and real-world data.
New approach to understand recurrent policies as FSMs without minimization.
problem Minimization of FSMs obscures the semantics of policy decisions.
method Start with unminimized FSM, apply interpretable reductions, use attention tool.
result Reveals insights into policy decisions not previously noticed.
Analyzes self-attention in recurrent networks, proving it mitigates vanishing gradients.
problem Vanishing gradients in recurrent networks when capturing long-term dependencies.
method Formal analysis of self-attention's effect on gradient propagation, proposing a relevancy screening mechanism.
result Self-attention mitigates vanishing gradients in recurrent networks, providing guarantees.
With latent variables, stochastic recurrent models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in modeling sound-wave sequence. However, opposite results are also observed in other domains, where standard recurrent networks often outperform stochastic models. To better understand this discrepancy, we re-examine the role…
Deep neural networks, including recurrent networks, have been successfully applied to human activity recognition. Unfortunately, the final representation learned by recurrent networks might encode some noise (irrelevant signal components, unimportant sensor modalities, etc.). Besides, it is difficult to interpret the r…
This study analyzes how RNNs process context in sentiment analysis.
problem Understanding how recurrent neural networks process context in sentiment analysis.
method Developed methods to reverse engineer RNNs, identifying contextual effects and quantifying their strength and timescale.
result Identified inputs that induce contextual effects and quantified their properties.
Recurrent neural networks trained on regular languages exhibit stable states that can recover from noise.
problem Stability of internal states in recurrent neural networks trained on regular languages.
method Empirical study with analysis of network activation and transitions between states.
result Recurrent neural networks trained on regular languages can recover from random perturbations and maintain stable states.
Stability of recurrent models is closely linked with trainability, generalizability and in some applications, safety. Methods that train stable recurrent neural networks, however, do so at a significant cost to expressibility. We propose an implicit model structure that allows for a convex parametrization of stable mod…
Recently, a technique called Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) was shown to deliver insightful explanations in the form of input space relevances for understanding feed-forward neural network classification decisions. In the present work, we extend the usage of LRP to recurrent neural networks. We propose a specif…
Lyapunov analysis improves RNN performance prediction.
problem Uncertainty in RNN performance prediction due to hyperparameters and architecture.
method Lyapunov spectral analysis of RNNs and Autoencoder-Lyapunov Embedding Learning (AeLLE).
result AeLLE successfully correlates RNN Lyapunov spectrum with accuracy and predicts performance.
Many-to-one RNN predicts user hotel clicks from browsing history.
problem Predicting user hotel clicks from browsing history.
method Combines rule-based algorithm with Gated RNN to sort accommodations.
result Promising results but computationally demanding.
Paper uses RNN to predict SaaS user lifetime value.
problem Predicting user lifetime value in SaaS applications.
method Recurrent Neural Network with multi-cell architecture, accounting for cohort, age-in-system, and contemporaneous information.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy compared to existing models.
The extension of deep learning towards temporal data processing is gaining an increasing research interest. In this paper we investigate the properties of state dynamics developed in successive levels of deep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in terms of short-term memory abilities. Our results reveal interesting insigh…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are predictable on the short term. Examining a range of different types of returns and th…