We propose a probabilistic graphical model realizing a minimal encoding of real variables dependencies based on possibly incomplete observation and an empirical cumulative distribution function per variable. The target application is a large scale partially observed system, like e.g. a traffic network, where a small pr…
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48 results for “real variable method”
VC-PCR improves prediction by clustering correlated variables.
problem Decreased prediction accuracy due to cluster structure in predictor variables.
method Supervised variable selection and clustering to integrate cluster information into a sparse modeling process.
result VC-PCR achieves better prediction, variable selection, and clustering performance.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Proposes a method to allocate time budgets in mixed criticality systems.
problem Managing execution time variability in mixed criticality systems.
method Quantifies execution time variability using statistical dispersion parameters and proposes a heuristic to allocate time budgets.
result The proposed heuristic reduces the probability of exceeding allocated budgets.
We describe a method to reduce partial differential equations of Monge-Ampère type in 4 variables to complex partial differential equations in 2 variables. To illustrate this method, we construct explicit holomorphic solutions of the special lagrangian equation, the real Monge-Ampère equations and the Plebanski equatio…
GPLVMF improves CARS performance by addressing overfitting and context importance.
problem Overfitting and lack of automatic context importance determination in GP-based CARS.
method GPLVMF applies a non-zero mean function and real-valued latent space to improve GP model performance.
result Significant improvement in performance on real datasets and automatic context importance determination.
Blind source separation is a common processing tool to analyse the constitution of pixels of hyperspectral images. Such methods usually suppose that pure pixel spectra (endmembers) are the same in all the image for each class of materials. In the framework of remote sensing, such an assumption is no more valid in the p…
Paper develops IV method for consistent OPE in confounded MDPs.
problem Confounding variables in observational data affect OPE effectiveness.
method Instrumental variable approach for consistent off-policy evaluation.
result IV method enables correct identification of target policy's value.
Efficiently learns and transports posterior densities for real-time inference.
problem High computational cost of Bayesian inference for complex posterior densities.
method Tensor-train (TT) format for offline learning, conditional transport for online inference.
result Significant improvement in inference performance for high-dimensional problems.
Paper proposes a new method for Bayesian linear regression using spike-and-slab priors.
problem Identifying predictors with similar relationships in linear regression models.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with spike-and-slab priors and a Gibbs sampler.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in simulations and real data analysis.
Paper proposes a new method to identify causal graphs with latent variables using higher-order cumulants.
problem Estimating causal directed acyclic graphs with latent confounders.
method Uses higher-order cumulants to identify causal structures among observed and latent variables.
result Validates the proposed algorithm through simulations and real-world data.
New method disentangles latent factors for better treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data when confounders are not the only variables.
method Variational inference to disentangle latent factors into instrumental, confounding, and risk factors.
result The method improves treatment effect estimation accuracy on various datasets.
Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the objective function, typically a Gaussian process (GP), upon which an acquisition f…
We propose a new method for input variable selection in nonlinear regression. The method is embedded into a kernel regression machine that can model general nonlinear functions, not being a priori limited to additive models. This is the first kernel-based variable selection method applicable to large datasets. It sides…
In this paper, we propose a variable selection method for general nonparametric kernel-based estimation. The proposed method consists of two-stage estimation: (1) construct a consistent estimator of the target function, (2) approximate the estimator using a few variables by l1-type penalized estimation. We see that the…
Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situation…
DYNOTEARS learns connections between variables over time, outperforming other methods.
problem Learning dynamic Bayesian networks from time-series data.
method Score-based approach minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint.
result DYNOTEARS outperforms other methods on simulated and real data.
A new model captures variability in time series data.
problem Capturing high variability in time series data.
method Temporal latent variables and dynamic weight modifications.
result Demonstrated efficacy on various sequential data.
New method learns differential equations from data with hidden variables.
problem Learning differential equations from data with hidden variables.
method Sparse linear regression optimization problem with higher order time derivatives and dictionary of functions.
result High quality short-term forecasts with orders of magnitude faster than competing methods.
New method detects causal relationships from noisy measurements.
problem Discover causal relationships from noisy, imperfect measurements.
method Transformed Independent Noise (TIN) condition and ordered group decomposition.
result Identifies causal graph structure without over-complete ICA.
On the Effects of Irrelevant Variables in Treatment Effect Estimation with Deep Disentanglementcs.LG
New method better identifies irrelevant variables for more accurate treatment effect estimation.
problem Handling irrelevant variables in treatment effect estimation with deep disentanglement.
method Deep embedding method to disentangle pre-treatment variables, explicitly identify and represent irrelevant variables, and orthogonalize them.
result Better identification and representation of irrelevant variables lead to more precise treatment effect prediction.
Extends causal discovery to group variables, improving performance in real-world applications.
problem Inferring cause-effect relationships from grouped data.
method Two-step approach: infer causal order and select models.
result Strong performance in simulations and real-world assembly line data.
Direct contextual policy search methods learn to improve policy parameters and simultaneously generalize these parameters to different context or task variables. However, learning from high-dimensional context variables, such as camera images, is still a prominent problem in many real-world tasks. A naive application o…
Variable selection for Gaussian process models is often done using automatic relevance determination, which uses the inverse length-scale parameter of each input variable as a proxy for variable relevance. This implicitly determined relevance has several drawbacks that prevent the selection of optimal input variables i…
Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable cova…
The paper calculates asymptotic expansions for specific types of oscillatory integrals.
problem Analyzing oscillatory integrals with complex phase functions.
method Using asymptotic expansions of simpler phase functions to derive results for more complex cases.
result Explicit computation of coefficients in asymptotic expansions for certain integrals.
