Model predicts travel time under rare conditions using a vector-space model.
problem Predicting travel time under rare temporal conditions (e.g., holidays, school vacations) is challenging due to limited historical data and other temporal changes.
method Presented a vector-space model for encoding rare temporal conditions, allowing coherent representation learning across different conditions.
result Increased performance for travel time prediction over different baselines when using the vector-space encoding for representing the temporal setting.
Geometric method captures rare topics and temporal alignment in co-author networks.
problem Missing rare topics and smooth temporal alignment in topic modeling.
method Integrates multimodal text and co-author network data using Hellinger distances and Ward's linkage.
result Effective identification of rare topics and visualization of topic drift over time.
TRAKNN detects rare atmospheric trajectories efficiently.
problem Detecting rare atmospheric anomalies over long periods.
method Unsupervised, recurrence-based kNN algorithm.
result Rare trajectories correspond to physical anomalies.
OMBA learns product and user representations for better online market basket analysis.
problem Limited ability to uncover rarely occurring and temporal associations in MBA.
method Jointly learns product and user representations, captures temporal dynamics, scalable online method.
result OMBA outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 21% on real-world datasets.
We link disjoint longitudinal data for rare disease patients using latent representations and mixed-effects regression.
problem Analyzing treatment switches in rare diseases with limited data and changing measurement instruments.
method We embed item values into a shared latent space using variational autoencoders and apply mixed-effects regression to quantify treatment effects.
result Our approach allows for statistical inference and quantifies the impact of treatment switches in spinal muscular atrophy.
TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.
problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.
New test uncovers causal links in rare event dynamics.
problem Causal discovery for rare event phenomena in dynamic systems.
method Nonparametric conditional independence test on time-invariant data.
result Validated across simulated and real-world datasets.
Proposes KStar Diffuser for kinematics-aware bimanual robotic manipulation.
problem Challenges in applying imitation learning to bimanual robotic tasks.
method Integrates physical robot structure into action prediction using a dynamic spatial-temporal graph and differentiable kinematics.
result Effective generation of kinematics-aware actions in both simulation and real-world environments.
Human falls rarely occur; however, detecting falls is very important from the health and safety perspective. Due to the rarity of falls, it is difficult to employ supervised classification techniques to detect them. Moreover, in these highly skewed situations it is also difficult to extract domain specific features to …
New method learns diffusion bridges for rare events.
problem Simulating rare events in diffusion processes.
method Iterative online learning based on self-consistency.
result Strong performance in various empirical settings.
Rare diseases affecting 350 million individuals are commonly associated with delay in diagnosis or misdiagnosis. To improve those patients' outcome, rare disease detection is an important task for identifying patients with rare conditions based on longitudinal medical claims. In this paper, we present a deep learning m…
Generative model simulates rare events for better decision making.
problem Rare events impact decision making but are hard to sample.
method Normalizing Flow coupled with Importance Sampling.
result Accurate estimation of rare events improves decision outcomes.
Reservoir computing predicts chaotic systems for long horizons with sparse updates.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with long horizons using limited data.
method Sparse, time-dependent data inputs into reservoir computing.
result Achieves arbitrarily long prediction horizons for chaotic systems.
Fall detection is an important problem from both the health and machine learning perspective. A fall can lead to severe injuries, long term impairments or even death in some cases. In terms of machine learning, it presents a severely class imbalance problem with very few or no training data for falls owing to the fact …
Unified model improves multi-task learning by accounting for temporal misalignment.
problem Poor predictive performance and uncertainty quantification due to temporal misalignment in multi-task learning.
method Uses Gaussian processes to model correlations and includes a monotonic warp of the input data to account for temporal misalignment.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification in multi-task learning.
This research improves demand forecasting by predicting complete probability density functions using machine learning.
problem Forecasting complete probability density functions for better operational decision making.
method Supervised machine learning method 'Cyclic Boosting' for explainable predictions.
result Predicted probability density functions are fully explainable and avoid 'black-box' models.
