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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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78156233311 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for real-world games

Study shows Elo models fail to accurately measure transitive strength in competitive games.

problem Elo models fail to correctly identify the transitive component in real-world competitive games.
method Investigated the challenge of identifying the transitive component in games, proposed an extension of the Elo score.
result Disc ranking system assigns two scores: skill and consistency.

Expands MFGs to handle real-world asymmetric multi-agent games efficiently.

problem Applying mean-field games to real-world, heterogeneous multi-agent systems.
method Develops a method to symmetrize and extend finite-player games to infinite-player MFGs, proving approximation bounds and convergence guarantees.
result TD learning converges to approximate Nash equilibria in finite-sample settings, enabling symmetrized learning without explicit MFG models.

Paper presents content-based models for game recommendation in cold start scenarios.

problem Cold start problem in game recommendation where new games and players have no historical data.
method Uses survey data to develop content-based interaction models that generalize to new games, players, and both.
result Content models outperform collaborative filtering in predicting new interactions.

Even when confronted with the same data, agents often disagree on a model of the real-world. Here, we address the question of how interacting heterogenous agents, who disagree on what model the real-world follows, optimize their trading actions. The market has latent factors that drive prices, and agents account for th…

2018-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

A brief review is given of the minority game, an idealized model stimulated by a market of speculative agents, and its complex many-body behaviour. Particular consideration is given to analytic results for the model rather than discussions of its relevance in real-world situations.

2005-12-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Potential games, originally introduced in the early 1990's by Lloyd Shapley, the 2012 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and his colleague Dov Monderer, are a very important class of models in game theory. They have special properties such as the existence of Nash equilibria in pure strategies. This note introduces graphical…

2015-05-06abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce CSE for MLSF games and devise online learning algorithms for achieving no-external Stackelberg-regret.

problem Learning equilibrium in leader-follower games with noisy bandit feedback.
method Proposed Correlated Stackelberg Equilibrium (CSE) and online learning algorithms balancing exploration and exploitation.
result Achieves no-external Stackelberg-regret, converging to approximate CSE.

This work presents a game-theoretic method for AVs that handles imperfect communication and individual rewards.

problem Real-time, imperfect communication and individual rewards in multi-agent interactions.
method Game-theoretic approach that allows for imperfect communication and individual rewards.
result More realistic assumptions lead to better reward inference and prediction of future actions.

The paper tackles Nash-regret minimization in congestion games with bandit feedback.

problem Minimizing Nash-regret in congestion games with bandit feedback.
method Proposes centralized and decentralized algorithms for congestion games with bandit feedback, and a centralized algorithm for Markov congestion games.
result Sample complexity depends polynomially on the number of players and facilities, not the size of the action set.

CGAs estimate team performance from data, simplifying SV computation.

problem Predicting and rewarding team performance using game theory.
method Cooperative game abstractions (CGAs) for estimating characteristic functions from data.
result CGAs enable linear-time computation of Shapley Value for team contributions.

End-to-end model predicts multiagent trajectories using game theory and neural nets.

problem Predicting trajectories of interacting agents in complex scenarios.
method Hybrid neural net with game-theoretic reasoning, using implicit layers to map preferences to Nash equilibria.
result Trains an interpretable model that predicts future trajectories and transfers to decision making.

To solve complex real-world problems with reinforcement learning, we cannot rely on manually specified reward functions. Instead, we can have humans communicate an objective to the agent directly. In this work, we combine two approaches to learning from human feedback: expert demonstrations and trajectory preferences. …

2018-11-15abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper tackles learning Stackelberg equilibrium in asymmetric games efficiently from noisy samples.

problem Learning Stackelberg equilibrium in asymmetric, general-sum games efficiently from noisy samples.
method The paper initiates the theoretical study of sample-efficient learning of the Stackelberg equilibrium in bandit feedback setting.
result Sharp positive results on sample-efficient learning of Stackelberg equilibrium with value optimal up to a fundamental gap identified.

We consider the problem of learning to play a repeated multi-agent game with an unknown reward function. Single player online learning algorithms attain strong regret bounds when provided with full information feedback, which unfortunately is unavailable in many real-world scenarios. Bandit feedback alone, i.e., observ…

2019-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for feature-based explanations using ANOVA and game theory.

problem Differences between feature-based explanations methods limit their applicability.
method Introduces a unified framework combining fANOVA and cooperative game theory.
result Uncovered similarities and differences between various explanation techniques.

GeoShapley uses game theory to measure spatial effects in ML models.

problem Measuring the impact of location on machine learning model predictions.
method Extends Shapley value framework to quantify spatial effects in various ML models.
result Validated GeoShapley values against known processes and demonstrated utility in house price modeling.

Innovative game theory approach optimizes survival analysis metrics.

problem Survival analysis models trained with maximum likelihood do not directly optimize criteria like Brier score or Bernoulli log likelihood.
method Inverse-Weighted Survival Games: Construct objectives from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, holding the latter fixed during training.
result Games optimize Brier score on simulations and real-world data.

Maximizing product use is a central goal of many businesses, which makes retention and monetization two central analytics metrics in games. Player retention may refer to various duration variables quantifying product use: total playtime or session playtime are popular research targets, and active playtime is well-suite…

2017-01-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimistic Thompson Sampling reduces regret in unknown multi-player games.

problem Navigating uncertainty in unknown multi-player games with strategic decision-making.
method Introduces Thompson Sampling algorithms that exploit opponents' actions and reward structures.
result Achieves over tenfold improvements in experimental budgets with logarithmic regret bound.

