A new model framework called Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (Realized-CARE) is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the conventional CARE model, in a manner analogous to the Realized-GARCH model. Competing realized measures (e.g. Realized Variance and Realized Range) are employed a…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “realized measures”
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
VOLARE provides standardized realized volatility measures from financial data.
problem Lack of standardized realized volatility measures from ultra-high-frequency data.
method Asset-specific pipeline for cleaning and sampling data, providing a wide range of realized estimators.
result Comprehensive set of realized estimators for equities, exchange rates, and futures.
A Bayesian realized threshold measurement GARCH framework for financial tail risk forecastingq-fin.RM
Bayesian framework forecasts financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
problem Forecasting financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
method Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for model estimation; nonlinear threshold regression specification.
result The proposed framework produces competitive tail risk forecasts compared to GARCH and Realized-GARCH models.
The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.
problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected Shortfall (ES) components, to jointly estimate and forecast VaR and ES. The measu…
Bayesian realized EGARCH models improve tail risk forecasting.
problem Forecasting tail risks in financial markets.
method Developed a Bayesian framework for realized EGARCH models, incorporating multiple realized volatility measures and using robust adaptive Metropolis algorithm for estimation.
result Standardized skewed Student-t distribution and sub-sampled realized range models outperform other models in tail risk forecasting.
Procyclicality of historical risk measure estimation means that one tends to over-estimate future risk when present realized volatility is high and vice versa under-estimate future risk when the realized volatility is low. Out of it different questions arise, relevant for applications and theory: What are the factors w…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo m…
Enhanced volatility model using LSTM and realized volatility.
problem Volatility modeling in financial markets.
method Combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures in a Bayesian framework.
result Superior predictive performance compared to benchmark models.
We introduce wavelet-based methodology for estimation of realized variance allowing its measurement in the time-frequency domain. Using smooth wavelets and Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, we allow for the decomposition of the realized variance into several investment horizons and jumps. Basing our estimator…
We define generalized currents associated with immersions of abstract oriented solenoids with a transversal measure. We realize geometrically the full real homology of a compact manifold with these generalized currents, and more precisely with immersions of minimal uniquely ergodic solenoids. This makes precise and geo…
Paper integrates real data into probabilistic models using Fourier transform.
problem Learning from constrained data sets in high dimensions.
method Functional approach based on weak formulation of Fourier transform of probability measures.
result Estimation of posterior probability measures for QoI and QoI with control parameter.
We investigate the existence of affine realizations for Lévy driven interest rate term structure models under the real-world probability measure, which so far has only been studied under an assumed risk-neutral probability measure. For models driven by Wiener processes, all results obtained under the risk-neutral appro…
GEEN uses deep learning to estimate unobserved variables from observed data.
problem Estimating unobserved variables in latent variable models.
method GEEN uses deep learning with Kullback-Leibler distance to map observed measurements to latent variable realizations.
result GEEN provides a method to identify and estimate latent variables in a class of models.
Measuring conditional dependencies among the variables of a network is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies some shortcomings of the existing dependency measures in detecting direct causal influences or their lack of ability for group selection to capture strong dependencies and accordingly introdu…
We develop a tractable model of realization utility that studies the role of reference-dependent S-shaped preferences in a dynamic investment setting with reinvestment. Our model generates both voluntarily realized gains and losses. It makes specific predictions about the volume of gains and losses, the holding periods…
New method estimates VaR and ES using high-frequency data, outperforming existing approaches.
problem Limitations of existing VaR and ES estimation methods in high-frequency data.
method Transforms intra-day returns using subordinator process, filters autocorrelation, fits fat-tailed distribution.
result Outperforms existing methods in VaR and ES estimation and forecasting.
Realized GARCH model explains VIX and VRP dynamics.
problem Understanding VIX and VRP dynamics in financial markets.
method Developed Realized GARCH model with two shocks.
result Realized GARCH model outperforms conventional GARCH models.
RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.
problem Efficiently forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) with long-memory and non-linear realized volatility.
method Loss-based generalized Bayesian inference with Sequential Monte Carlo for model estimation and prediction.
result RNN-HAR model consistently outperforms other VaR forecasting models.
Semi-parametric Realized Nonlinear Conditional Autoregressive Expectile and Expected Shortfallq-fin.RM
A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and the latent conditional expectile. Nonlinear threshold specification is further i…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the influence of different timescales on volatility forecasts. The decomposition of …
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible quantile regression framework and rely on recently developed model-free measures of int…
We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally independent increments and symmetric jump measure, then its discrete realized variance…
Pro-Cyclicality of Traditional Risk Measurements: Quantifying and Highlighting Factors at its Sourceq-fin.RM
Since the introduction of risk-based solvency regulation, pro-cyclicality has been a subject of concerns from all market participants. Here, we lay down a methodology to evaluate the amount of pro-cyclicality in the way finnancial institutions measure risk, and identify factors explaining this pro-cyclical behavior. We…
Beyond the Return: Off-policy Function Estimation under User-specified Error-measuring Distributionscs.LG
This work provides guarantees for off-policy function estimation under realizability assumptions.
problem Estimating the value function of a policy under user-specified error-measuring distributions.
method The approach involves imposing a flexible regularization on the MIS objectives to account for an arbitrary user-specified distribution.
result Exact characterization of the optimal dual solution that determines the data-coverage assumption in the case of value-function learning.
