A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
Overrides of credit ratings are important correctives of ratings that are determined by statistical rating models. Financial institutions and banking regulators agree on this because on the one hand errors with ratings of corporates or banks can have fatal consequences for the lending institutions and on the other hand…
Developed unbiased estimators for Heston model with stochastic interest rates.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
This paper models short rates with jumps using PDEs.
The paper introduces a new short rate model with memory components.
Approximates bond option volatilities using affine short-rate models.
Method calibrates local volatility and stochastic short rate models for equity-rate dynamics.
We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular…
A novel approach models rating transitions using Lie groups and Deep Learning.
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations in case the short rate is assumed to depend also on other stochastic factors. Ou…
Model credit ratings using economic states with Markov chains.
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
Defines a new short rate model and convexity adjustment formulae.
The Basel II Accords have sparked increased interest in the development of approaches based on internal ratings systems and have initiated the elaboration of models for remote ratings forecasts based on external ones as part of Risk Management and Early Warning Systems. This article evaluates the peculiarities of curre…
This work models overnight rates with jumps and discontinuities, extending classical short-rate models.
This paper analyzes the robust growth rate of leveraged ETFs under uncertain parameters.
Model forecasts motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX rates can be performed effciently through the FFT methodology thanks to the affinit…
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates. Moreover, the diffusion term in the rate dynamics goes to zero when short rates are sma…
Following widely used in visual recognition concept of relative attributes, the article establishes definition of the relative PCA attributes for a class of objects defined by vectors of their parameters. A new rating model (RELARM) is built using relative PCA attribute ranking functions for rating object description a…
Learning-rate schedules for large models match optimization theory closely, leading to better training.
A new model for short rates using pure-jump processes.
New model explains deep learning performance at large learning rates.
Study affine models for alternative risk-free rates and derive caplet pricing formulas.
Models which postulate lognormal dynamics for interest rates which are compounded according to market conventions, such as forward LIBOR or forward swap rates, can be constructed initially in a discrete tenor framework. Interpolating interest rates between maturities in the discrete tenor structure is equivalent to ext…
Study proposes optimal risk-aware interest rates for crypto lending protocols.
Stochastic gradient descent with a large initial learning rate is widely used for training modern neural net architectures. Although a small initial learning rate allows for faster training and better test performance initially, the large learning rate achieves better generalization soon after the learning rate is anne…
The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial and several definitions have been proposed. We establish a theoretical framework f…
We derive explicit valuation formulae for an exotic path-dependent interest rate derivative, namely an option on the composition of LIBOR rates. The formulae are based on Fourier transform methods for option pricing. We consider two models for the evolution of interest rates: an HJM-type forward rate model and a LIBOR-…
New models for short rates show longer periods at higher rates.
Proposes new Monte Carlo methods for calibrating local volatility models with stochastic components.
The paper uses machine learning and Lie groups to improve rating transitions and XVA calculations.
Study introduces new methods to estimate stock return rates.
The paper analyzes insurance risks using stochastic models.
A model explains why 4% is a safe retirement withdrawal rate.
Traders underestimated risk-free rates, leading to poor investments.
High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest rates and inflation, and to construct then real interest rates and finally obta…
Simple models outperformed sophisticated ones in forecasting Turkish lira exchange rates.
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
Examines SOFR derivatives pricing and hedging post-LIBOR discontinuation.
Develops methods to measure and set function-space learning rates in neural networks.
For environmental problems such as global warming future costs must be balanced against present costs. This is traditionally done using an exponential function with a constant discount rate, which reduces the present value of future costs. The result is highly sensitive to the choice of discount rate and has generated …
This paper examines the relationship between Inverse Perpetual Swap contracts, a Bitcoin derivative akin to futures and the margin funding interest rates levied on BitMEX. This paper proves the Heteroskedastic nature of funding rates and goes onto establish a causal relationship between the funding rates and the Bitcoi…
Most of the existing recommender systems use the ratings provided by users on individual items. An additional source of preference information is to use the ratings that users provide on sets of items. The advantages of using preferences on sets are two-fold. First, a rating provided on a set conveys some preference in…
A term structure model in which the short rate is zero is developed as a candidate for a theory of cryptocurrency interest rates. The price processes of crypto discount bonds are worked out, along with expressions for the instantaneous forward rates and the prices of interest-rate derivatives. The model admits function…
IUS framework predicts EUR/USD exchange rate with improved accuracy.
Copula models for sovereign ratings improved by incorporating climate risk.