Generative model simulates rare events for better decision making.
problem Rare events impact decision making but are hard to sample.
method Normalizing Flow coupled with Importance Sampling.
result Accurate estimation of rare events improves decision outcomes.
Develops a method to estimate rare-event probabilities under distributional uncertainty.
problem Distributional uncertainty limits the effectiveness of rare-event simulation techniques.
method Wasserstein distributionally robust rare-event simulation (DRIS) framework.
result DRIS achieves vanishing relative error in estimating rare-event probabilities.
Develops a method to simulate rare dangerous events in autonomous systems.
problem Rare dangerous events in safety-critical systems are hard to test in real-world settings.
method Combines exploration, exploitation, and optimization techniques for rare-event simulation.
result Provides rigorous guarantees for the performance of the method.
Deep-PrAE improves rare-event simulation for black-box systems.
problem Evaluating rare safety-critical events in learning-based systems.
method Combines deep neural networks with IS to create statistically guaranteed estimations.
result Deep-PrAE provides accurate bounds on safety-critical event probabilities.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Study rare-event simulation for neural networks and random forests.
problem Safety evaluation and robustness quantification of machine learning models.
method Importance sampling scheme integrating large deviations and sequential mixed integer programming.
result Efficiency guarantees and numerical demonstrations for various neural network architectures.
Proposes a method to ensure accurate estimation of rare events in AI systems.
problem Lack of efficiency guarantees in black-box systems for rare-event simulation.
method Integrates deep learning with importance sampling to create a statistically guaranteed estimator.
result Demonstrates effective estimation of rare-event probabilities in AI systems.
Enhanced diffusion sampling improves rare event sampling in biomolecular simulations.
problem Efficiently sampling rare transition events in biomolecular systems.
method Quantitative steering protocols to generate biased ensembles and exact reweighting.
result Fast, accurate, and scalable estimation of equilibrium properties.
Enhanced diffusion sampling tackles rare event sampling in biomolecular simulations.
problem Efficiently sampling rare transition events in biomolecular simulations.
method Quantitative steering protocols to generate biased ensembles, followed by exact reweighting.
result Fast, accurate, and scalable estimation of equilibrium properties for folding free energies.
New method learns diffusion bridges for rare events.
problem Simulating rare events in diffusion processes.
method Iterative online learning based on self-consistency.
result Strong performance in various empirical settings.
SS-GEN simulates rare events in heavy and light-tailed data.
problem Estimating probabilities of extreme events in multivariate data.
method Self-Similar Generative Estimation (SS-GEN) decomposes tail distribution into radial and angular components.
result SS-GEN generates representative extreme scenarios and estimates rare-event probabilities beyond observed data.
Proposes a method to refine PDE-driven high-dimensional rare-event simulation.
problem Challenges in constructing accurate surrogates for rare-event simulation.
method Adaptive importance sampling framework that refines a locally constructed surrogate.
result Achieves accuracy comparable to true-model adaptive importance sampling with fewer high-fidelity evaluations.
New test uncovers causal links in rare event dynamics.
problem Causal discovery for rare event phenomena in dynamic systems.
method Nonparametric conditional independence test on time-invariant data.
result Validated across simulated and real-world datasets.
The paper explores how control variates can reduce variance in Monte Carlo simulations, especially for Sobolev functions.
problem Efficiency of control variates in reducing variance for Monte Carlo simulations.
method Study of a specific quadrature rule using nonparametric regression-adjusted control variates.
result A specific quadrature rule can improve the Monte Carlo rate and achieve the minimax optimal rate under sufficient smoothness assumptions.
Develops RES metrics for stable rare-event forecasting evaluation.
problem Challenges in evaluating forecasts of rare events.
method Rare-event-stable (RES) metrics designed to maintain stable thresholds under extreme rarity.
result RES metrics maintain stable thresholds, consistent model rankings, and near-complete prevalence invariance.
Modern treatments for Type 1 diabetes (T1D) use devices known as artificial pancreata (APs), which combine an insulin pump with a continuous glucose monitor (CGM) operating in a closed-loop manner to control blood glucose levels. In practice, poor performance of APs (frequent hyper- or hypoglycemic events) is common en…
MIM-based GAN improves rare event generation in GANs.
problem Improving rare event generation in GANs.
method Adopting MIM (exponential form of information metric) to replace KL divergence in GANs.
result MIM-based GAN achieves state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection.
