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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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68136203271 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for random guessing

The paper introduces negative controls to evaluate causal discovery algorithms, improving their reliability.

problem Lack of a general guideline for evaluating causal discovery algorithms.
method Derive exact distributional results under random guessing for evaluation metrics and propose a pipeline for using negative controls.
result Evaluation metrics can achieve very favorable values under random guessing, highlighting the need for negative control results.

Randomly guessing weights helps analyze RL benchmarks objectively.

problem Understanding the complexity of reinforcement learning benchmarks.
method Generate policy networks by randomly guessing their parameters, evaluate on benchmarks, and analyze results.
result Small untrained networks can provide a robust baseline for various RL tasks.

Unhinged loss minimization fails to improve classifier accuracy for simple data.

problem Accuracy of classifiers minimizing the unhinged loss.
method Minimizing the unhinged loss function.
result Minimizing the unhinged loss yields classifiers with accuracy no better than random guessing for simple data.

Forward gradients improve neural network training without backpropagation issues.

problem Training neural networks without backpropagation's locking and memorization problems.
method Using directional derivatives in forward differentiation mode, with biased guesses based on feedback from small auxiliary networks.
result Using gradients from a local loss as a candidate direction improves Forward Gradient methods.

A new algorithm finds minimizers in dueling optimization with a monotone adversary.

problem Finding minimizers in dueling optimization with a monotone adversary.
method Introduces and studies dueling optimization with a monotone adversary, designs an efficient randomized algorithm.
result Efficient algorithm incurs cost O(d)O(d) and iteration complexity O(dlog(1/ε)2)O(d\log(1/\varepsilon)^2), asymptotically optimal.

Gradient descent benefits from tangent kernel advantages under specific conditions.

problem Comparing gradient descent with tangent kernel methods in learning.
method Analysis of gradient descent and tangent kernel methods under different conditions.
result Gradient descent can achieve small error only if tangent kernel methods have a non-trivial advantage, but this advantage can be very small.

Counterfactual data augmentations may not ensure OOD robustness if performed by a context-guessing machine.

problem Deep learning models lack out-of-distribution robustness due to reliance on spurious features.
method Theoretical analysis and demonstration of counterfactual data augmentations performed by a context-guessing machine.
result Counterfactual data augmentations by a context-guessing machine do not lead to robust OOD classifiers.

New model shows weak teachers can help strong students learn even with imperfect labels.

problem Improving strong student's performance with weak teacher's imperfect pseudolabels.
method Stylized overparameterized spiked covariance model with Gaussian covariates, proving two phases of generalization.
result Provable successful and random guessing phases of strong student's generalization.

The paper analyzes how good initial guesses affect the amount of data needed for low-rank matrix recovery.

problem Theoretical guarantee of local optimization algorithms requires excessive data to prevent spurious local minima.
method Quantifies the relationship between initial guess quality and sample complexity using restricted isometry constant.
result A linear improvement in initial guess quality leads to a constant factor improvement in sample complexity.

Learning algorithms need bias to generalize and perform better than random guessing. We examine the flexibility (expressivity) of biased algorithms. An expressive algorithm can adapt to changing training data, altering its outcome based on changes in its input. We measure expressivity by using an information-theoretic …

2019-11-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Gradient descent amplifies random features in neural networks to useful ones.

problem Generalization in neural networks trained on corrupted data.
method Characterization of feature-learning process in two-layer ReLU networks trained by gradient descent.
result Gradient descent amplifies random features to useful ones, achieving near optimal generalization error.

Anderson acceleration (or Anderson mixing) is an efficient acceleration method for fixed point iterations xt+1=G(xt)x_{t+1}=G(x_t), e.g., gradient descent can be viewed as iteratively applying the operation G(x)xαf(x)G(x) \triangleq x-α\nabla f(x). It is known that Anderson acceleration is quite efficient in practice and can be viewed…

2018-09-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Driver identification has emerged as a vital research field, where both practitioners and researchers investigate the potential of driver identification to enable a personalized driving experience. Within recent years, a selection of studies have reported that individuals could be perfectly identified based on their dr…

2019-09-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Using a bondholder who seeks to determine when to sell his bond as our motivating example, we revisit one of Larry Shepp's classical theorems on optimal stopping. We offer a novel proof of Theorem 1 from from \cite{Shepp}. Our approach is that of guessing the optimal control function and proving its optimality with mar…

2016-05-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic differential equations are an important modeling class in many disciplines. Consequently, there exist many methods relying on various discretization and numerical integration schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel, probabilistic model for estimating the drift and diffusion given noisy observations of the…

2019-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the fundamental problem of solving quadratic systems of equations in nn variables, where yi=ai,x2y_i = |\langle \boldsymbol{a}_i, \boldsymbol{x} \rangle|^2, i=1,,mi = 1, \ldots, m and xRn\boldsymbol{x} \in \mathbb{R}^n is unknown. We propose a novel method, which starting with an initial guess computed by means of a …

2015-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

State-of-the-art password guessing tools, such as HashCat and John the Ripper, enable users to check billions of passwords per second against password hashes. In addition to performing straightforward dictionary attacks, these tools can expand password dictionaries using password generation rules, such as concatenation…

2017-09-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Study shows gMPNNs struggle with OOD link prediction in larger test graphs.

problem Inductive out-of-distribution link prediction in larger test graphs.
method Theoretical analysis and development of a gMPNN with structural pairwise embeddings.
result Structural node embeddings from gMPNNs converge to random guessing as test graphs grow.

