Bayesian realized EGARCH models improve tail risk forecasting.
problem Forecasting tail risks in financial markets.
method Developed a Bayesian framework for realized EGARCH models, incorporating multiple realized volatility measures and using robust adaptive Metropolis algorithm for estimation.
result Standardized skewed Student-t distribution and sub-sampled realized range models outperform other models in tail risk forecasting.
A new model framework called Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (Realized-CARE) is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the conventional CARE model, in a manner analogous to the Realized-GARCH model. Competing realized measures (e.g. Realized Variance and Realized Range) are employed a…
Study examines asymmetry impacts on Japanese stock market volatility modeling and forecasting.
problem Understanding asymmetry's impact on modeling and forecasting realized volatility in Japanese stock markets.
method Employed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models with three types of asymmetry: positive and negative realized semivariance, asymmetric jumps, and leverage effects.
result Leverage effects significantly influence realized volatility modeling and forecast performance in Japanese stock markets.
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized variance or daily returns, is employed in the realized GARCH framework. Further, sub-s…
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
VOLARE provides standardized realized volatility measures from financial data.
problem Lack of standardized realized volatility measures from ultra-high-frequency data.
method Asset-specific pipeline for cleaning and sampling data, providing a wide range of realized estimators.
result Comprehensive set of realized estimators for equities, exchange rates, and futures.
New bandit algorithm works without realizability assumption.
problem Contextual bandit problems without realizability assumption.
method Computes a constrained regression problem in every epoch, ensuring similar regret guarantees as realizability-based algorithms.
result Ensures similar regret guarantees as realizability-based algorithms, up to a misspecification term.
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected Shortfall (ES) components, to jointly estimate and forecast VaR and ES. The measu…
Realized GARCH model explains VIX and VRP dynamics.
problem Understanding VIX and VRP dynamics in financial markets.
method Developed Realized GARCH model with two shocks.
result Realized GARCH model outperforms conventional GARCH models.
Bayesian framework forecasts financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
problem Forecasting financial tail risks using realized volatility and nonlinear thresholds.
method Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for model estimation; nonlinear threshold regression specification.
result The proposed framework produces competitive tail risk forecasts compared to GARCH and Realized-GARCH models.
New active learning framework for multiclass classification beyond realizability assumption.
problem Active learning in non-realizable settings with convex model classes.
method Surrogate risk minimization, epoch-based fitting, aggregation of models.
result Achieves label and sample complexity comparable to prior work in non-realizable settings.
We show that every Kaehler affine curvature model can be realized geometrically.
We show any Riemannian curvature model can be geometrically realized by a manifold with constant scalar curvature. We also show that any pseudo-Hermitian curvature model, para-Hermitian curvature model, hyper-pseudo-Hermitian curvature model, or hyper-para-Hermitian curvature model can be realized by a manifold with co…
Enhanced volatility model using LSTM and realized volatility.
problem Volatility modeling in financial markets.
method Combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures in a Bayesian framework.
result Superior predictive performance compared to benchmark models.
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
problem Improving asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Integrates dynamic gamma process with DLMs for price and realized volatility.
result Significant improvements in asset price forecasting compared to standard models.
We show that a Hermitian algebraic curvature model satisfies the Gray identity if and only if it is geometrically realizable by a Hermitian manifold. Furthermore, such a curvature model can in fact be realized by a Hermitian manifold of constant scalar curvature and constant *-scalar curvature which satisfies the Kaehl…
The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.
problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.
We investigate the existence of affine realizations for term structure models driven by Lévy processes. It turns out that we obtain more severe restrictions on the volatility than in the classical diffusion case without jumps. As special cases, we study constant direction volatilities and the existence of short rate re…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo m…
We undertake a systematic comparison between implied volatility, as represented by VIX (new methodology) and VXO (old methodology), and realized volatility. We compare visually and statistically distributions of realized and implied variance (volatility squared) and study the distribution of their ratio. We find that t…
We show that a para-Hermitian algebraic curvature model satisfies the para-Gray identity if and only if it is geometrically realizable by a para-Hermitian manifold. This requires extending the Tricerri-Vanhecke curvature decomposition to the para-Hermitian setting. Additionally, the geometric realization can be chosen …
We develop a tractable model of realization utility that studies the role of reference-dependent S-shaped preferences in a dynamic investment setting with reinvestment. Our model generates both voluntarily realized gains and losses. It makes specific predictions about the volume of gains and losses, the holding periods…
We show any Weyl curvature model can be geometrically realized by a Weyl manifold
We show that every Kaehler algebraic curvature tensor is geometrically realizable by a Kaehler manifold of constant scalar curvature. We also show that every para-Kaehler algebraic curvature tensor is geometrically realizable by a para-Kaehler manifold of constant scalar curvature
A new perspective on portfolio selection using realized returns.
problem Choosing between two investments with the same expected return.
method Modeling realized returns as random variables and applying the CAPM formula.
result The CAPM formula applies to realized returns, not just their expectations.
Abstraction and realization are bilateral processes that are key in deriving intelligence and creativity. In many domains, the two processes are approached through rules: high-level principles that reveal invariances within similar yet diverse examples. Under a probabilistic setting for discrete input spaces, we focus …
New method improves dictionary recovery from over-realized models.
problem Theoretical guarantees for model recovery in dictionary learning are limited.
method Search over larger over-realized models to facilitate dictionary recovery.
result Model recovery can be upper-bounded by empirical risk and generalization gap.