A new method uses deep learning to predict rare events in complex systems.
problem Predicting rare and extreme events in non-equilibrium systems.
method A deep learning approach that minimizes the geometrical action.
result The method accurately predicts rare events in various complex systems.
A new method uses deep learning to efficiently sample rare transitions for estimating committor functions.
problem Efficiently sampling rare transitions to estimate committor functions in high-dimensional problems.
method DASTR (Deep Adaptive Sampling on Transition Paths) method using deep generative models.
result Significantly improved accuracy in approximating committor functions through efficient sampling.
Efficiently estimates rare events using multifidelity modeling.
problem Estimating rare events with computationally expensive models.
method Active learning with multifidelity modeling, adapting the number of high-fidelity simulations based on problem complexity and desired accuracy.
result Significantly reduced the number of high-fidelity model calls while maintaining accuracy.
While recent developments in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology highlight substantial progress, we lack tools for rigorous and scalable testing. Real-world testing, the de facto evaluation environment, places the public in danger, and, due to the rare nature of accidents, will require billions of miles in or…
The paper explains how importance sampling can be used for optimization of rare events.
problem Minimizing tail risks in stochastic optimization formulations.
method Importance sampling for reducing sample requirements in estimating rare events.
result Effective importance sampling techniques for optimization of rare events.
This paper evaluates data enrichment techniques for rare event detection in manufacturing.
problem Rare events in manufacturing lead to unplanned downtime and high energy consumption.
method Time series data augmentation, sampling, and imputation techniques combined with supervised machine learning.
result Data enrichment enhances rare failure event detection and prediction by up to 48%.
A new method estimates corporate bond defaults in financial networks efficiently.
problem Challenges in valuing corporate bonds in interconnected financial systems.
method Bi-Level Importance Sampling with Splitting
result The method efficiently estimates rare default events in financial networks.
AI boosts study of rare weather extremes with lower costs.
problem Difficulty in studying rare weather events due to limited data and models.
method Coupling AI forecasts with physics models using rare-event algorithms.
result Efficiently characterizes very rare events like once-per-millennium heatwaves.
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we propose a general account for finding the optimal tilting measure. To this end, when …
The paper analyzes logistic regression for rare events data, deriving new insights on estimator efficiency and sampling strategies.
problem Binary logistic regression for rare events data with significantly fewer events than controls.
method Derives asymptotic distribution of MLE, proves under-sampling advantage, and compares over-sampling efficiency.
result Under-sampling a small proportion of nonevents can improve efficiency in rare events data analysis.
A new method reduces uncertainty in predicting rare extreme events without assuming their presence in training data.
problem Predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems with high uncertainty.
method Extreme Event Aware (e2a or η) learning, which enforces extreme event statistics during training.
result Models generate unprecedented extreme events even when training data lacks extremes.
New deep learning method handles rare and imbalanced events in time series.
problem Challenges in event detection in time series data, especially rare and imbalanced events.
method Supervised regression-based deep learning approach that handles various types of events.
result Superior performance across diverse domains, particularly for rare events and imbalanced datasets.
A new framework uses stochastic optimal control to estimate rare events more accurately.
problem Estimating rare events like chemical reactions in biomolecules is computationally challenging.
method The approach casts committor estimation as a stochastic optimal control problem, developing direct and off-policy Value Matching losses.
result The framework yields more accurate committor estimates, reaction rates, and equilibrium constants.
Low-rank MPPCA improves importance sampling in high dimensions.
problem Estimating full-rank GMM covariance matrices in high dimensions is numerically unstable.
method Use MPPCA mixtures as low-rank proposals for importance sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
result Consistent gains in sample efficiency and quality of failure distribution characterization.
Study compares resampling methods for rare event prediction in longitudinal studies.
problem Predicting rare events in longitudinal follow-up studies.
method Comparison of resampling methods to improve standard regression models.
result Effect of sampling rate on model predictive performance.
