Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
Automates detection of fast-ramped flexibility events for DSOs.
problem Monitoring and supervising flexibility activations in power systems.
method Unsupervised detection and open-set classification.
result Automatically identifies critical flexibility activations for early intervention.
Study develops a machine learning-based ramp metering model to improve freeway efficiency.
problem Improving ramp metering to maintain freeway efficiency under various traffic conditions.
method Machine learning approach using historical data to predict and manage traffic flow.
result The novel model outperforms a baseline traffic-responsive ramp metering algorithm.
In this paper we show all possible ramps where an object can move with constant speed under the effect of gravity and friction. The planar ramp are very easy to describe, just rotate a curve with velocity vector (tanh(as),sech(as)). Recall that tanh(as)^2+sech^2(as) = 1. Therefore, the solution of the planar constant s…
The paper finds that circles and logarithmic spirals are the only constant-speed ramps for a specific force field.
problem Determining planar curves for constant-speed motion under specific force conditions.
method Analyzing the motion of a particle under friction and a central force field.
result Every solution to the constant-speed motion problem approaches either a circle or a logarithmic spiral.
Automates phased release strategy to balance risk and speed.
problem Balancing risk and speed in phased product releases.
method Formalizes as constrained batched bandit problem, uses adaptive Bayesian approach.
result Proposes algorithm that determines optimal release percentages.
In many machine learning scenarios, supervision by gold labels is not available and consequently neural models cannot be trained directly by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). In a weak supervision scenario, metric-augmented objectives can be employed to assign feedback to model outputs, which can be used to extract …
We study dynamic hedging of counterparty risk for a portfolio of credit derivatives. Our empirically driven credit model consists of interacting default intensities which ramp up and then decay after the occurrence of credit events. Using the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition of the counterparty risk price paymen…
SPADE improves demand forecasting accuracy by 4.5% for post-promotion periods.
problem Overreacting to peak events in demand forecasting leads to biased forecasts.
method SPADE splits forecasting into two tasks: one for peak events and another for post-peak events, using masked convolution filters and a specialized Peak Attention module.
result Overall PPE improvement of 4.5%, 30% improvement for most affected forecasts after promotions and holidays, and 3.9% improvement in PE accuracy.
Traditional plane-based clustering methods measure the cost of within-cluster and between-cluster by quadratic, linear or some other unbounded functions, which may amplify the impact of cost. This letter introduces a ramp cost function into the plane-based clustering to propose a new clustering method, called ramp-base…
Study improves adversarial classification using distributionally robust models.
problem Improving robustness against adversarial attacks in classification models.
method Distributionally robust chance constraints with Wasserstein ambiguity, reformulated as a regularized ramp loss minimization problem.
result Standard descent methods can converge to the global minimizer for the distributionally robust adversarial classification model.
In this paper we propose a tractable quadratic programming formulation for calculating the equilibrium term structure of electricity prices. We rely on a theoretical model described in [21], but extend it so that it reflects actually traded electricity contracts, transaction costs and liquidity considerations. Our nume…
Seesaw optimizes training by balancing learning rate and batch size, accelerating model pretraining.
problem Optimizing training efficiency for large language models with adaptive optimizers.
method Develops a principled framework for batch-size scheduling, introducing Seesaw which multiplies learning rate by 1/√2 and doubles batch size.
result Empirically, Seesaw reduces wall-clock time by approximately 36% compared to cosine decay, matching theoretical limits.
Paper establishes generalization bounds for RNNs and improves existing results.
problem Theoretical understanding and generalization bounds for RNNs.
method New generalization error bound and Rademacher complexity calculation.
result Improved generalization bounds for RNNs, tighter than existing bounds.
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of operations as the basis for measu…
It has been experimentally observed in recent years that multi-layer artificial neural networks have a surprising ability to generalize, even when trained with far more parameters than observations. Is there a theoretical basis for this? The best available bounds on their metric entropy and associated complexity measur…
We use surrogate losses to obtain several new regret bounds and new algorithms for contextual bandit learning. Using the ramp loss, we derive new margin-based regret bounds in terms of standard sequential complexity measures of a benchmark class of real-valued regression functions. Using the hinge loss, we derive an ef…
MLM models match or exceed RN in generating wind power time series without location info.
problem Generating accurate long-term wind power time series without location information.
method Applied neural networks to MERRA2 wind speed data with and without location info.
result MLM models produce time series of equal or better quality than RN.
iGNN tackles inverse graph prediction using invertible neural networks.
problem Inverse graph prediction problem in data analysis and machine learning.
method Developed invertible graph neural network (iGNN) to solve inverse prediction problem on graphs.
result iGNN model allows efficient generation from output labels and forward prediction.
