A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper proposes a method to improve forecast combination accuracy using portfolio theory.
When digitizing a print bilingual dictionary, whether via optical character recognition or manual entry, it is inevitable that errors are introduced into the electronic version that is created. We investigate automating the process of detecting errors in an XML representation of a digitized print dictionary using a hyb…
Combines observational and randomized data to estimate treatment effects.
CTRF combines logged data and randomized experiments for robust prediction.
For a linear combination of random variables, fix some confidence level and consider the quantile of the combination at this level. We are interested in the partial derivatives of the quantile with respect to the weights of the random variables in the combination. It turns out that under suitable conditions on the join…
Paper establishes sufficient condition for comparing linear combinations of infinite-mean risks.
BoostForest combines multiple BoostTree models for improved accuracy.
Machine learning improves design verification, achieving better coverage than random methods.
Study predicts cryptocurrency trends using LSTM model.
WRS improves CNN hyperparameter optimization.
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance reduction methods for Monte Carlo simulation of portfolio market risk, there is no pa…
New method combines randomization tests and flexible models for valid inference without splitting data.
Paper proposes a new method combining random forests and Lasso selection.
Simple conditions for comonotonic additive risk measures from acceptance sets.
When observations are organized into groups where commonalties exist amongst them, the dependent random measures can be an ideal choice for modeling. One of the propositions of the dependent random measures is that the atoms of the posterior distribution are shared amongst groups, and hence groups can borrow informatio…
Random Forest proximity measures for multi-view classification.
Paper combines LSTM and Random Forest for better stock market predictions.
We relate the distribution of eigenvalues of a random symmetric matrix in the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble to the distribution of critical values of a random linear combination of eigenfunctions of the Laplacian on a compact Riemann manifold. We then prove a central limit theorem describing what happens when the dimens…
Short proof shows how ridge regression works with random data.
Framework combines random features with CDEs for efficient time-series learning.
Paper uses ML to improve A/B testing for complex treatment effects.
This paper presents a new ensemble learning method for classification problems called projection pursuit random forest (PPF). PPF uses the PPtree algorithm introduced in Lee et al. (2013). In PPF, trees are constructed by splitting on linear combinations of randomly chosen variables. Projection pursuit is used to choos…
New algorithm combines Geostatistics and Quantile Random Forests for non-stationary spatial modelling.
For a sequence of nonnegative random variables, we provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions to ensure that each sequence of its forward convex combinations converges in probability to the same limit. These conditions correspond to an essentially measure-free version of the notion of uniform integrability.
Novel graph neural network combines random walks with local message passing.
Combines machine learning and data assimilation for improved forecasting.
Optimized sampling scheme for compressed sensing combining randomness and determinism.
Human motion prediction is a stochastic process: Given an observed sequence of poses, multiple future motions are plausible. Existing approaches to modeling this stochasticity typically combine a random noise vector with information about the previous poses. This combination, however, is done in a deterministic manner,…
The paper compares methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using multiple randomized trials.
Credit risk prediction is an effective way of evaluating whether a potential borrower will repay a loan, particularly in peer-to-peer lending where class imbalance problems are prevalent. However, few credit risk prediction models for social lending consider imbalanced data and, further, the best resampling technique t…
Our work is a simple extension of the paper "Exploration by Random Network Distillation". More in detail, we show how to efficiently combine Intrinsic Rewards with Experience Replay in order to achieve more efficient and robust exploration (with respect to PPO/RND) and consequently better results in terms of agent perf…
Extends Infinitesimal Jackknife for model covariance, enhancing ensemble model analysis.
We develop ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify the transportation mode of trip data collected as part of a large-scale smartphone travel survey in Montreal, Canada. Our proposed ensemble library is composed of a series of CNN models with different hyper-parameter values and CNN architectures. In o…
Enhances uncertainty modeling in random PDEs using PINNs and generative models.
We analyze convergence rates of stochastic optimization procedures for non-smooth convex optimization problems. By combining randomized smoothing techniques with accelerated gradient methods, we obtain convergence rates of stochastic optimization procedures, both in expectation and with high probability, that have opti…
Most traditional online learning algorithms are based on variants of mirror descent or follow-the-leader. In this paper, we present an online algorithm based on a completely different approach, tailored for transductive settings, which combines "random playout" and randomized rounding of loss subgradients. As an applic…
In this paper we discuss the asymptotic behaviour of random contractions , where , with distribution function , is a positive random variable independent of . Random contractions appear naturally in insurance and finance. Our principal contribution is the derivation of the tail asymptotics of $X…
New method uses sparse random features for crashworthiness analysis.
Combines normalizing flows and quasi-Monte Carlo for improved numerical integration.
The Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) formalism can be adapted to encompass stochastic processes with memory. In this article we will show how the random combination of two different unbiased CTRWs can give raise to a process with clear drift, if one of them is a CTRW with memory. If one identifies the other one as no…
Paper extends stochastic dominance for compound binomial distributions.
Protein function prediction is the important problem in modern biology. In this paper, the un-normalized, symmetric normalized, and random walk graph Laplacian based semi-supervised learning methods will be applied to the integrated network combined from multiple networks to predict the functions of all yeast proteins …
Nonparametric regression for massive numbers of samples (n) and features (p) is an increasingly important problem. In big n settings, a common strategy is to partition the feature space, and then separately apply simple models to each partition set. We propose an alternative approach, which avoids such partitioning and…
We present an alternate formulation of the partial assignment problem as matching random clique complexes, that are higher-order analogues of random graphs, designed to provide a set of invariants that better detect higher-order structure. The proposed method creates random clique adjacency matrices for each k-skeleton…
Quantum RNG improves financial risk metrics estimation.
Random feature approximation speeds up spectral methods and improves learning rates.
Random weights in GNNs match learned weights in performance.
Proposes a constrained labeling method for weakly supervised learning.