NOFIS uses normalizing flows to estimate rare event probabilities more efficiently.
problem Accurate estimation of rare event probabilities using conventional methods is inefficient and resource-intensive.
method NOFIS learns a sequence of proposal distributions by minimizing KL divergence losses and estimates rare event probability using importance sampling.
result NOFIS outperforms baseline approaches in estimating rare event probabilities across 10 distinct test cases.
Reduces false positives in classifying rare online platforms.
problem Challenges in accurately identifying rare online platforms with ML.
method Calibrated probabilities and ensembles to reduce bias.
result Significantly reduces false positives in rare event detection.
Develops FSC for maxima nominated samples, improving classification in rare-event data.
problem Combining labeled and unlabeled data in rare-event scenarios.
method Introduces a latent representation to account for maxima nomination sampling.
result Improves classification performance in rare-event contamination mixtures.
A new method estimates rare events using tensor trains.
problem Estimating rare event probabilities in high-dimensional problems.
method Approximating optimal importance distribution via tensor-train decompositions and compositions.
result Better variance reduction and efficient computation of rare event probabilities.
A real-world dataset is provided from a pulp-and-paper manufacturing industry. The dataset comes from a multivariate time series process. The data contains a rare event of paper break that commonly occurs in the industry. The data contains sensor readings at regular time-intervals (x's) and the event label (y). The pri…
PHINN: A generative model for rare-event time series using persistent homology
problem Generating rare events in time series
method Flow-matching framework with dynamic Betti curves and persistence landscape loss
result Outperforms statistical and diffusion baselines in topological fidelity and tail coverage
This paper presents a method to efficiently estimate rare event probabilities using a combination of high and low-fidelity models.
problem Estimating the probability of failure for complex systems using high-fidelity models is expensive and inaccurate for rare events.
method The paper introduces a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy using active learning and subset simulation to merge high and low-fidelity models.
result The method significantly reduces computational cost while maintaining high accuracy in estimating rare event probabilities.
Adaptive Multilevel Splitting improves rare event pricing for financial derivatives.
problem Efficient pricing of binary options in rare event regimes with discontinuous payoffs.
method Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (AMS) reformulates rare-event problem as conditional events.
result AMS achieves up to 200-fold improvements over standard Monte Carlo, preserving unbiasedness.
Neural network approximates diffusion bridges for efficiency and robustness.
problem Efficient simulation of conditioned diffusion processes, especially rare events and multimodal distributions.
method Trains a neural network to approximate bridge dynamics, eliminating MCMC and score modeling.
result Efficient sampling of conditioned diffusion bridges at comparable cost to unconditioned process.
Quantum model captures rare financial events not seen by Gaussian statistics.
problem Underestimation of rare financial events by Gaussian statistics.
method Quantum Bohmian Mechanics applied to multifractal random walk (MRW) models.
result Rare financial events generate a potential barrier in quantum potentials.
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we address the problem of estimating risk contributions when the total risk is measur…
PRESTO improves rare event prediction by shrinking towards proportional odds model.
problem Difficult to predict rare events due to class imbalance.
method PRESTO relaxes proportional odds model by estimating separate weights for transitions between categories, imposing L1 penalty to shrink towards proportional odds.
result PRESTO consistently estimates decision boundary weights under sparsity assumption, improving rare probability estimation.
New method uses active importance sampling for rare event optimization in high-dimensional problems.
problem Optimizing complex, high-dimensional functions with rare events.
method Combines rare events sampling with neural network optimization.
result Importance sampling reduces asymptotic variance, improving generalization.
Proposes a method to improve rare event prediction in healthcare.
problem Rare event classification in healthcare with low prevalence labels.
method Variational disentanglement approach to semi-parametric learning.
result Outperforms existing alternatives in mortality prediction on COVID-19 cohort.
A cased-based reasoning method predicts rare events on strategic sites using satellite imagery.
problem Manual prediction of rare events on strategic sites is impractical due to large datasets.
method Case-based reasoning approach incorporating expert knowledge for irregular time series and small datasets.
result The method significantly outperforms random selection on challenging applications.
Develops methods for spectral estimation and rare-event prediction in complex systems.
problem Challenges in understanding dynamics in complex systems with many degrees of freedom.
method Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra methods for spectral estimation and rare-event prediction.
result Demonstrates methods on low-dimensional and high-dimensional models, showing their effectiveness.