WEST uses EHRs and expert cases to improve rare disease phenotyping.
problem Limited labeled data for rare diseases.
method Weakly supervised transformer model trained on probabilistic silver-standard labels.
result WEST outperforms existing methods in phenotype classification and subphenotyping.
New algorithm improves causal discovery in biomedical data.
problem Stability and accuracy issues in causal discovery algorithms.
method Exploits temporal structure and tiered background knowledge.
result Increases accuracy in finite samples for causal structure estimation.
Improved generative models for rare events using nonlinear diffusion.
problem Challenges in modeling rare conditional distributions with linear diffusion models.
method Adapting data representation and forward scheme for nonlinear drift term.
result Significant improvement in capturing extreme tail events.
OracleAD detects multivariate time series anomalies without labels.
problem Rare and unlabeled multivariate time series anomalies.
method OracleAD encodes past sequences into causal embeddings, projects them into a latent space, and identifies anomalies based on deviations from a stable latent structure.
result OracleAD achieves state-of-the-art results and is interpretable.
PHINN: A generative model for rare-event time series using persistent homology
problem Generating rare events in time series
method Flow-matching framework with dynamic Betti curves and persistence landscape loss
result Outperforms statistical and diffusion baselines in topological fidelity and tail coverage
In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings are often overlooked. This is in particular prevalent in interdisciplinary resear…
Introduces TDRC to balance TD's ease and soundness.
problem TD learning's instability and divergence issues.
method Gradient Temporal-Difference Learning with Regularized Corrections (TDRC).
result TDRC performs as well as TD when TD works, but is sound in divergent cases.
We present a new Q-function operator for temporal difference (TD) learning methods that explicitly encodes robustness against significant rare events (SRE) in critical domains. The operator, which we call the κ-operator, allows to learn a robust policy in a model-based fashion without actually observing the SRE. We i…
Develops hyperparameter transfer methods for Dense Associative Memories.
problem Challenges in transferring hyperparameters for DenseAMs due to unique architecture and activation functions.
method Derives explicit prescriptions for hyperparameter transfer from small to large models.
result Excellent agreement between theoretical and empirical results.
Adaptive Multilevel Splitting improves rare event pricing for financial derivatives.
problem Efficient pricing of binary options in rare event regimes with discontinuous payoffs.
method Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS) reformulates rare-event problem as conditional events.
result AMS achieves up to 200-fold improvements over standard Monte Carlo, preserving unbiasedness.
In dynamic environments, learned controllers are supposed to take motion into account when selecting the action to be taken. However, in existing reinforcement learning works motion is rarely treated explicitly; it is rather assumed that the controller learns the necessary motion representation from temporal stacks of …
The paper introduces diagnostic transport maps to improve the reliability of rare event predictions.
problem Improper calibration of predictive distributions, especially for rare events.
method Diagnostic transport maps to adjust base model's probabilities for better calibration.
result Diagnostic transport maps improve predictive performance for rare events, including 24-hour rapid intensity change.
This paper benchmarks speech LVMs against deterministic models and adapts a video model to speech.
problem Speech generation models are inferior to deterministic models.
method Developed a speech benchmark of LVMs and compared them against deterministic models.
result The Clockwork VAE outperforms previous LVMs and reduces the gap to deterministic models.
In this paper, the relevance of the Feller conditions in discrete time macro-finance term structure models is investigated. The Feller conditions are usually imposed on a continuous time multivariate square root process to ensure that the roots have nonnegative arguments. For a discrete time approximate model, the Fell…
Proposes a method to improve rare event prediction in healthcare.
problem Rare event classification in healthcare with low prevalence labels.
method Variational disentanglement approach to semi-parametric learning.
result Outperforms existing alternatives in mortality prediction on COVID-19 cohort.
VSD efficiently learns conditional distributions for combinatorial designs.
problem Learning conditional distributions for rare combinatorial designs.
method Variational Search Distributions (VSD) using variational inference.
result VSD outperforms existing methods on real sequence-design problems.