Study online learning with set-valued feedback, showing differences between deterministic and randomized approaches.
problem Online learning with set-valued feedback, where labels are sets rather than single labels.
method Introduced new combinatorial dimensions (Set Littlestone and Measure Shattering) to characterize learnability.
result Characterized deterministic and randomized online learnability, and established bounds for various learning settings.
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the market's expectation and is often used as an ex-ante measure of the investor sentiment.…
Information theory provides a mathematical foundation to measure uncertainty in belief. Belief is represented by a probability distribution that captures our understanding of an outcome's plausibility. Information measures based on Shannon's concept of entropy include realization information, Kullback-Leibler divergenc…
Ergodic solenoidal homologymath.DG
We define generalized currents associated with immersions of abstract solenoids with a transversal measure. We realize geometrically the full real homology of a compact manifold with these generalized currents, and more precisely with immersions of minimal uniquely ergodic solenoids. This makes precise and geometric De…
We axiomatically introduce risk-consistent conditional systemic risk measures defined on multidimensional risks. This class consists of those conditional systemic risk measures which can be decomposed into a state-wise conditional aggregation and a univariate conditional risk measure. Our studies extend known results f…
Study improves forecast accuracy of daily volatility to enhance portfolio performance.
problem Improving predictability of realized variance from market views.
method High-dimensional machine learning models and low-dimensional factor models used to forecast firm-level volatility.
result Marginal improvements in forecast error lead to significant gains in portfolio performance.
Given a contact 3-manifold we consider the problem of when a given function can be realized as the Ricci curvature of a Reeb vector field for the contact structure. We will use topological tools to show that every admissible function can be realized as such Ricci curvature for a singular metric which is an honest compa…
New method improves dictionary recovery from over-realized models.
problem Theoretical guarantees for model recovery in dictionary learning are limited.
method Search over larger over-realized models to facilitate dictionary recovery.
result Model recovery can be upper-bounded by empirical risk and generalization gap.
New protocol for online learning with partial feedback, extending classical methods.
problem Learning with partial feedback where only one acceptable label is observed per round.
method Introducing a collection version space to address the lack of direct extension of classical methods.
result Characterization of learnability in set-realizable regime using Partial-Feedback Littlestone dimension and Partial-Feedback Measure Shattering dimension.
Develops a GMM method to estimate roughness in stochastic volatility models.
problem Estimating roughness in stochastic volatility models with fractional Brownian motion.
method GMM approach for log-normal models with integrated variance and noisy realized variance.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator with bias correction.
Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the application of fuzzy transform and its inverse as an alternative measure of volat…
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. …
We focus on the problem of estimating and quantifying uncertainties on the excursion set of a function under a limited evaluation budget. We adopt a Bayesian approach where the objective function is assumed to be a realization of a Gaussian random field. In this setting, the posterior distribution on the objective func…
We study prediction and estimation problems using empirical risk minimization, relative to a general convex loss function. We obtain sharp error rates even when concentration is false or is very restricted, for example, in heavy-tailed scenarios. Our results show that the error rate depends on two parameters: one captu…
We realize a given (monic) Alexander polynomial by a (fibered) hyperbolic arborescent knot and link of any number of components, and by infinitely many such links of at least 4 components. As a consequence, a Mahler measure minimizing polynomial, if it exists, is realized as the Alexander polynomial of a fibered hyperb…
Practical application of Reinforcement Learning (RL) often involves risk considerations. We study a generalized approximation scheme for risk measures, based on Monte-Carlo simulations, where the risk measures need not necessarily be \emph{coherent}. We demonstrate that, even in simple problems, measures such as the va…
Measuring comodules are defined and shown to provide a useful generalization of the set of maps between modules with a broad range of applications. Three applications are described. Connections on bundles are described in terms of measuring comodules, enabling curvature to be defined under general algebraic circumstanc…
We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized facts often found in volatility data. Our prime model is based on the so-called …
A new method to estimate local volatility from high-frequency data.
problem Quantitative trading risk management needs a better way to estimate volatility.
method Realized local volatility surface estimated via high-frequency data and Bayesian nonparametric estimation.
result The method can capture counterfactual volatility and improve risk management.
Using quantile time series and historical simulation to forecast financial risk multiple steps aheadq-fin.ST
The paper develops a method to forecast financial risk multiple steps ahead using quantile time series and historical simulation.
problem Forecasting financial risk multiple steps ahead with accurate estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES).
method Quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of VaR and ES models, using quantile loss function and resampling.
result The proposed method accurately forecasts VaR and ES one and multiple steps ahead, superior to existing methods.
Entropy measure quantifies volatility correlation and risk diversity in asset portfolios.
problem Quantifying volatility correlation and risk diversity in asset portfolios.
method Kullback-Leibler cluster entropy for empirical and model probability distributions of realized volatility.
result Portfolio built on diversity indexes derived from Kullback-Leibler entropy measure of realized volatility exhibits better performance.
We introduce an operation that measures the self intersections of paths on a surface. As applications, we give a criterion of the realizability of a generalized Dehn twist, and derive a geometric constraint on the image of the Johnson homomorphism.