Bayesian realized EGARCH models improve tail risk forecasting.
problem Forecasting tail risks in financial markets.
method Developed a Bayesian framework for realized EGARCH models, incorporating multiple realized volatility measures and using robust adaptive Metropolis algorithm for estimation.
result Standardized skewed Student-t distribution and sub-sampled realized range models outperform other models in tail risk forecasting.
Study compares volatility models for Bitcoin, finds GARCH and EGARCH outperform.
problem Evaluating which volatility models best predict Bitcoin spot and option prices.
method Used HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH models on Bitcoin spot price series.
result GARCH and EGARCH models outperform other models in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.
Classical time series models forecast Bitcoin prices and volatility accurately.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin prices and volatility using classical models.
method ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH models were trained and tested on Bitcoin price data.
result ARIMA models performed best for short-term price dynamics, while EGARCH models were best for volatility.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
Study analyzes how COVID-19 impacts crypto and stock market volatility.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and stock market volatility.
method Two-stage multivariate EGARCH model with DCC approach, VaR and CFVaR.
result Significant spillover effects and conditional volatility surges after shocks.
Study examines how institutional differences and crises affect volatility in ASEAN stock markets.
problem Understanding how institutional differences and crises impact volatility in emerging Asian stock markets.
method By-window EGARCH/TGARCH analysis of daily stock index returns for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines from 2010 to 2024.
result All three markets show strong volatility persistence and fat-tailed returns; crises increase persistence and asymmetry, while tail thickness rises.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for individual stocks and show that the phenomenon is closely linked to the well-known …
The study introduces new liquidity measures and models for assets with extreme liquidity.
problem Modeling assets with extreme liquidity, especially in crypto markets.
method Developed innovative liquidity premium measures, liquidity-adjusted return and volatility models, and used ARMA-GARCH/EGARCH models.
result The liquidity-adjusted models outperform traditional models in predicting asset performance at extreme liquidity.
We propose a multifractal model for short-term interest rates. The model is a version of the Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM), which incorporates the well-known level effect observed in interest rates. Unlike previously suggested models, the level-MSM model captures the power-law scaling of the structure functions a…
Study examines cryptocurrency impacts on financial indices using advanced risk models.
problem Interdependence between cryptocurrencies and financial indices, focusing on risk spillover.
method Hybrid approach integrating GARCH, EVT, and copula functions for risk measures.
result eGARCH-EVT-Copula model outperforms conventional methods in risk estimation.
The paper explores how score-driven models can approximate rough volatility.
problem Modeling rough volatility with long memory structures.
method Extending score-driven models to include infinite-lag structures and heavy-tailed decay.
result Score-driven models converge to fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes under appropriate scaling.
Study finds ESG investments more resilient than traditional equity indices during market turmoil.
problem Resilience of ESG investments during financial instability.
method Daily returns analysis using MGND and EGARCH-in-mean models.
result ESG investments show higher resilience compared to traditional equity indices during crises.
New financial volatility models capture dynamic volatility better.
problem Traditional volatility models miss important volatility dynamics.
method Integrate recurrent neural networks into GARCH models.
result Improved in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasting.
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models) and the two-regime Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) …
Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare …
Criterion for realizing groups on Enriques manifolds.
problem Realizing groups on Enriques manifolds.
method Using recent developments in Birman-Hilden theory and Nielsen realization for hyper-Kähler manifolds.
result Numerical criterion for realizing groups on Enriques manifolds.
Machine learning predicts Bitcoin returns but trading performance drops with costs.
problem Trading Bitcoin predictions with transaction costs.
method XGBoost, LSTM, iTransformer models evaluated in walk-forward protocol; cost-aware execution filter implemented.
result Cost-aware execution filter restores profitability; XGBoost strategy outperforms.
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized variance or daily returns, is employed in the realized GARCH framework. Further, sub-s…
We study realizations of Lie algebras by vector fields. A correspondence between classification of transitive local realizations and classification of subalgebras is generalized to the case of regular local realizations. A reasonable classification problem for general realizations is rigorously formulated and an algori…
A new model framework called Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (Realized-CARE) is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the conventional CARE model, in a manner analogous to the Realized-GARCH model. Competing realized measures (e.g. Realized Variance and Realized Range) are employed a…
Hybrid GARCH-GRU model improves volatility forecasting for financial assets.
problem Improving volatility and risk forecasting for financial assets.
method Combining GARCH models with GRU neural networks.
result Hybrid models produce more accurate volatility forecasts.
The paper examines circle graphs of Gauss diagrams and finds counterexamples to previous descriptions.
problem Problems with previous descriptions of realizable Gauss diagrams.
method Experimental checking and formulation of new descriptions of realizable circle graphs.
result New descriptions of realizable circle graphs and an algorithm for checking realizability.
VOLARE provides standardized realized volatility measures from financial data.
problem Lack of standardized realized volatility measures from ultra-high-frequency data.
method Asset-specific pipeline for cleaning and sampling data, providing a wide range of realized estimators.
result Comprehensive set of realized estimators for equities, exchange rates, and futures.
Incorrect parity-based descriptions of realizable Gauss diagrams found, but bipartite graphs provide a valid approach.
problem Incorrect descriptions of realizable Gauss diagrams using parity conditions.
method Used bipartite graphs to describe realizable Gauss diagrams.
result Realizable Gauss diagrams can be accurately described using bipartite graphs.
The abstract discusses convergent realizations of Lie subalgebras in control theory.
problem Characterizing Lie subalgebras that can be realized as convergent vector fields.
method Generalizations and reformulations of algebraic properties for output realization.
result Recovery and clarification of previous results on control-affine systems and realization of Chen-Fliess series.
Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of the Indian rupee vis a vis the US Dollar. Further, factors reflecting political…
We give a characterization of conformal classes realizing a compact manifold's Yamabe invariant. This characterization is the analogue of an observation of Nadirashvili for metrics realizing the maximal first eigenvalue, and of Fraser and Schoen for metrics realizing the maximal first Steklov eigenvalue.
New bandit algorithm works without realizability assumption.
problem Contextual bandit problems without realizability assumption.
method Computes a constrained regression problem in every epoch, ensuring similar regret guarantees as realizability-based algorithms.
result Ensures similar regret guarantees as realizability-based algorithms, up to a misspecification term.
Realized moments of higher order computed from intraday returns are introduced in recent years. The literature indicates that realized skewness is an important factor in explaining future asset returns. However, the literature mainly focuses on the whole market and on the monthly or weekly scale. In this paper, we cond…
Study examines asymmetry impacts on Japanese stock market volatility modeling and forecasting.
problem Understanding asymmetry's impact on modeling and forecasting realized volatility in Japanese stock markets.
method Employed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models with three types of asymmetry: positive and negative realized semivariance, asymmetric jumps, and leverage effects.
result Leverage effects significantly influence realized volatility modeling and forecast performance in Japanese stock markets.
We study Legendrian and transverse realizations of the negative torus knots T(p,−q) in all contact structures on the 3-sphere. We give a complete classification of the strongly non-loose transverse realizations and the strongly non-loose Legendrian realizations with the Thurston-Bennequin invariant smaller than …
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
Solves asymptotic An-realization problem for curves.
problem Realization problem for plane curves.
method Asymptotic analysis of smooth An-realization. result Determines cobordism distance between specific knot types.
We study distributions of realized variance (squared realized volatility) and squared implied volatility, as represented by VIX and VXO indices. We find that Generalized Beta distribution provide the best fits. These fits are much more accurate for realized variance than for squared VIX and VXO -- possibly another indi…
This paper considers the power of deep neural networks (deep nets for short) in realizing data features. Based on refined covering number estimates, we find that, to realize some complex data features, deep nets can improve the performances of shallow neural networks (shallow nets for short) without requiring additiona…
We undertake a systematic comparison between implied volatility, as represented by VIX (new methodology) and VXO (old methodology), and realized volatility. We compare visually and statistically distributions of realized and implied variance (volatility squared) and study the distribution of their ratio. We find that t…
Study algebraic obstructions to knot-like complex realizability.
problem Algebraic obstructions to knot-like complex realizability.
method Classification of local equivalence classes over F[U,V]. result Classification answers a question about knot-like complexes.
The study predicts stock volatility using LSTM and GARCH models.
problem Accurately predicting stock price volatility is challenging.
method Multiple volatility models (GARCH, GJR-GARCH, EGARCH, LSTM) applied to three sectors.
result LSTM outperformed other models in pharma sector volatility prediction.
We analyze realized volatilities constructed using high-frequency stock data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In order to avoid non-trading hours issue in volatility calculations we define two realized volatilities calculated separately in the two trading sessions of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, i.e. morning and afternoon ses…
Study compares adaptive vs fixed query learning methods.
problem Comparing adaptive and fixed query learning methods for task approximation.
method Examined in-context and agentic learning in two settings: unrestricted and realizable.
result Adaptivity does not hinder performance in unrestricted setting but can in realizable setting.
Researchers solve Nielsen Realization problems for K3 surfaces in various categories.
problem Realizing finite groups of mapping classes as diffeomorphisms, isometries, or automorphisms in K3 surfaces.
method Introduced a computable invariant LG and constructed an S4 action by isometries. result Some finite groups are realizable while others are not, depending on preserved structures.
Investigates conditions for GKM fiber bundles and realizability of fiber bundles of GKM graphs.
problem Conditions for GKM fiber bundles and realizability of fiber bundles of GKM graphs.
method Analysis of GKM graphs and fiber bundles, counterexamples, and classification of twist automorphisms.
result Realizability of fiber bundles of GKM graphs depends on the twist automorphism and can be decided in terms of the classification.
Bayesian framework forecasts financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
problem Forecasting financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
method Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for model estimation; nonlinear threshold regression specification.
result The proposed framework produces competitive tail risk forecasts compared to GARCH and Realized-GARCH models.
We introduce the notion of partial presimplicial set and construct its geometric realization. We show that any semiadequate diagram yields a partial presimplicial set leading to a geometric realization of the almost-extreme Khovanov homology of the diagram. We give a concrete formula for the homotopy type of this geome…
Groups of homotopy equivalences of graphs help realize compact subgroups.
problem Realizing compact subgroups of homotopy equivalences of graphs.
method Introduced a Polish group topology on the group of proper homotopy equivalences and proved the Nielsen Realization theorem.
result Compact subgroups of homotopy equivalences can be realized by simplicial isomorphisms of graphs.
Dehn twists on K3-type 4-manifolds are not homotopy coherently Nielsen realizable.
problem Homotopy coherent Nielsen realization problem for Dehn twists on 4-manifolds
method Using family Seiberg-Witten theory
result Failure of the classical Nielsen realization problem in K3-type 4-manifolds
Abstraction and realization are bilateral processes that are key in deriving intelligence and creativity. In many domains, the two processes are approached through rules: high-level principles that reveal invariances within similar yet diverse examples. Under a probabilistic setting for discrete input spaces, we focus …