Generative model for joint discrete distributions using randomized assignment flows.
problem Efficiently representing and sampling from complex joint distributions of discrete variables.
method Randomized assignment flows on the statistical submanifold of factorizing distributions.
result Our model can efficiently represent and sample from any target distribution and assess likelihood of unseen data points.
We present an alternate formulation of the partial assignment problem as matching random clique complexes, that are higher-order analogues of random graphs, designed to provide a set of invariants that better detect higher-order structure. The proposed method creates random clique adjacency matrices for each k-skeleton…
New methods optimize personalized treatment assignment in trials with many arms.
problem Poor performance of standard methods in trials with many treatment arms.
method Regularized and clustered joint assignment forest algorithm.
result Gains in predicting arm-wise outcomes and utility gains from personalization.
New study shows low-degree polynomial algorithms struggle at clause densities close to Fix's.
problem Finding satisfying assignments in random k-SAT formulas at high clause densities.
method Analysis of low-degree polynomial algorithms and a new many-way overlap gap property.
result No efficient algorithms can find satisfying assignments at clause densities close to Fix's.
New method combines randomization tests and flexible models for valid inference without splitting data.
problem Valid inference in randomized panel experiments with complex effect heterogeneity.
method Model-assisted randomization tests that estimate unsigned CATE from residualized outcomes.
result CATE-assisted tests control Type I error and achieve higher power than alternatives.
Tests whether a treatment's effect is fully mediated by observed outcomes and identifies causal mechanisms.
problem Understanding how a treatment affects an outcome through intermediate variables.
method Proposes a test to evaluate full mediation and causal mechanism identification, extending to non-randomly assigned treatments.
result A conditionally random treatment is conditionally independent of the outcome given mediators and covariates if full mediation and causal mechanism identification hold.
Proposes rounding method for precise treatment effect estimation under budget constraints.
problem Resource-constrained experimental design for precise treatment effect estimation.
method Dependent randomized rounding procedure to convert assignment probabilities into binary treatment decisions.
result Improved estimator precision through variance reduction and efficient inference.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
problem Decision-making under random job arrivals and values with limited acceptance.
method Proposes Non-Parametric Sequential Allocation (NPSA) algorithm.
result Expected reward converges to optimality as sample size increases.
This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the assignment to the treatment can be assumed to be randomized (irregular assignment mechan…
We present a method to estimate block membership of nodes in a random graph generated by a stochastic blockmodel. We use an embedding procedure motivated by the random dot product graph model, a particular example of the latent position model. The embedding associates each node with a vector; these vectors are clustere…
Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.
Improved averaging method for noisy observations converges strongly.
problem Noisy observations from random dynamical systems require stable estimates.
method Introduced p-EMA, a modified exponential moving average with subharmonic weight decay. result Stochastic convergence guarantees for p-EMA under mild assumptions. This paper studies the problem of inferring a global preference based on the partial rankings provided by many users over different subsets of items according to the Plackett-Luce model. A question of particular interest is how to optimally assign items to users for ranking and how many item assignments are needed to a…
New method certifies deep graph classifiers with tighter risk bounds.
problem Certifying the reliability of deep graph classifiers.
method Linearized deep assignment flows with random initial conditions, using PAC-Bayes risk certification.
result Computes tighter out-of-sample risk certificates efficiently.
This letter investigates a channel assignment problem in uplink wireless communication systems. Our goal is to maximize the sum rate of all users subject to integer channel assignment constraints. A convex optimization based algorithm is provided to obtain the optimal channel assignment, where the closed-form solution …
New method robust to random distributional shifts in prediction.
problem Random distributional shifts in real-world settings.
method Hybrid approach combining long-term and proxy outcomes.
result Hybrid approach yields lower mean-squared error than current methods.
Several algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems are based on survey propagation, a variational inference scheme used to obtain approximate marginal probability estimates for variable assignments. These marginals correspond to how frequently each variable is set to true among satisfying assignments, and …
Bandlimited random neural networks may not approximate all functions perfectly.
problem Expressive power of shallow neural networks with bandlimited random weights.
method Ridgelet analysis for deriving approximation error lower bounds.
result Bandlimited random weights can lead to non-zero approximation error.
Designs for allocating resources to prioritize needy applicants while estimating treatment effects.
problem Resource allocation under uncertainty with prioritized queues.
method Priority-queue randomization for treatment assignment and estimation of treatment effects.
result Identification of causal effects under different arrival and treatment assignment scenarios.
A weighted random survival forest is presented in the paper. It can be regarded as a modification of the random forest improving its performance. The main idea underlying the proposed model is to replace the standard procedure of averaging used for estimation of the random survival forest hazard function by weighted av…
Spectral clustering is a widely studied problem, yet its complexity is prohibitive for dynamic graphs of even modest size. We claim that it is possible to reuse information of past cluster assignments to expedite computation. Our approach builds on a recent idea of sidestepping the main bottleneck of spectral clusterin…
Method learns optimal treatment policies from observational data.
problem Learning interpretable treatment assignment policies from observational data.
method Mixed-integer optimization (MIO) technology.
result Asymptotically exact in converging to optimal treatment policies.