Individuals, or organizations, cooperate with or compete against one another in a wide range of practical situations. Such strategic interactions are often modeled as games played on networks, where an individual's payoff depends not only on her action but also on that of her neighbors. The current literature has large…

2018-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Anomaly detection method tackles hidden adversary actions in real-world scenarios.

problem Detecting hidden adversary actions in real-world scenarios where the defender cannot perfectly observe the attacker's actions.
method Extends existing anomaly detection models to handle continuous action spaces and game-theoretic framework. Proposes two algorithms: direct extension and learning-based approach.
result Learning-based approach produces less exploitable strategies and is scalable to higher dimensions.

Paper proposes an RL algorithm to ensure policy performance guarantees.

problem Lack of performance guarantees for RL policies compared to baselines.
method Online model-free algorithm that ensures conservative exploration.
result Regret bound of ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) for both discrete and continuous spaces.

A game-theoretic approach simplifies MBRL design and improves sample efficiency.

problem Designing stable and efficient MBRL algorithms using rich function approximators.
method Develops a game-theoretic framework where MBRL is modeled as a Stackelberg game between policy and model players.
result Proposed algorithms are highly sample efficient and match asymptotic performance of model-free policy gradient.

Game-theoretic model captures investor interactions for stock price forecasting.

problem Complex market dynamics driving stock price movements.
method Game-theoretic modeling of heterogeneous investor interactions in a dynamic graph structure.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods.

New method attributes feature uncertainty in ML models using cooperative game theory.

problem Lack of feature-level uncertainty attribution in explainable AI.
method Proposes a novel, model-agnostic uncertainty attribution method using cooperative game theory and conformal prediction.
result Demonstrates improved runtime efficiency and practical utility in real-world applications.

Game theory approach to predicting and responding to interventions based on causal relationships.

problem Optimizing predictions and interventions in response to observational data.
method Prediction-intervention game framework, focusing on invariant subsets of covariates.
result Stable-blanket predictors are optimal for certain follower objectives and under specific conditions.

This paper studies robust payoff allocation in submodular games, especially against replication.

problem Payoff allocation in submodular games, especially robustness against replication.
method Systematically studied replication manipulation in submodular games, introduced replication robustness metric, and validated with empirical ML data market.
result Conditions characterizing robustness of semivalues in submodular games.

JPS improves joint policies for multi-agent collaboration in imperfect information games.

problem Learning good joint policies for multi-agent collaboration with imperfect information.
method Decomposes global changes to localized policy changes, iteratively improving joint policies without re-evaluating the entire game.
result JPS improves solutions provided by unilateral approaches and outperforms algorithms designed for collaborative policy learning.

New approach reduces simulator exploitation by improving strategic robustness.

problem Simulator exploitation leading to reality gap between simulation and real-world performance.
method Formulated as a zero-sum minimax game, providing theoretical guarantees and a convergent active data selection algorithm.
result Proves convergence and reduces prediction error in strategically important regions by 1.5-2.2 times.

New approach reduces simulator exploitation by learning robust models.

problem Simulator exploitation leading to reality gap in reinforcement learning.
method Formulated as a zero-sum minimax game between model player and policy player, providing theoretical guarantees and a convergent active data selection algorithm.
result Reduces prediction error in strategically important regions by 1.5-2.2 times and enables near-optimal real-world performance.

NeuPL learns diverse policies in strategy games efficiently.

problem Iterative training of policies in strategy games leads to under-trained good-responses and wasteful repetition.
method NeuPL uses a single conditional model to represent a population of policies, offering convergence guarantees and transfer learning.
result NeuPL achieves better performance and efficiency across various domains, enabling access to novel strategies.

DPFRL uses particle filters for decision making with complex visual observations.

problem Decision making with partial complex visual observations.
method Discriminative Particle Filter Reinforcement Learning (DPFRL) with a differentiable particle filter in the neural network policy.
result DPFRL outperforms state-of-the-art POMDP RL models in complex visual observation tasks.

Constructing agents with planning capabilities has long been one of the main challenges in the pursuit of artificial intelligence. Tree-based planning methods have enjoyed huge success in challenging domains, such as chess and Go, where a perfect simulator is available. However, in real-world problems the dynamics gove…

2019-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces a new model to improve exotic option pricing.

problem Challenges in pricing exotic options and structured products due to market phenomena.
method Introduces a Diffusion-Conditional Probability Model (DDPM) with a composite loss function and P-Q dynamic game framework.
result The DDPM outperforms traditional models in dynamic games for European and Asian options, but underestimates tail risks.

A core novelty of Alpha Zero is the interleaving of tree search and deep learning, which has proven very successful in board games like Chess, Shogi and Go. These games have a discrete action space. However, many real-world reinforcement learning domains have continuous action spaces, for example in robotic control, na…

2018-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Research tackles alliance formation in many-player zero-sum games, showing reinforcement learning fails but a contract mechanism can help.

problem Tackles the challenge of alliance formation in many-player zero-sum games.
method Demonstrates the social dilemma aspect of alliance formation, introduces a contract mechanism to augment reinforcement learning.
result Naïve reinforcement learning fails to form alliances, but a contract mechanism can help.

As mobile devices become more and more popular, mobile gaming has emerged as a promising market with billion-dollar revenues. A variety of mobile game platforms and services have been developed around the world. A critical challenge for these platforms and services is to understand the churn behavior in mobile games, w…

2019-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