Machine-generated interpretations do not improve users' guessing accuracy in image classifiers.

problem Determining the usefulness of machine-generated explanations for deep neural networks.
method Human evaluation of crowd workers guessing incorrectly predicted labels with and without visual interpretations.
result Showing machine-generated visual interpretations decreased average guessing accuracy by about 10%.

Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.

problem Limited ability to model and predict human decision-making in stock markets.
method Used networks inference with stochastic block models (SBM) to find most predictive model of unobserved decisions.
result Users mostly use recent information to guess market direction, and their decision-making strategies are analogous to behaviors in other contexts.

A method to derive Lagrangians from field equations in metric-affine theories of gravity.

problem Deriving Lagrangians from field equations in metric-affine theories of gravity.
method Variational completion method to transform field equations into Euler-Lagrange equations and find a Lagrangian.
result Starting from metric equations, full metric equations and Lagrangian can be derived up to metric-independent terms.

Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine …

2019-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Understanding deep neural networks is a major research objective with notable experimental and theoretical attention in recent years. The practical success of excessively large networks underscores the need for better theoretical analyses and justifications. In this paper we focus on layer-wise functional structure and…

2019-02-06abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider membership inference attacks, one of the main privacy issues in machine learning. These recently developed attacks have been proven successful in determining, with confidence better than a random guess, whether a given sample belongs to the dataset on which the attacked machine learning model was trained. S…

2019-11-18abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper proposes a zero-shot learning approach for audio classification based on the textual information about class labels without any audio samples from target classes. We propose an audio classification system built on the bilinear model, which takes audio feature embeddings and semantic class label embeddings as…

2019-05-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Non-convex optimization with local search heuristics has been widely used in machine learning, achieving many state-of-art results. It becomes increasingly important to understand why they can work for these NP-hard problems on typical data. The landscape of many objective functions in learning has been conjectured to …

2017-06-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) constitutes a bridge between the linear algebra concepts and multi-layer neural networks---it is their linear analogy. Besides of this insight, it can be used as a good initial guess for the network parameters, leading to substantially better optimization results.

2019-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the fundamental problem of high-dimensional mean estimation in a robust model where a constant fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. Recent work gave the first polynomial time algorithms for this problem with dimension-independent error guarantees for several families of structured distributions…

2018-11-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Sensitive inferences and user re-identification are major threats to privacy when raw sensor data from wearable or portable devices are shared with cloud-assisted applications. To mitigate these threats, we propose mechanisms to transform sensor data before sharing them with applications running on users' devices. Thes…

2019-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a transformer-based approach for anomaly detection in time series data.

problem Inadequate evaluation metrics and inability to capture temporal features in time series anomaly detection.
method Introduces a proper evaluation metric and proposes a transformer-based approach for anomaly detection in time series data.
result Transformer-based approach outperforms state-of-the-art detectors in detecting sequential anomalies.

Neural networks can learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, requiring quadratic samples.

problem Learning from higher-order cumulants in high-dimensional data.
method Spiked cumulant model, polynomial time algorithms, neural networks, random features.
result Neural networks require quadratic samples to learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, while random features require more samples.

Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) are undirected graphical models, a special case of which correspond to conditionally-trained finite state machines. A key advantage of these models is their great flexibility to include a wide array of overlapping, multi-granularity, non-independent features of the input. In face of thi…

2012-10-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces methods for more reliable probabilistic predictions with confidence intervals.

problem Inaccurate labeling of datasets due to unreliable probabilistic predictions from weak labeling functions.
method Proposes a methodology to provide confidence intervals for label probabilities using uncertainty sets of distributions.
result Improves reliability of probabilistic predictions and provides confidence intervals for label probabilities.

This paper analyzes data-driven Newsvendor problems and finds a wide range of possible regrets.

problem Guessing the number drawn from an unknown distribution with asymmetric costs.
method Unified analysis using the notion of clustered distributions and new lower bounds.
result The entire spectrum of achievable regrets from 1/n1/\sqrt{n} to 1/n1/n is possible.

Machine learning models, especially deep neural networks have been shown to be susceptible to privacy attacks such as membership inference where an adversary can detect whether a data point was used for training a black-box model. Such privacy risks are exacerbated when a model's predictions are used on an unseen data …

2019-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