An approximate method for conducting resampling in Lasso, the penalized linear regression, in a semi-analytic manner is developed, whereby the average over the resampled datasets is directly computed without repeated numerical sampling, thus enabling an inference free of the statistical fluctuations due to sam…
The paper proposes a method to stabilize predictions by identifying causal variables using a seed variable.
problem Stable prediction across unknown test data with potential spurious correlations.
method Conditional independence test based algorithm using a seed variable to separate causal from non-causal variables.
result The algorithm precisely separates causal and non-causal variables for stable prediction across test data.
Proposes a new variable grouping approach to improve Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) performance.
problem Improving the predictive performance of BART by reducing nonlinear interactions.
method Variable grouping to identify and separate variables into groups with no nonlinear interactions.
result The proposed GBART method significantly outperforms classical approaches in synthetic and real data experiments.
Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.
problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.
We derive a novel sensitivity analysis of input variables for predictive epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We use Bayesian neural networks with latent variables as a model class and illustrate the usefulness of our sensitivity analysis on real-world datasets. Our method increases the interpretability of complex blac…
Proposes a new CBO method without known causal graphs.
problem Optimizing outcomes with unknown causal graphs.
method New CBO method focusing on direct causal parents, learning Bayesian posterior over them.
result Empirical validation and competitive performance with GP approximation.
The paper explores efficient ways to represent categorical data.
problem Wasteful one-hot encoding of categorical variables.
method Investigates alternative, lower-dimensional real-valued representations.
result Proposed methods retain all predictive information without one-hot encoding.
We consider the problem of covariance matrix estimation in the presence of latent variables. Under suitable conditions, it is possible to learn the marginal covariance matrix of the observed variables via a tractable convex program, where the concentration matrix of the observed variables is decomposed into a sparse ma…
A gradient-based variable selection for binary classification in reproducing kernel Hilbert spacestat.ML
Proposes a gradient-based variable selection method for binary classification in RKHS.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data analysis.
method Gradient-based representation of large-margin classifier with group-lasso penalty.
result Selection consistency and risk bound of the estimated classifier.
Proposes a deep latent variable model for MNAR data.
problem Missing data leading to biased results in MAR assumptions.
method Deep latent variable models with conditional no self-censoring.
result Establishes identifiability of MNAR data distribution.
New method for fitting graphical models with latent variables using regularized conditional likelihood.
problem Graphical modeling with latent variables and confounding dependencies.
method Regularized conditional likelihood for exponential family graphical models.
result Framework applicable to broader settings without knowing latent variables' distribution.
MiVaBo optimizes mixed-variable functions efficiently, handling constraints.
problem Optimizing expensive, mixed-variable functions with discrete constraints.
method Combines linear surrogate model and Thompson sampling, optimizing acquisition function.
result First BO method to handle complex constraints over discrete variables.
VarPro selects features without model dependence, achieving balanced performance.
problem Finding a small set of features with high explanatory power.
method Rule-based variable priority approach, avoiding model-specific methods and artificial data.
result VarPro has a consistent filtering property for noise variables and achieves balanced performance.
Many widely studied graphical models with latent variables lead to nontrivial constraints on the distribution of the observed variables. Inspired by the Bell inequalities in quantum mechanics, we refer to any linear inequality whose violation rules out some latent variable model as a "hidden variable test" for that mod…
Method infers causal direction using data discretization and complexity calculation.
problem Determining causal direction between continuous variables.
method MDL Binning technique for data discretization and complexity calculation.
result Captures the shape of the data to determine causal direction.
Bayesian method models binary response and covariates for two groups, estimating causal relationships.
problem Estimating causal relationships between binary response and covariates in observational data.
method Gaussian DAG-probit model with MCMC sampling for posterior distribution estimation.
result Validated method on simulated and real datasets, showing value of grouping variable in causality.
Functional data analysis involves data described by regular functions rather than by a finite number of real valued variables. While some robust data analysis methods can be applied directly to the very high dimensional vectors obtained from a fine grid sampling of functional data, all methods benefit from a prior simp…
Proposes CLIQUE for improved local variable importance in multi-class classification.
problem Lack of methods to characterize local structure in model loss space.
method CLIQUE (Conditional Local Importance by Quantile Expectations)
result CLIQUE emphasizes locally dependent information and captures interaction behavior.
New method learns graphical models with latent variables for extreme events.
problem Learning graphical models with latent variables for multivariate extremes.
method Tractable convex program exttt{eglatent} for Hüsler-Reiss models.
result Consistently recovers conditional graph and latent variables.
Unified Bayesian Optimisation for mixed variables improves performance.
problem Efficient optimisation of problems with both categorical and continuous variables.
method Derive value proposals from the Expected Improvement criterion to optimise both categorical and continuous variables under a single acquisition metric.
result Unified approach significantly outperforms existing methods across mixed-variable tasks.
Reduces bias in linear models by reweighting samples.
problem Bias in linear models due to collinearity among input variables.
method Sample reweighting to reduce collinearity.
result Improves stability of prediction results across different data distributions.
Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary variables are not observed. Utilizing a parametric model of joint distribution of prima…