A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study optimal investment with herd behavior using rational decision decomposition.
In this paper the theory of semi-bounded rationality is proposed as an extension of the theory of bounded rationality. In particular, it is proposed that a decision making process involves two components and these are the correlation machine, which estimates missing values, and the causal machine, which relates the cau…
The theory of rational choice assumes that when people make decisions they do so in order to maximize their utility. In order to achieve this goal they ought to use all the information available and consider all the choices available to choose an optimal choice. This paper investigates what happens when decisions are m…
Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated presentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on i…
The study analyzes when Bayesian averaging over decision trees is reliable.
Paper develops a framework for learning interpretable representations of sequential decision behavior.
Customer behavior is often assumed to follow weak rationality, which implies that adding a product to an assortment will not increase the choice probability of another product in that assortment. However, an increasing amount of research has revealed that customers are not necessarily rational when making decisions. In…
The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first rational, metacognitive account of the Availability bias, formally articulated at Marr's…
New mechanism designs regulate herding in financial markets.
We consider the problem of rational decision making in the presence of nonlinear constraints. By using tools borrowed from spin glass and random matrix theory, we focus on the portfolio optimisation problem. We show that the number of ``optimal'' solutions is generically exponentially large: rationality is thus de fact…
Model captures decision-making under bounded rationality with prior beliefs and market feedback.
Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e. decision-makers are bounded in their rationality. Here we experimentally tested the predic…
Study models human investors' sub-rational behavior in financial markets.
Information-theoretic bounded rationality describes utility-optimizing decision-makers whose limited information-processing capabilities are formalized by information constraints. One of the consequences of bounded rationality is that resource-limited decision-makers can join together to solve decision-making problems …
Bounded rationality investigates utility-optimizing decision-makers with limited information-processing power. In particular, information theoretic bounded rationality models formalize resource constraints abstractly in terms of relative Shannon information, namely the Kullback-Leibler Divergence between the agents' pr…
Paper formalizes Simon's satisficing through FFSD, proving its equivalence to expected utility theory.
We consider a framework involving behavioral economics and machine learning. Rationally inattentive Bayesian agents make decisions based on their posterior distribution, utility function and information acquisition cost Renyi divergence which generalizes Shannon mutual information). By observing these decisions, how ca…
Inferring a person's goal from their behavior is an important problem in applications of AI (e.g. automated assistants, recommender systems). The workhorse model for this task is the rational actor model - this amounts to assuming that people have stable reward functions, discount the future exponentially, and construc…
The article presents a translation of some widespread financial terminology into the language of decision theory. For instance, financial leverage can be regarded as an object of choice or a decision. We show how the optics of decision theory allows perceiving the recently introduced metrics of see-through-leverage, wh…
The paper addresses the difficulty of decision makers trusting AI-assisted predictions and proposes a method to improve confidence values.
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
In this paper the introduction of notion of reference vector paves the way for a combination of classical and social approaches in the framework of referential preferences given by matrix groups. It is shown that individual demand issue from rational decision does not depend on that reference.
Due to the capability of deep learning to perform well in high dimensional problems, deep reinforcement learning agents perform well in challenging tasks such as Atari 2600 games. However, clearly explaining why a certain action is taken by the agent can be as important as the decision itself. Deep reinforcement learni…
Travel decisions tend to exhibit sensitivity to uncertainty and information processing constraints. These behavioural conditions can be characterized by a generative learning process. We propose a data-driven generative model version of rational inattention theory to emulate these behavioural representations. We outlin…
The aim of this work is to address the question of whether we can in principle design rational decision-making agents or artificial intelligences embedded in computable physics such that their decisions are optimal in reasonable mathematical senses. Recent developments in rare event probability estimation, recursive ba…
We analyze and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e., sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic and unconditional strategies) and compare them between each other and with the u…
The free energy functional has recently been proposed as a variational principle for bounded rational decision-making, since it instantiates a natural trade-off between utility gains and information processing costs that can be axiomatically derived. Here we apply the free energy principle to general decision trees tha…
Local explanation frameworks aim to rationalize particular decisions made by a black-box prediction model. Existing techniques are often restricted to a specific type of predictor or based on input saliency, which may be undesirably sensitive to factors unrelated to the model's decision making process. We instead propo…
We introduce a microscopic model of interacting financial agents, where each agent is characterized by two portfolios; money invested in bonds and money invested in stocks. Furthermore, each agent is faced with an optimization problem in order to determine the optimal asset allocation. The stock price evolution is driv…
We establish, for the first time, connections between feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation and tropical geometry --- we show that the family of such neural networks is equivalent to the family of tropical rational maps. Among other things, we deduce that feedforward ReLU neural networks with one hidden laye…
The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on the methods of mean-v…
Human irrationality can improve AI design, study shows.
Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bou…
Selection of input features such as relevant pieces of text has become a common technique of highlighting how complex neural predictors operate. The selection can be optimized post-hoc for trained models or incorporated directly into the method itself (self-explaining). However, an overall selection does not properly c…
New insights into optimal portfolios and ecological equilibria reveal surprising complexity.
Black-box explanation is the problem of explaining how a machine learning model -- whose internal logic is hidden to the auditor and generally complex -- produces its outcomes. Current approaches for solving this problem include model explanation, outcome explanation as well as model inspection. While these techniques …
Generative AI reduces herd behavior in trading, but can also lead to optimal herding.
We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike tra…
Framework enhances AI explainability by aligning with human cognitive models.
New method identifies flawed internal models of the world in animals.
Human decision-making deviates from the optimal solution, that maximizes cumulative rewards, in many situations. Here we approach this discrepancy from the perspective of bounded rationality and our goal is to provide a justification for such seemingly sub-optimal strategies. More specifically we investigate the hypoth…
LLMs mimic human traders in finance, but not as much as expected.
Paper tackles RLHF with DCPPO method, proving near-optimal suboptimality.
Tutorials on preference learning with Gaussian Processes.
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
PiNets provide faithful explanations for neural networks.
Study uses FDA to analyze discount functions of different temperaments.
Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior is an approximately optimal solution to an unknown decision problem. These tech…