Investigates Bitcoin market risk, showing volatility and jumps impact future volatility.
problem Understanding and forecasting the risk dynamics of Bitcoin market.
method Comprehensive investigation using realized volatility and jumps analysis.
result Jumps, especially positive ones, reduce future realized variance; long-term realized variance benefits from modeling jumps.
Criterion for realizing groups on Enriques manifolds.
problem Realizing groups on Enriques manifolds.
method Using recent developments in Birman-Hilden theory and Nielsen realization for hyper-Kähler manifolds.
result Numerical criterion for realizing groups on Enriques manifolds.
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard normal variables. This is the first evidence that the return dynamics of the spin fi…
Lower bounds on Bayes risk for realizable models derived using information theory.
problem Deriving lower bounds on Bayes risk for realizable machine learning models.
method Information-theoretic analysis using rate-distortion theory and mutual information.
result Lower bounds on Bayes risk for realizable models, matching known bounds up to logarithmic factors.
Study forecasts volatility and risk in electricity markets using matrix-HAR models.
problem Forecasting volatility and risk in electricity markets.
method Constructed a parsimonious matrix-HAR type model to estimate realized covariation and risk premia in electricity markets.
result Inclusion of longer time horizons and renewable generation information improves forecasts.
The paper studies multi-curve interest rate models and their consistency and finite-dimensional realizations.
problem Consistency and existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve interest rate models.
method Geometric approach, characterizing consistency and existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve models.
result Characterization of consistency and existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve models.
Unified framework for realizable and agnostic learning.
problem Lack of a unified theory for realizable and agnostic learnability.
method Three-line blackbox reduction.
result Unified understanding across various learning settings.
The study compares econometric and deep learning models for forecasting COMEX copper futures volatility.
problem Forecasting volatility of COMEX copper futures across different time intervals.
method Econometric models (GARCH, HAR) and deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU) applied to daily and hourly data.
result Deep learning models outperform econometric models in hourly data, but HAR remains the best overall for daily data.
The paper introduces a dynamic MVP model using high-frequency financial data.
problem Capturing the dynamics of minimum variance portfolio weights in financial markets.
method Imposes autoregressive structure on MVP processes and uses CLIME and LASSO for estimation.
result Proposes DR-MVP model with established asymptotic properties.
We study realizations of Lie algebras by vector fields. A correspondence between classification of transitive local realizations and classification of subalgebras is generalized to the case of regular local realizations. A reasonable classification problem for general realizations is rigorously formulated and an algori…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the influence of different timescales on volatility forecasts. The decomposition of …
RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.
problem Efficiently forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) with long-memory and non-linear realized volatility.
method Loss-based generalized Bayesian inference with Sequential Monte Carlo for model estimation and prediction.
result RNN-HAR model consistently outperforms other VaR forecasting models.
Study realizes symplectic algebras and homotopy types on manifolds.
problem Realizing symplectic algebras and homotopy types on manifolds.
method Addressing questions on realizability of symplectic algebras and rational homotopy types by closed symplectic manifolds.
result Realization of symplectic algebras and homotopy types in various dimensions.
We introduce wavelet-based methodology for estimation of realized variance allowing its measurement in the time-frequency domain. Using smooth wavelets and Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, we allow for the decomposition of the realized variance into several investment horizons and jumps. Basing our estimator…
TensorPlan algorithm finds δ-optimal policies with poly(H,d) queries under linearly realizable state-value function.
problem Efficient planning in MDPs with linearly realizable state-value function.
method TensorPlan algorithm using poly((dH/δ)A) simulator queries. result First algorithm with polynomial query complexity using only linear-realizability of a single competing value function.
The paper optimizes RV estimation by efficient sampling in time-changed diffusion models.
problem Improving realized variance (RV) estimation in time-changed diffusion models.
method Theoretical analysis and simulations of hitting time and realized business time sampling schemes.
result Realized business time sampling is empirically most efficient for high noise levels.
This paper develops copula-based models for forecasting multivariate realized volatility.
problem Forecasting multivariate realized volatility matrices with hidden dependence structure.
method Copula-based time series models to capture hidden dependence structure and ensure positive definiteness.
result Copula-based models achieve significant performance in volatility matrix forecasting.
The paper examines circle graphs of Gauss diagrams and finds counterexamples to previous descriptions.
problem Problems with previous descriptions of realizable Gauss diagrams.
method Experimental checking and formulation of new descriptions of realizable circle graphs.
result New descriptions of realizable circle graphs and an algorithm for checking realizability.
Solves a problem related to Nielsen realization for certain groups.
problem Whether a cocompact proper topological manifold is equivariantly homotopy equivalent to a classifying space.
method Assumes a zero-dimensional singular set and uses properties of hyperbolic groups and aspherical manifolds.
result Solves the problem for specific groups containing a normal torsion-free subgroup.
The abstract discusses convergent realizations of Lie subalgebras in control theory.
problem Characterizing Lie subalgebras that can be realized as convergent vector fields.
method Generalizations and reformulations of algebraic properties for output realization.
result Recovery and clarification of previous results on control-affine systems and realization of Chen-Fliess series.
Incorrect parity-based descriptions of realizable Gauss diagrams found, but bipartite graphs provide a valid approach.
problem Incorrect descriptions of realizable Gauss diagrams using parity conditions.
method Used bipartite graphs to describe realizable Gauss diagrams.
result Realizable Gauss diagrams can be accurately described using bipartite graphs.