A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
Estimate arrival times in random recursive trees using iterated Jordan centralities.
Study models market volatility with persistent and temporary impacts.
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
In this paper, we present our approach for solving the DEBS Grand Challenge 2018. The challenge asks to provide a prediction for (i) a destination and the (ii) arrival time of ships in a streaming-fashion using Geo-spatial data in the maritime context. Novel aspects of our approach include the use of ensemble learning …
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with respectively the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion…
Optimal market making strategy with price forecasts reduces inventory costs and spreads.
Proposes a new simulator for complex arrival processes.
Designs for allocating resources to prioritize needy applicants while estimating treatment effects.
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual interactions phenomena. The authors propose here a simple yet conclusive method for f…
In real-world machine learning applications, there is a cost associated with sampling of different features. Budgeted learning can be used to select which feature-values to acquire from each instance in a dataset, such that the best model is induced under a given constraint. However, this approach is not possible in th…
Optimal algorithm selects biological models without prior info.
Paper estimates the order of vertices in random recursive trees.
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns and volatility is driven by independent Gaussian white noises and two independent …
Many tasks in machine learning and data mining, such as data diversification, non-parametric learning, kernel machines, clustering etc., require extracting a small but representative summary from a massive dataset. Often, such problems can be posed as maximizing a submodular set function subject to a cardinality constr…
The paper addresses statistical inference in matching markets with dependent missingness.
The claim arrival process to an insurance company is modeled by a compound Poisson process whose intensity and/or jump size distribution changes at an unobservable time with a known distribution. It is in the insurance company's interest to detect the change time as soon as possible in order to re-evaluate a new fair v…
New model optimizes assortment and pricing with dynamic customer arrivals.
New algorithm uses imperfect advice to improve online bipartite matching performance.
We describe a simple and efficient procedure for approximating the Lévy measure of a random variable. We use this approximation to derive a finite sum-representation that converges almost surely to Ferguson's representation of the Dirichlet process based on arrivals of a homogeneous Poisson process.…
This paper introduces a new class of Dynkin games, where the two players are allowed to make their stopping decisions at a sequence of exogenous Poisson arrival times. The value function and the associated optimal stopping strategy are characterized by the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation. The pa…
A scalable GP model for online uncertainty quantification over graphs.
Sequential screening and dynamic regret in multi-armed bandits with arriving arms
Proves Arnold-Thom conjecture for surfaces' arrival times.
We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of a market, such as the diffusion rate of prices, which is the standard measure…
E2Tree explains random forest models in regression tasks.
In many platforms, user arrivals exhibit a self-reinforcing behavior: future user arrivals are likely to have preferences similar to users who were satisfied in the past. In other words, arrivals exhibit positive externalities. We study multiarmed bandit (MAB) problems with positive externalities. We show that the self…
The hypothesis of randomness is fundamental in statistical machine learning and in many areas of nonparametric statistics; it says that the observations are assumed to be independent and coming from the same unknown probability distribution. This hypothesis is close, in certain respects, to the hypothesis of exchangeab…
We consider a classical risk process with arrival of claims following a non-stationary Hawkes process. We study the asymptotic regime when the premium rate and the baseline intensity of the claims arrival process are large, and claim size is small. The main goal of the article is to establish a diffusion approximation …
This paper tackles inventory control with general arrival dynamics and post-processing, improving profitability.
In this paper, we introduce Ballooning Multi-Armed Bandits (BL-MAB), a novel extension of the classical stochastic MAB model. In the BL-MAB model, the set of available arms grows (or balloons) over time. In contrast to the classical MAB setting where the regret is computed with respect to the best arm overall, the regr…
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give t…
In this paper we derive a scaling limit for an infinite dimensional limit order book model driven by Hawkes random measures. The dynamics of the incoming order flow is allowed to depend on the current market price as well as on a volume indicator. With our choice of scaling the dynamics converges to a coupled SDE-ODE s…
One-pass SGD converges in overparametrized neural networks with random data.
In this short paper we define the wealth process in a spin model for market microstructure, for individual agents and in aggregate. The agents in our model try to balance their desire to belong to the local majority (herding behavior), defined over random network neighborhoods, and the occasional advantage of belonging…
Study on queues with Hawkes arrivals, proving steady-state behavior and developing an efficient algorithm.
Optimal fund deployment strategy under uncertain deal arrivals.
We studied non-dynamical stochastic resonance for the number of trades in the stock market. The trade arrival rate presents a deterministic pattern that can be modeled by a cosine function perturbed by noise. Due to the nonlinear relationship between the rate and the observed number of trades, the noise can either enha…
We reconsider the problem of calculating a general spectral correlation function containing an arbitrary number of products and ratios of characteristic polynomials for a N x N random matrix taken from the Gaussian Unitary Ensemble (GUE). Deviating from the standard "supersymmetry" approach, we integrate out Grassmann …
The paper corrects bias in fluid approximation for better decision-making in stochastic optimization.
New algorithm for clustering data streams with no substitutions.
In a previous analysis the problem of "zero-inflated" time data (caused by high frequency trading in the electronic order book) was handled by left-truncating the inter-arrival times. We demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methods, that the Weibull distribution describes the corresponding stochastic dynamics for a…
We consider a simple model for the evolution of a limit order book in which limit orders of unit size arrive according to independent Poisson processes. The frequencies of buy limit orders below a given price level, respectively sell limit orders above a given level are described by fixed demand and supply functions. B…
In recent years, dynamically growing data and incrementally growing number of classes pose new challenges to large-scale data classification research. Most traditional methods struggle to balance the precision and computational burden when data and its number of classes increased. However, some methods are with weak pr…
For a monotonically advancing front, the arrival time is the time when the front reaches a given point. We show that it is twice differentiable everywhere with uniformly bounded second derivative. It is smooth away from the critical points where the equation is degenerate. We also show that the critical set has finite …
Order book dynamics play an important role in both execution time and price formation of orders in an exchange market. In this study, we aim to model the limit order arrival rates in the vicinity of the best bid and the best ask price levels. We use limit order book data for Garanti Bank, which is one of the most trade…
A learning-based algorithm optimizes admission control in a queuing system.
Study on neural network initialization with shaped infinite depth-and-width networks.