A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper explains CART random forests using stochastic control theory.
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that…
We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005), 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrag…
We study the utility maximization problem for power utility random fields in a semimartingale financial market, with and without intermediate consumption. The notion of an opportunity process is introduced as a reduced form of the value process of the resulting stochastic control problem. We show how the opportunity pr…
We study arbitrage opportunities, market viability and utility maximization in market models with an insider. Assuming that an economic agent possesses from the beginning an additional information in the form of a random variable G, which only becomes known to the ordinary agents at date T, we give criteria for the No …
This paper completes the analysis of Choulli et al. Non-Arbitrage up to Random Horizons and after Honest Times for Semimartingale Models and contains two principal contributions. The first contribution consists in providing and analysing many practical examples of market models that admit classical arbitrages while the…
This article introduces the notion of arbitrage for a situation involving a collection of investments and a payoff matrix describing the return to an investor of each investment under each of a set of possible scenarios. We explain the Arbitrage Theorem, discuss its geometric meaning, and show its equivalence to Farkas…
New methods evaluate stock market anomalies for prospect investors.
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
Modeling business expansion as a stochastic control problem, the study finds that firms are incentivized to expand but may wait.
There is vast empirical evidence that given a set of assumptions on the real-world dynamics of an asset, the European options on this asset are not efficiently priced in options markets, giving rise to arbitrage opportunities. We study these opportunities in a generic stochastic volatility model and exhibit the strateg…
New model improves prediction accuracy and interpretability for network-connected data.
Incentive-aware recommender system for online platforms.
This survey reviews portfolio choice in settings where investment opportunities are stochastic due to, e.g., stochastic volatility or return predictability. It is explained how to heuristically compute candidate optimal portfolios using tools from stochastic control, and how to rigorously verify their optimality by mea…
Bayesian optimisation has been successfully applied to a variety of reinforcement learning problems. However, the traditional approach for learning optimal policies in simulators does not utilise the opportunity to improve learning by adjusting certain environment variables: state features that are unobservable and ran…
We study utility maximization for power utility random fields with and without intermediate consumption in a general semimartingale model with closed portfolio constraints. We show that any optimal strategy leads to a solution of the corresponding Bellman equation. The optimal strategies are described pointwise in term…
This paper studies a class of optimal multiple stopping problems driven by Lévy processes. Our model allows for a negative effective discount rate, which arises in a number of financial applications, including stock loans and real options, where the strike price can potentially grow at a higher rate than the original d…
We derive properties of the cdf of random variables defined as saddle-type points of real valued continuous stochastic processes. This facilitates the derivation of the first-order asymptotic properties of tests for stochastic spanning given some stochastic dominance relation. We define the concept of Markowitz stochas…
Conditional Random Fields (CRF) are frequently applied for labeling and segmenting sequence data. Morency et al. (2007) introduced hidden state variables in a labeled CRF structure in order to model the latent dynamics within class labels, thus improving the labeling performance. Such a model is known as Latent-Dynamic…
Proposes a fair classification model using Wasserstein ambiguity sets.
Detects arbitrage in multi-asset derivatives markets.
The prospects of Kahneman and Tversky, Mega Million and Powerball lotteries, St. Petersburg paradox, premature profits and growing losses criticized by Livermore are reviewed under an angle of view comparing mathematical expectations with awards received. Original prospects have been formulated as a one time opportunit…
This paper considers a sequence of discrete-time random walk markets with a safe and a single risky investment opportunity, and gives conditions for the existence of arbitrages or free lunches with vanishing risk, of the form of waiting to buy and selling the next period, with no shorting, and furthermore for weak conv…
Expands robust profit opportunities to include distributional uncertainty.
The paper combines supervised and unsupervised learning to predict financial market movements.
Modern electronic health records (EHRs) provide data to answer clinically meaningful questions. The growing data in EHRs makes healthcare ripe for the use of machine learning. However, learning in a clinical setting presents unique challenges that complicate the use of common machine learning methodologies. For example…
Study examines how crypto arbitrage affects XRP price and network correlation.
We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen …
The paper develops sampling methods for ocean phenomena based on temperature and salinity measurements.
We quantify content availability and user discovery opportunities in recommender systems.
For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion and a long horizon, who trades in a market with constant investment opportunities and small proportional transaction costs, we obtain explicitly the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. We identify these quantities as…
The paper analyzes arbitrage opportunities in a large investor market with common stock noises.
It is shown that absence of arbitrage opportunity in financial markets is a particular case of existence of uncertainty in decision system. Absence of arbitrage opportunity is considered in the sense of the Arrow-Debreu model of financial market with a riskless asset, while uncertainty (or ambiguity) is defined on the …
Detection of interactions between treatment effects and patient descriptors in clinical trials is critical for optimizing the drug development process. The increasing volume of data accumulated in clinical trials provides a unique opportunity to discover new biomarkers and further the goal of personalized medicine, but…
This review covers AI in finance, challenges, techniques, and opportunities.
System detects financial opportunities in tweets with high precision.
We consider a modification of the dividend maximization problem from ruin theory. Based on a classical risk process we maximize the difference of expected cumulated discounted dividends and total expected discounted additional funding (subject to some proportional transaction costs). For modelling dividends we use the …
This paper studies the optimal investment problem with random endowment in an inventory-based price impact model with competitive market makers. Our goal is to analyze how price impact affects optimal policies, as well as both pricing rules and demand schedules for contingent claims. For exponential market makers prefe…
The paper develops a new class of financial market models. These models are based on generalized telegraph processes: Markov random flows with alternating velocities and jumps occurring when the velocities are switching. While such markets may admit an arbitrage opportunity, the model under consideration is arbitrage-f…
This paper improves prediction uncertainty estimation by inferring variation from neuron activation strength.
Both neural networks and decision trees are popular machine learning methods and are widely used to solve problems from diverse domains. These two classifiers are commonly used base classifiers in an ensemble framework. In this paper, we first present a new variant of oblique decision tree based on a linear classifier,…
Short selling is key to exploiting arbitrage opportunities in financial markets.
Method learns drug-disease representations for repositioning opportunities.
We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market using high-frequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small magnitudes. We find intra-day variations in the number and length of arbitrage opportunities, with la…
TDA improves cryptocurrency portfolio management.
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of participants is employed, generating stochastic economic output. To ensure fairne…
This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switch according to a finite…
Study cost-effective fairness audits with partial feedback, improving over random exploration.