High dimensional data often contain multiple facets, and several clustering patterns can co-exist under different variable subspaces, also known as the views. While multi-view clustering algorithms were proposed, the uncertainty quantification remains difficult --- a particular challenge is in the high complexity of es…
In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations. Then, based on the stick-breaking construction of the Pitman-Yor process, we defin…
Normalized nonnegative models assign probability distributions to users and random variables to items; see [Stark, 2015]. Rating an item is regarded as sampling the random variable assigned to the item with respect to the distribution assigned to the user who rates the item. Models of that kind are highly expressive. F…
Customer scoring models are the core of scalable direct marketing. Uplift models provide an estimate of the incremental benefit from a treatment that is used for operational decision-making. Training and monitoring of uplift models require experimental data. However, the collection of data under randomized treatment as…
This paper explores the possibility of near-optimally solving multi-agent, multi-task NP-hard planning problems with time-dependent rewards using a learning-based algorithm. In particular, we consider a class of robot/machine scheduling problems called the multi-robot reward collection problem (MRRC). Such MRRC problem…
Study geodesics on graphs with random lengths, proving bi-infinite paths exist.
problem Existence of bi-infinite geodesic paths on graphs with random edge lengths.
method Sublinear Morse geodesics and first passage percolation analysis.
result Proves the existence of bi-infinite geodesic paths in graphs with specific properties.
We use the Chebyshev knot diagram model of Koseleff and Pecker in order to introduce a random knot diagram model by assigning the crossings to be positive or negative uniformly at random. We give a formula for the probability of choosing a knot at random among all knots with bridge index at most 2. Restricted to this c…
Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) are performed to evaluate treatment assignment functions. However, such…
Sharp-SSL uses random projections to identify important variables for semi-supervised learning.
problem High-dimensional semi-supervised learning problems.
method Careful aggregation of low-dimensional results from many axis-aligned random projections.
result Sharp-SSL algorithm can recover signal coordinates with high probability.
New algorithm balances user reward and statistical inference by mixing TS with UR based on difference size.
problem Combining statistical inference with user reward in adaptive experiments.
method TS-PostDiff algorithm that uses UR when differences are small and TS when large.
result TS-PostDiff reduces false positives and increases statistical power for small differences, while maximizing reward for large ones.
New formula refutes random CSPs with fewer constraints.
problem Refuting random constraint satisfaction problems efficiently.
method Introduced a non-backtracking matrix and proved an Ihara-Bass formula.
result Efficiently refutes random CSPs with fewer constraints.
Graph cuts find global optima for Potts models in slight perturbations.
problem Finding optimal solutions in Potts models with graph cuts.
method α-expansion algorithm for MAP inference, with certification for perturbations.
result All local minima are global minima in slight perturbations, and solutions are close to original.
We propose an empirical measure of the approximate accuracy of feature importance estimates in deep neural networks. Our results across several large-scale image classification datasets show that many popular interpretability methods produce estimates of feature importance that are not better than a random designation …
Improved isolation forest for better outlier detection.
problem Outlier detection in multivariate data.
method Random cuts across feature space, size of feature space, and point assignment information.
result Improved results in many situations without modifying tree structure.
We present a novel active learning algorithm for community detection on networks. Our proposed algorithm uses a Maximal Expected Model Change (MEMC) criterion for querying network nodes label assignments. MEMC detects nodes that maximally change the community assignment likelihood model following a query. Our method is…
Majority bit estimation in noisy random recursive DAGs.
problem Estimating the majority bit in a noisy random recursive DAG.
method Majority rule among nodes, with bit flipping and noisy channel.
result Identification of the threshold for p at which majority rule yields errors. We propose a novel statistical model for sparse networks with overlapping community structure. The model is based on representing the graph as an exchangeable point process, and naturally generalizes existing probabilistic models with overlapping block-structure to the sparse regime. Our construction builds on vectors …
Demand response is designed to motivate electricity customers to modify their loads at critical time periods. The accurate estimation of impact of demand response signals to customers' consumption is central to any successful program. In practice, learning these response is nontrivial because operators can only send a …
There is great interest in "saliency methods" (also called "attribution methods"), which give "explanations" for a deep net's decision, by assigning a "score" to each feature/pixel in the input. Their design usually involves credit-assignment via the gradient of the output with respect to input. Recently Adebayo et al.…
Machine learning and C-NLP improve emergency department triage accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in emergency department triage to manage increased volume.
method Historical EHR data, clinical natural language processing, and ML algorithms (KATE).
result KATE predicts ESI acuity assignments 75.9% of the time, significantly better than nurses.
A new algorithm speeds up rerandomization for better experiment balance.
problem Achieving optimal covariate balance in randomized experiments.
method Metropolis-Hastings framework with sampling-importance resampling.
result PSRSRR achieves significant speedups while maintaining statistical guarantees.
GRADE models evolving graph dynamics by learning node and community representations.
problem Lack of tools to study temporal community dynamics in evolving graphs.
method GRADE is a probabilistic model that learns evolving node and community representations via a random walk prior and variational inference.
result GRADE outperforms baselines in dynamic link prediction and dynamic community detection.
CARD detects treatment responders with machine learning and adjustment.
problem Identifying responders in non-random treatment settings.
method Conformal prediction, machine learning, propensity score adjustment.
result High power responder detection in various scenarios.
The study examines the balancedness of random partition models and finds the rich-get-richer characteristic is a result of model assumptions.
problem The balancedness of random partition models is largely neglected in the literature.
method Formulated a framework to define and study the balancedness of exchangeable random partition models, analyzed using product-form exchangeability and projectivity assumptions.
result The 'rich-get-richer' characteristic is an inevitable consequence of the model assumptions.
We consider the signed density of the extremal points of (two-dimensional) scalar fields with a Gaussian distribution. We assign a positive unit charge to the maxima and minima of the function and a negative one to its saddles. At first, we compute the average density for a field in half-space with Dirichlet boundary c…