A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new method uses preference relations to reconcile contradictory trading signals from multiple securities.
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to be at odds with the observed behavior of methods used in the modern machine lear…
Introduces LLC, a new complexity measure for DNNs based on SLT.
Wide residual networks generalize well with uniform convergence to RNTK as width increases.
DOC3 learns from contradictions to improve deep one class classification.
In this paper, we aim at introducing a new machine learning model, namely reconciled polynomial machine, which can provide a unified representation of existing shallow and deep machine learning models. Reconciled polynomial machine predicts the output by computing the inner product of the feature kernel function and va…
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
Contradiction graphs reveal VC dimension threshold.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. They demonstrate convincingly that the takeoffs from stagnation to growth, claimed in the Unified Growth Theory, never happened. This theory is again contradicted by data, which were used, but never properly analysed, during its formulation. The absence of the cl…
Proves torus sequences can't collapse to intervals under curvature bounds.
Study resolves the Korean LVRP puzzle by showing HVRP exists but is masked by investor heterogeneity and improper intensity normalization.
Proposes a neural network for accurate and reconciled hierarchical time series forecasting.
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, U…
ReSkill reconciles RL skill creation with policy optimization.
The paper reconciles two conflicting fairness criteria in algorithmic risk scores.
One of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory is the claimed existence of three distinctly different regimes of economic growth governed by three distinctly different mechanisms of growth. However, Galor also proposed that the timing of these regimes is different for developed countries and for less-de…
A new model reconciles rough volatility and jumps.
We study offline recommender learning from explicit rating feedback in the presence of selection bias. A current promising solution for the bias is the inverse propensity score (IPS) estimation. However, the performance of existing propensity-based methods can suffer significantly from the propensity estimation bias. I…
Paper proposes a new method for selecting the best hierarchical forecasting approach.
Proves a special knot type is slice.
We show that learning methods interpolating the training data can achieve optimal rates for the problems of nonparametric regression and prediction with square loss.
Construct pseudo-Anosovs from expanding interval maps, reconciling Thurston's construction.
We prove a blow-up criterion in terms of an -bound of the curvature for solutions to the curve diffusion flow if the maximal time of existence is finite. In our setting, we consider an evolving family of curves driven by curve diffusion flow, which has free boundary points supported on a line. The evolving curve h…
Study shows how optimization affects deep neural network performance as model size increases.
Contradicts claims about Poincaré complexes and homology manifolds.
Breiman's two cultures reconciled through blending statistical thinking.
Pruning improves model generalization in over-parameterized models, contradicting traditional theories.
The bias-variance tradeoff doesn't always apply in neural networks, contradicting textbook claims.
When forecasting time series with a hierarchical structure, the existing state of the art is to forecast each time series independently, and, in a post-treatment step, to reconcile the time series in a way that respects the hierarchy (Hyndman et al., 2011; Wickramasuriya et al., 2018). We propose a new loss function th…
In this article we prove that any unitary, axiomatic topological quantum field theory in four-dimensions can not detect changes in the smooth structure of M, a simply connected, closed (compact without boundary), oriented smooth manifold. However, as Donaldson-Witten theory (a topological quantum field theory but not a…
If a (non-constant) polynomial has no zero, then a certain Riemannian metric is constructed on the two dimensional sphere. Several geometric arguments are then shown to contradict this fact.
Published in 1999, Christodoulou proved that the naked singularities of a self-gravitating scalar field are not stable in spherical symmetry and therefore the cosmic censorship conjecture is true in this context. The original proof is by contradiction and sharp estimates are obtained strictly depending on spherical sym…
THieF improves day-ahead electricity price prediction accuracy by reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics Letters A (346), 2005] and put the application of the method on a firm theoretical …
RPN unifies various models with a reconciled polynomial network.
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false definition of risk-perception, which we correct by introducing Expected Downside Ris…
Dehn surgery homeomorphic pairs contradict a conjecture.
Paper reconciles different Ricci flow approaches and proves weak solutions.
Marxism's rate of profit thesis rejected as illogical.
Endowed with natural topologies, the fundamental group of the Hawaiian earring continuously injects into the inverse limit of free groups. This note shows the injection fails to have a continuous inverse. Such a phenomenon was unexpected and appears to contradict results of another author.
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian…
In this small article one compromise monetization strategy is proposed, which hopefully may lead to a more satisfactory coexistence of IP manufacturers and consumers. The motto is "fair exchange": you use our IP-product, we use your product (in form of money); when you do not need our product any more, we change back.
Given any embedded Lagrangian on a four dimensional compact Calabi-Yau, we find another Lagrangian in the same Hamiltonian isotopy class which develops a finite time singularity under mean curvature flow. This contradicts a weaker version of the Thomas-Yau conjecture regarding long time existence and convergence of Lag…
This paper reconciles different views on AdaBoost to better understand its dynamics.
Du, Kakade, Wang, and Yang recently established intriguing lower bounds on sample complexity, which suggest that reinforcement learning with a misspecified representation is intractable. Another line of work, which centers around a statistic called the eluder dimension, establishes tractability of problems similar to t…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions. It is shown here that the fundamental postulates of this theory are contradicted …