Let f⋆ be a function on Rd with an assumption of a spectral norm vf⋆. For various noise settings, we show that E∥f^−f⋆∥2≤(vf⋆4nlogd)1/3, where n is the sample size and f^ is either a penalized lea…
Active learning is an important technique to reduce the number of labeled examples in supervised learning. Active learning for binary classification has been well addressed in machine learning. However, active learning of the reject option classifier remains unaddressed. In this paper, we propose novel algorithms for a…
Microlocal analysis provides deep insight into singularity structures and is often crucial for solving inverse problems, predominately, in imaging sciences. Of particular importance is the analysis of wavefront sets and the correct extraction of those. In this paper, we introduce the first algorithmic approach to extra…
Here we propose a general theoretical method for analyzing the risk bound in the presence of adversaries. Specifically, we try to fit the adversarial learning problem into the minimax framework. We first show that the original adversarial learning problem can be reduced to a minimax statistical learning problem by intr…
In this paper, we systemally study the long time behavior of the curve shortening flow in a closed or non-compact complete locally Riemannian symmetric manifold. Assume that we have a global flow. Then we can exhibit a a limit for the global behavior of the flow. In particular, we show the following results. 1). Let $\…
Case study shows impact of co-optimizing energy and reserve for wind energy.
problem Impact of lack of co-optimization of energy and reserve in high wind penetration scenarios.
method Developed two models with and without co-optimization, calibrated with Spanish market parameters.
result Models show significant differences in energy and reserve management.
Structured learning is appropriate when predicting structured outputs such as trees, graphs, or sequences. Most prior work requires the training set to consist of complete trees, graphs or sequences. Specifying such detailed ground truth can be tedious or infeasible for large outputs. Our main contribution is a large m…
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
Proposes a method to predict stock movements using fine-grained events from finance news.
problem Lack of specific semantic information in coarse-grained events for stock movement prediction.
method Built a finance event dictionary, extracted fine-grained events, combined with stock trade data, and used distant supervision for training.
result Method outperforms all baselines and shows good generalizability.
ProxiModel extracts high-quality news events from news corpora.
problem Mining high-quality structured event knowledge from noisy news data.
method ProxiModel uses a proximity-network to model event correlation within and across news corpora.
result ProxiModel efficiently and effectively extracts high-quality event descriptors and attributes.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
problem Class imbalance and inaccurate event detection in time series analysis.
method Regression-based approach to predict probability densities at event locations.
result Regression-based approaches outperform segmentation-based methods.
Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.
problem Estimating HTEs from time-to-event data with competing events.
method Outcome modeling approach using plug-in estimators for potential outcomes.
result Competing events introduce new challenges for HTE estimation.
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.
New method detects events with keywords, adapting to new types.
problem Adapting event detection to new types with predefined sets.
method Feature-based attention mechanism for CNNs.
result Benefits for new type extension and attention mechanism.
New method combines FMEA and Bayesian Network for root cause analysis in lithium-ion battery production.
problem Complex cause-effect relationships in lithium-ion battery production.
method Combining FMEA with Bayesian Network to detect and resolve inconsistencies.
result Holistic method builds large-scale cross-process Bayesian Failure Network for root cause analysis.
REST framework predicts stock trends by considering stock-specific and related-stock events.
problem Predicting stock trends using event information from news, social media, and discussion boards.
method REST framework addresses two main shortcomings of existing event-driven methods: stock-specific event influence and related-stock event influence.
result REST framework achieves higher investment returns compared to baselines.
GANs improve event generation in physics experiments.
problem Improving statistical precision in event generation.
method Used generative adversarial networks (GANs) to generate events.
result GANs amplify the statistical precision of the training sample.
New deep learning method handles rare and imbalanced events in time series.
problem Challenges in event detection in time series data, especially rare and imbalanced events.
method Supervised regression-based deep learning approach that handles various types of events.
result Superior performance across diverse domains, particularly for rare events and imbalanced datasets.
Combining multiple collider events improves machine learning performance.
problem Improving machine learning for collider physics.
method Study of single-event vs multi-event classifiers under IID assumption.
result Training single-event classifiers is more effective than multi-event classifiers.
The study uses financial events to predict stock market movements.
problem Predicting stock market movements using financial events.
method Combined event extraction method, BERT/ALBERT enhanced event representation, and extended hierarchical attention network.
result Significantly better accuracies and higher simulated returns compared to state-of-the-art models.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
Electroencephalography (EEG) during sleep is used by clinicians to evaluate various neurological disorders. In sleep medicine, it is relevant to detect macro-events (> 10s) such as sleep stages, and micro-events (<2s) such as spindles and K-complexes. Annotations of such events require a trained sleep expert, a time co…
Neural network model predicts alternating event-free periods.
problem Dynamic prediction of alternating recurrent events with statistical nuance.
method Developed an online dynamic prediction framework using neural network theory.
result Outstanding performance in predicting alternating recurrent event-free time.
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this…