New methods learn from PU data with non-representative positives.
problem Learning from PU data with non-representative positive classes.
method Integrates negative-unlabeled and unlabeled-unlabeled learning, or uses a recursive risk estimator.
result Effective across various real-world datasets and forms of positive bias.
condLSTM-Q predicts COVID-19 deaths at county level with quantile forecasts.
problem Predicting COVID-19 mortality at fine geographical scales.
method Conditional Long Short-Term Memory networks with quantile output.
result Fine-scale quantile predictions inform about death toll distribution.
Paper models spatio-temporal extremes using conditional variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling co-occurrence of extreme weather events under changing climate conditions.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder (cXVAE) with CNN integration.
result Accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers extremal dependence with low computational cost.
Generative model improves scene graph prediction for rare compositions.
problem Challenges in inferring unseen or rare scene graph compositions.
method Synthesizing rare scene graphs by perturbing real ones, using conditional GANs.
result Marginal but consistent improvements in zero- and few-shot metrics.
Study assesses weakly-supervised methods for rare outcomes in medical records.
problem Identifying patients with specific medical conditions using electronic health records.
method Compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) in simulations with varying outcomes and silver labels.
result No single method consistently outperformed others, but sureLDA often did well.
Neural network approximates diffusion bridges for efficiency and robustness.
problem Efficient simulation of conditioned diffusion processes, especially rare events and multimodal distributions.
method Trains a neural network to approximate bridge dynamics, eliminating MCMC and score modeling.
result Efficient sampling of conditioned diffusion bridges at comparable cost to unconditioned process.
New bounds show linear predictors rarely overfit with certain optimization methods.
problem Bounding test error for linear predictors with stochastic optimization methods.
method Coupling argument for fixed point methods like stochastic and batch mirror descent.
result Locally-adapted rates that depend on predictor properties, not global problem structure.
It is common in modern prediction problems for many predictor variables to be counts of rarely occurring events. This leads to design matrices in which many columns are highly sparse. The challenge posed by such "rare features" has received little attention despite its prevalence in diverse areas, ranging from natural …
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.
We model GitHub interactions as a temporal knowledge graph for software engineering questions.
problem Insufficient performance of existing temporal models on extrapolated queries and time prediction.
method Introduced an extension to current temporal models using relative temporal information.
result Improved performance on extrapolated queries and time prediction.
TRR detects stock portfolio crashes by simulating human reasoning.
problem Detecting stock portfolio crashes with limited historical data.
method Temporal Relational Reasoning (TRR) framework.
result TRR outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in detecting stock portfolio crashes.
The paper explains how importance sampling can be used for optimization of rare events.
problem Minimizing tail risks in stochastic optimization formulations.
method Importance sampling for reducing sample requirements in estimating rare events.
result Effective importance sampling techniques for optimization of rare events.
LEAP identifies latent causal variables from temporal data.
problem Recovering time-delayed latent causal variables from general temporal data.
method Proposes LEAP, a framework that extends VAEs with constraints for temporally causal latent processes.
result Successfully identifies temporally causal latent processes from observed variables under various dependency structures.
AI boosts study of rare weather extremes with lower costs.
problem Difficulty in studying rare weather events due to limited data and models.
method Coupling AI forecasts with physics models using rare-event algorithms.
result Efficiently characterizes very rare events like once-per-millennium heatwaves.
Approach for modeling EHR data with rare features, improving prediction and interpretation.
problem Challenges in modeling rare binary features in EHR data.
method Tree-guided feature selection and logic aggregation for large-scale regression.
result Improved prediction and model interpretation of suicide risk in EHR data.
Improved incremental sequence classification with temporal consistency.
problem Updating predictions as new sequence elements are revealed.
method Temporal-difference learning and a temporal-consistency condition for successive predictions.
result Optimizing a novel loss function improves data efficiency and predictive accuracy.