arXiv research

Study develops a machine learning-based ramp metering model to improve freeway efficiency.

Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.

In this paper we show all possible ramps where an object can move with constant speed under the effect of gravity and friction. The planar ramp are very easy to describe, just rotate a curve with velocity vector (tanh(as),sech(as)). Recall that tanh(as)^2+sech^2(as) = 1. Therefore, the solution of the planar constant s…

The paper finds that circles and logarithmic spirals are the only constant-speed ramps for a specific force field.

In many machine learning scenarios, supervision by gold labels is not available and consequently neural models cannot be trained directly by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). In a weak supervision scenario, metric-augmented objectives can be employed to assign feedback to model outputs, which can be used to extract …

Detecting inaccurate smart meters and targeting them for replacement can save significant resources. For this purpose, a novel deep-learning method was developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and a modified convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict electricity usage trajectories based on historical data. F…

Due to limited metering infrastructure, distribution grids are currently challenged by observability issues. On the other hand, smart meter data, including local voltage magnitudes and power injections, are communicated to the utility operator from grid buses with renewable generation and demand-response programs. This…

Paper assesses the market value of sharing privacy-protected smart meter data.

Traditional plane-based clustering methods measure the cost of within-cluster and between-cluster by quadratic, linear or some other unbounded functions, which may amplify the impact of cost. This letter introduces a ramp cost function into the plane-based clustering to propose a new clustering method, called ramp-base…

Study improves adversarial classification using distributionally robust models.

Simplifying machine learning (ML) application development, including distributed computation, programming interface, resource management, model selection, etc, has attracted intensive interests recently. These research efforts have significantly improved the efficiency and the degree of automation of developing ML mode…

Recognizing a piece of writing as a poem or prose is usually easy for the majority of people; however, only specialists can determine which meter a poem belongs to. In this paper, we build Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models that can classify poems according to their meters from plain text. The input text is encoded …

This paper proposes a joint energy and data market to handle uncertainty in energy procurement.

In order to improve the efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems, most countries worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures, and in particular household smart meters, in the residential sector. This technology is able to record electricity load time series at a very high frequency rates, info…

Distribution grids currently lack comprehensive real-time metering. Nevertheless, grid operators require precise knowledge of loads and renewable generation to accomplish any feeder optimization task. At the same time, new grid technologies, such as solar photovoltaics and energy storage units are interfaced via invert…

Supervised learning with a deep convolutional neural network is used to identify the QCD equation of state (EoS) employed in relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of heavy-ion collisions from the simulated final-state particle spectra $ρ(p_T,Φ)$. High-level correlations of $ρ(p_T,Φ)$ learned by the neural network act a…

New method identifies distribution grid outages using smart meter data.

The paper develops a multi-unit soft sensing model for virtual flow meters that improves few-shot learning.

In this paper we propose a tractable quadratic programming formulation for calculating the equilibrium term structure of electricity prices. We rely on a theoretical model described in [21], but extend it so that it reflects actually traded electricity contracts, transaction costs and liquidity considerations. Our nume…

Active learning reduces smart meter data needs for better electric load predictions.

Hybrid approach protects privacy while analyzing smart meter data.

CROCS clusters consumer behaviour from smart meters, capturing variability and robustness.

Seesaw optimizes training by balancing learning rate and batch size, accelerating model pretraining.

Smart grid is an alternative solution of the conventional power grid which harnesses the power of the information technology to save the energy and meet today's environment requirements. Due to the inherent vulnerabilities in the information technology, the smart grid is exposed to a wide variety of threats that could …

Automates detection of fast-ramped flexibility events for DSOs.

Investigations have been performed into using clustering methods in data mining time-series data from smart meters. The problem is to identify patterns and trends in energy usage profiles of commercial and industrial customers over 24-hour periods, and group similar profiles. We tested our method on energy usage data p…

Automates phased release strategy to balance risk and speed.

Study shows Bitcoin mining with surplus electricity can boost KEPCO's financial stability.

Most electricity systems worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures to collect relevant operational data. In particular, smart meters allow tracking electricity load consumption at a very disaggregated level and at high frequency rates. This data opens the possibility of developing new forecasting models…

Residential homes constitute roughly one-fourth of the total energy usage worldwide. Providing appliance-level energy breakdown has been shown to induce positive behavioral changes that can reduce energy consumption by 15%. Existing approaches for energy breakdown either require hardware installation in every target ho…

Power meters are becoming a widely used tool for measuring training and racing effort in cycling, and are now spreading also to other sports. This means that increasing volumes of data can be collected from athletes, with the aim of helping coaches and athletes analyse and understanding training load, racing efforts, t…

Paper establishes generalization bounds for RNNs and improves existing results.

The use of fingerprinting localization techniques in outdoor IoT settings has started to gain popularity over the recent years. Communication signals of Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPWAN), such as LoRaWAN, are used to estimate the location of low power mobile devices. In this study, a publicly available dataset of Lo…

Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of operations as the basis for measu…

Adversarial attacks can fool ML energy theft detection models.

It has been experimentally observed in recent years that multi-layer artificial neural networks have a surprising ability to generalize, even when trained with far more parameters than observations. Is there a theoretical basis for this? The best available bounds on their metric entropy and associated complexity measur…

We use surrogate losses to obtain several new regret bounds and new algorithms for contextual bandit learning. Using the ramp loss, we derive new margin-based regret bounds in terms of standard sequential complexity measures of a benchmark class of real-valued regression functions. Using the hinge loss, we derive an ef…

A new risk measure (FRM) for EM FI returns helps investors protect against volatility and policy instability.

The paper proposes a new method for probabilistic load forecasting using Bernstein-Polynomial Normalizing Flows.

Deep learning model predicts European weather parameters.

Recently, the need of deploying new wireless networks for smart gas metering has raised the problem of radio planning in the169 MHz band. Unluckily, software tools commonly adopted for radio planning in cellular communication systems cannot be employed to solve this problem because of the substantially lower transmissi…

Let $f^{\star}$ be a function on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with an assumption of a spectral norm $v_{f^{\star}}$. For various noise settings, we show that $\mathbb{E}\|\hat{f} - f^{\star} \|^2 \leq \left(v^4_{f^{\star}}\frac{\log d}{n}\right)^{1/3}$, where $n$ is the sample size and $\hat{f}$ is either a penalized lea…

New methods improve electricity load forecasting using hierarchical transfer learning.

We study dynamic hedging of counterparty risk for a portfolio of credit derivatives. Our empirically driven credit model consists of interacting default intensities which ramp up and then decay after the occurrence of credit events. Using the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition of the counterparty risk price paymen…

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources poses numerous reliability issues to the urban distribution grid. The topology estimation is a critical step to ensure the robustness of distribution grid operation. However, the bus connectivity and grid topology estimation are usually hard in distribution gri…

In this paper, we take a new approach for time of arrival geo-localization. We show that the main sources of error in metropolitan areas are due to environmental imperfections that bias our solutions, and that we can rely on a probabilistic model to learn and compensate for them. The resulting localization error is val…

Smart Meters (SMs) are able to share the power consumption of users with utility providers almost in real-time. These fine-grained signals carry sensitive information about users, which has raised serious concerns from the privacy viewpoint. In this paper, we focus on real-time privacy threats, i.e., potential attacker…

Big spatio-temporal datasets, available through both open and administrative data sources, offer significant potential for social science research. The magnitude of the data allows for increased resolution and analysis at individual level. While there are recent advances in forecasting techniques for highly granular te…